Growth surprised stronger in spring (consumer spend + AI data-center capex did heavy lifting), but housing is still affordability-capped and inventories are weird by region.

I’ll cut through the noise and give you moves you can actually use this week.

Stay Up to Speed on Macro News!

We now send our macro-focused news via text, so you’re never far from the latest market-moving action.

👉 Click here to get our macro notes by text and always stay in the loop.

The Big Picture

Trade Policy

The Sequel Nobody Asked For: Tariffs vs. Tinseltown

Hollywood has seen its share of disasters, pandemics, strikes, streaming wars, but now it might be staring down a new villain: tariffs.

A proposed 100% duty on foreign-made films could flip the economics of moviemaking upside down.

The industry already balances razor-thin budgets with global audiences.

If filming abroad suddenly doubles in cost, studios face a choice: raise ticket and subscription prices or scrap projects entirely.

Either way, U.S. consumers get caught holding the popcorn bucket.

When Cheap Locations Get Pricey

Why does Hollywood film in Canada, Eastern Europe, or Australia? Simple—labor is cheaper, governments offer juicy tax breaks, and production dollars stretch further.

That math could disappear overnight if tariffs make overseas shoots financially toxic.

California might cheer short-term job gains as production “reshores.”

But in reality, studios could scale back, taking fewer creative risks and prioritizing blockbusters that can absorb the higher costs.

Quirky indies? They’ll be first on the chopping block.

Bigger Than the Box Office

Movies aren’t just entertainment; they’re one of America’s most powerful exports.

A tariff wall could spook global partners, invite retaliation, and weaken Hollywood’s dominance just as streaming makes content borderless.

The irony? Tariffs meant to protect U.S. film workers could shrink the industry instead.

If costs spiral, fewer movies get made, meaning fewer jobs and less cultural influence worldwide. The credits could roll on America’s role as the world’s storyteller.

Supply Chain

America Just Closed the Subsidiary Loophole — And Supply Chains Felt the Snap

The Commerce Department expanded its Entity List rule to cover subsidiaries owned 50 percent or more by blacklisted companies.

In one stroke, hundreds of firms that once slipped under the radar now face the same export restrictions as their parent.

That means licenses, delays, and denials for U.S. exporters shipping high-tech goods. For companies trying to keep contracts alive, compliance has just turned into a labyrinth.

Supply Chains Don’t Like Surprises

Every chip, machine, and software export now comes with an ownership check. One hidden affiliate and an innocent shipment become a federal violation.

Short-term allowances won’t soften the blow. With global supply webs already stretched, this new rule is like pulling threads on a fragile sweater.

The U.S. Tightens the Playbook

Treasury’s 50 percent rule for sanctions was already famous, and now Commerce has mirrored the same move.

The message is clear: there are no safe shelters left for firms tied to restricted entities.

America is making sure its tech exports stay firmly under its control. For allies and rivals alike, the leash just got shorter, and the consequences more costly.

Hidden Streams Found (Sponsored)

5 Companies Unlocking Hidden Revenue Streams

Your portfolio doesn’t need dozens of winners. Sometimes, just a few right picks can do the heavy lifting.

That’s the thinking behind our newest report: 5 Stocks Set to Double.

These companies were chosen because they combine:

• Proven fundamentals that deliver long-term strength

• Momentum signals suggesting explosive upside ahead

And while no outcome can be guaranteed, previous reports like this have spotlighted stocks before massive moves—+175%, +498%, even +673%.¹

Now, you can get the latest edition absolutely free—until midnight tonight.

[Click here to download instantly] 

This window won’t stay open. Act now.

*This free resource is being sent by Zacks. We identify investment resources you may choose to use in making your own decisions. Use of this resource is subject to the Zacks Terms of Service.
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk. This material does not constitute investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed dealer, broker, or investment adviser.

Global Markets

From Ranch to Ruin: U.S. Cattle Lose Their Biggest Customer

U.S. beef once carved out a premium spot in Chinese kitchens, pulling in over $120 million a month.

That pipeline has now shriveled to single-digit millions, while Australian ranchers ride the wave with record shipments.

For American cattlemen, the loss isn’t gradual but a cliff dive. Years of building market share vanished in months, replaced by competitors who stepped neatly into the gap.

Soybeans and Steak, Both Off the Menu

Beef isn’t the only casualty. Soybean exports, once a staple of U.S.-China trade, are also bleeding billions in lost shipments this harvest season.

Add in a drought-thinned cattle herd and record-high prices at home, and America’s farm sector is feeling the squeeze from all sides.

Meanwhile, Australia has cashed in. Monthly beef sales to China jumped by nearly $100 million compared to prior averages, proving that in global food trade, someone’s loss is always another’s feast.

The Bigger Picture of Food Power

The U.S. has long leaned on agricultural exports as a pillar of its trade strength. But when access evaporates in the world’s largest food market, that pillar starts to crack.

China’s demand hasn’t slowed; it has simply shifted to other suppliers. And right now, the dinner plate tilts firmly toward Australia..

Metrics to Watch

• GDP Revision: Q2 real GDP revised up to 3.8% as consumers kept spending and AI-related IP/software surged. Great backdrop for quality growth; don’t overread it into a rip-roaring H2.
  

• Jobless Claims (Thu): Initial claims fell to ~218k last week as volatility faded, no big layoff wave. Softening labor, not breaking looks like, and if we stay ~220k-ish, it argues for steady (not frantic) cuts.
  

