Hello and welcome to Macro Notes, your go-to source for the latest macroeconomic trends, market-moving news, and key indicators to watch. We cut through the noise to bring you actionable insights in just a few minutes.

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The Big Picture

Geopolitics

Global Mobility Faces Jolt as U.S. Issues Broad Entry Restrictions

A sweeping U.S. travel ban will take effect on Monday, blocking entry for citizens from 12 countries, marking a return to hardline border policies with global consequences. The ban also imposes partial restrictions on seven additional nations.

Affected regions include parts of the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia. Citizens without current U.S. visas and who are outside American borders as of June 9 will be barred from entering the United States under the proclamation.

Travelers from countries such as Afghanistan, Iran, Libya, and Myanmar are included in the comprehensive ban list, while others, like Cuba and Turkmenistan, face limited entry criteria. The policy cites a lack of data-sharing, security screening capabilities, and concerns over terrorism-linked migration.

Airlines, student visa programs, multinational employers, and tourism agencies may need to recalibrate their operations. With certain visa categories restricted or delayed, international enrollment in U.S. universities and cross-border business mobility are expected to be impacted. For global industries tied to U.S. travel flows, this signals a broader shift in the market. 

Visa-dependent markets, particularly in education, aviation, and labor mobility, are likely to experience disruptions. Humanitarian organizations may also face barriers in reuniting families or relocating personnel from affected countries.

The geopolitical layer is equally sharp. As the U.S. draws new lines on who can enter and why, bilateral relationships with banned nations may cool further, potentially triggering reciprocal travel measures or legal challenges in international courts.

Whether this remains a standalone policy or part of a longer-term tightening agenda remains to be seen.

Energy & Utilities

U.S. Grid Struggles to Keep Up as Global Energy Investment Hits Record $3.3 Trillion 

Global energy investment is expected to reach a record $3.3 trillion in 2025, but the International Energy Agency warns that U.S. grid infrastructure is falling behind the soaring demand for clean energy and the growth of AI-fueled data centers.

Clean energy technologies are expected to absorb $2.2 trillion globally this year, with the U.S. driving a significant portion of that shift. Investments in solar, storage, small modular reactors (SMRs), and geothermal energy are increasing, driven by federal incentives and corporate procurement deals. But rapid electrification is now exposing deep weaknesses in America’s aging power grid.

More than 90% of U.S. data center operators cite electricity supply as their top concern, with grid capacity falling far short of their needs. While data centers typically take 3 to 6 years to build, new grid infrastructure often takes 5 to 15 years to complete. This disconnect is now a bottleneck to growth in key sectors like AI, cloud computing, and advanced manufacturing.

Since becoming a net energy exporter, the U.S. has steadily reduced fossil fuel investment from 60% to under 40% of total energy spending. Yet, grid and transmission upgrades haven’t kept pace with the acceleration of clean tech.

The IEA views the U.S. as emerging as a leader in next-generation nuclear and geothermal innovation but warns that without faster investment in grid modernization, these technologies could be hindered by infrastructure limitations.

For long-term energy stability, the U.S. will need to match its clean energy ambition with equally aggressive power network upgrades.

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Consumer

From Plentiful to Scarce: U.S. Vape Market Hit Hard by China Crackdown

U.S. retailers are staring at a growing vape shortage as tariffs on Chinese goods and aggressive FDA seizures tighten the supply of unauthorized e-cigarette brands like Geek Bar.

Imports of vapes from China declined significantly in May, with only 71 shipments recorded compared to nearly 1,200 during the same month last year. The sharp drop follows tariff increases under President Trump, peaking at 145% before settling at 30%, and renewed enforcement against unauthorized vaping products.

Tariffs and seizures have reshaped what was once a loosely regulated flow of flavored e-cigarettes into the U.S. market. Retailers now report supply cuts of up to 90%, with wholesalers rationing inventory and warning of future reductions tied to rising costs and policy pressure.

The consequences are clear: higher prices, lower availability, and mounting uncertainty for the vape retail sector. While some suppliers may absorb part of the tariff impact due to high margins, ongoing enforcement, and import friction raise doubts about the long-term viability.