• Durable Goods (Thu): Headline +2.9% on an aircraft surge; ex-transport +0.4%. Read: capex isn’t dead; watch core goods orders trend for Q4 earnings tell.
  

• Existing Home Sales (Thu): 4.0M SAAR (-0.2% m/m) with the median at $422.6k (+2% y/y). Rates flirting with ~6.3% help at the margin, but price/income math still bites.
  

• Housing Split (ongoing): Builders pushing incentives where supply is bloated; Midwest/Northeast tighter. Track buy-downs vs. ASPs, as margin color matters more than unit counts.

Market Movers

🧾 Claims Cool, Cut Cadence Calms
With claims back to ~218k, the cut path is still on, but we think measured. Keep 2–5y duration overweight vs. cash and favor A/BBB credit over HY beta while the labor tape drifts, not dives.

🏠 Housing: Rates Help, Prices Don’t
Purchase apps perk when 30-yr hovers near ~6.3%, yet affordability + sticky prices cap volume.

Prefer building-products names tied to Midwest/Northeast and defensive REITs with clean balance sheets; be picky with builders leaning on heavy incentives.

✈️ Durables Pop (Thanks, Aircraft)
Headline orders jumped on planes; the signal for you is core ex-transport +0.4%. Steady, not sizzling.

Tilt toward mission-critical capex beneficiaries (automation, power, thermal, AI infrastructure) over broad cyclicals.

🤖 AI Capex Tailwind
Data-center spend is ripping, and IP/software investment posted its best run since the late ’90s.

That keeps a floor under quality growth and AI adjacencies (semicap equipment, power gear, select cloud).

🥇 Gold as Fiscal/Vol Hedge
With deficits loud and term premium jumpy, a measured gold sleeve (5–10%) still makes sense as ballast. (Even Dalio’s waving the shiny flag.)

Pair with duration for a clean hedge stack.

Market Impacts

Equities: September’s vibe is buy the leaders, fade the euphoria. After notching fresh highs mid-month, the tape cooled as AI darlings wobbled and rate-cut odds got repriced.

Under the hood the mega-cap, cash-rich compounders still carried the load and small caps perked but remain choppy.

With PCE and payrolls on deck, play it like a pro, add on orderly dips, don’t chase vertical moves, and keep a sleeve for AI infrastructure/semicap where capex is real, not just vibes.

Bonds: Yields climbed back toward the top of the month’s range as GDP was revised stronger and claims surprised lower.

The 10-yr hovering around ~4.15–4.20% says cuts are coming, but not a sprint. Base case is a gentle bull-steepener if growth cools; deficits/supply keep the long end sticky.

Tactics you can use are to buy 2–5y on backups, carry some long-end hedges, and keep dry powder for any PCE surprise.

Currencies: The dollar finished the month with a late-stage flex as it became firmer vs. EUR/JPY as U.S. data beat and the Fed telegraphed measured easing.

Into the next data wave, look at the soft inflation = USD drift lower and some relief for Europe/EM FX.

Hot prints could mean a quick USD pop and growth FX wobble. Keep timeframes tight and stops tighter.

Commodities: Gold is basically wearing a permanent crown. It’s near records on cuts ahead + policy/geo noise.

It’s still a clean stabilizer alongside duration. Crude’s two-step continued with geopolitics and draws squeeze up, oversupply/weak diesel demand lean it back down.

Until demand re-accelerates, sell rips in oil and prefer refiners/transport over high-beta upstream.

Designed For Virality (Sponsored)

This Brand's Merch Goes Viral-By Design

With built-in tech to launch and scale viral gear, this company isn't following trends-it's setting them.

A recent equity deal with Alabama -- just lit the fuse.

Find out how this model is built to dominate before Wall St. catches on

Key Indicators to Watch

• PCE & Core PCE (Fri, 8:30 a.m. ET)
  The Fed’s favorite. A 0.2–0.3% m/m keeps measured cuts in play, hotter risks a front-end repricing and stronger USD.
  

• JOLTS Job Openings (Tue, 10:00 a.m.)
  Openings around ~7.2M would confirm cooling, not cracking economy. A sharp drop revives back-to-back cut chatter and helps duration.
  

• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Tue, 10:00 a.m.)
  If confidence can’t lift with equities near highs and mortgage rates easing, the fragile consumer narrative hardens, which would be good for staples/value retail, tougher for discretionary.
  

• ISM Manufacturing (Wed, 10:00 a.m.)
  Sub-50 = goods softness persists (bullish duration, mixed for cyclicals). Watch prices paid vs. new orders for margin read-through.
  

• Nonfarm Payrolls / Unemployment Rate (Fri, 8:30 a.m.)
  Consensus ~22k, UR ~4.3%. Another soft print with tame wages = green light for October cuts; any upside surprise strengthens USD and nudges the back end higher.

Everything Else

• Trump’s latest tariff threat is hanging over robotics and medical devices, with a fresh Section 232 probe raising supply chain headaches.

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted that stock prices look richly valued, a reminder that the market’s AI sugar high might not be permanent.

• The OECD upgraded its growth forecasts, pointing to stronger-than-expected momentum in both the U.S. and abroad despite tariff and labor headwinds.

• August saw new home sales jump, thanks to lower mortgage rates and builders sweetening the deal with incentives.

• Meanwhile, Fed governor Stephen Miran pushed for faster rate cuts, though some of his colleagues argued for a slower pace to keep inflation in check.