From a policy perspective, the disruption highlights how trade measures and health regulations can intersect, restricting not only illicit imports but also consumer access to widely used alternatives. 

For the broader U.S. retail ecosystem, this may be a preview of how enforcement-driven scarcity reshapes the grey market for goods.

Metrics to Watch

• Dollar’s Worst Drop in Decades: The U.S. dollar fell by 8.8% since January, the biggest YTD drop since 1985.  

• U.S. Debt: The House-passed tax bill will add a whopping $2.5 trillion to the national debt by 2035, a huge increase despite supposed plans to slash the deficit. 

• Dent-to-GDP: At that pace, America’s debt-to-GDP level will bust 200% by 2055 (a clearly unsustainable stat).  

• Beige Book: The Fed’s Beige Book release revealed that 9/12 Fed districts saw economic contraction in the most recent poll. 

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Market Movers

🇨🇳 Chinese Retailers Feeling the Heat: Shein and Temu are seeing eComm sales slow significantly after Trump’s sweeping trade policy tweaks closed the infamous “de minimis” shipping cost loophole. Temu’s daily active users fell by more than half in May compared to March, putting pressure on the once-lucrative enterprises.  

⭕️ Make IPOs Great Again: Circle raised a whopping $1.1 billion in an upsized initial public offering, generating “proof of life” for the once-floundering IPO market. Circle’s IPO is unique in that it is one of the few pure-play crypto stocks on the market (proving the wider asset class’ tailwinds) and another win for fintech listings following eToro’s recent IPO success (NASDAQ: ETOR). 

🧐  Economists Question Quality: Private sector economists are questioning how accurate U.S. inflation data is after a report revealed that staffing and headcount cuts at the Bureau of Labor Statistics reduced the net quantity of price check polling. Although all acknowledge that they don’t believe the cuts are a deliberate attempt to fudge the numbers, it does raise questions about the “almost too rosy” economic picture fueling current stock gains. 

🤖 Bezos’ Answer to Optimus: Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is entering the autonomous, humanoid robot market currently “dominated” Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) (though little has materialized on the consumer front).The company wrapped construction of a training facility in San Francisco, and reportedly plans to use the walking, talking robots to replace stockroom and delivery staff.

Market Impacts

Robotics is clearly a growth sector, considering Tesla and Amazon’s planned humanoid robots (not to mention plenty of existing and deployed hardware automations globally). Picking specific next-gen robotics stocks is tricky, though, especially if you don’t know the ins-and-outs of technical hardware specs.

This makes the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (NASDAQ: BOTZ) a great all-weather robotics pick to snag long-term robotics momentum. BOTZ has longstanding robotics heavyweights like Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) as part of its portfolio alongside smaller upstarts like Symbotic (NASDAQ: SYM). It also offers access to international robotics markets through investments in foreign stocks, such as Doosan Robotics (Korea) and Yaskawa Electric (Japan). 

• Expense Ratio: 0.68%, or $68 per $10,000 invested.

• Total Assets: $2.6 billion

• YTD Performance: -1.72% 

Top 3 Holdings: Nvidia, Intuitive Surgical, and ABB Group.

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Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 U.S. Employment & Unemployment (May) – June 6th: A cooling labor market could spark rate cuts, even if tariff-induced inflation rises.  

• 📅 Consumer Credit (April) – June 6th: Credit utilization has been on the rise since December 2024, and pre-tariff spending sprees may have made it worse. 

• 📅 NFIB Optimism Index (May) – June 10th: Small biz optimism cratered in April - don’t expect much to change in May’s report.

Everything Else

• This long read addresses most of the concerns surrounding U.S. inflation data quality and paints a concerning picture.  

• China’s rare earth export ban is starting to create havoc among automakers. 

• Kill the bill? Musk lashes out at the President’s planned tax bill.

• We’ve covered nuclear energy prospects extensively by this point, but Barron’s highlights a large-cap player entering the small modular reactor market. 

• Proposed (further) Russia tariffs could increase energy bills for Americans.