The Supreme Court tried to take the tariff remote away, and the White House responded by buying a new remote.

A fresh 15% global tariff is live, it comes with a 150-day timer, and it puts every supply chain manager back into spreadsheet mode.

Meanwhile, consumers say they feel a bit better, the dollar is catching support as rate-cut bets get trimmed, and crypto is acting like a mood ring for risk.

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The Big Picture

Supply Chain

The U.S. Just Discovered Its Aerospace and Chip Industries Share the Same Weak Link

U.S. aerospace and semiconductor supply chains are running low on rare-earth materials, which are almost entirely sourced from China.

Yttrium, used in coatings that prevent jet engines from melting, is now roughly 69 times more expensive than a year ago.

Some North American manufacturers have already paused production and started rationing supply to protect their largest clients.

Chinese exports of yttrium to the U.S. collapsed from 333 tons to just 17 tons over comparable eight-month periods. The trade truce was supposed to ease this — it has not.

Chips Are Next in Line

Scandium, a niche element critical to 5G chip manufacturing, is in equally short supply. The U.S. has zero domestic production and stockpiles measured in months, not years.

Every 5G smartphone and base station relies on components built with scandium.

When supply runs this thin across a technology that underpins modern connectivity, the vulnerability is not theoretical — it is operational.

Leverage Sits Where the Minerals Are

This is not a pricing problem — it is a structural one.

Two of America's most strategically important industries depend on materials controlled overwhelmingly by a single foreign supplier.

Alternative supply chains are years away from meaningful scale, and the diplomatic window to resolve access keeps shifting with each summit cycle.

The U.S. economy can absorb higher costs. What it cannot afford is production lines going quiet because a few dozen tons of material never arrived.

Trade

The U.S. Just Entered a Trade Experiment With a Built-In Expiration Date

A fresh round of global tariffs took effect this week under a legal authority that caps rates at 15% and expires in 150 days without Congressional approval.

The structure replaces the sweeping duties struck down by the Supreme Court, but it introduces its own set of constraints.

For the U.S. economy, temporary tariffs create a unique problem.

Companies cannot commit to long-term pricing, sourcing, or investment decisions when the rules have a five-month shelf life and an uncertain sequel.

The Backfire Risk Is Real

Higher import costs land directly on American consumers and manufacturers who depend on foreign inputs.

With affordability already a top concern heading into midterm elections, the tension between trade policy and household budgets is tightening fast.

Trading partners are not standing still either.

Europe has paused its trade deal ratification, and any escalation toward 15% on select countries risks retaliatory moves that shrink U.S. export markets further.

Where Does This Land?

The 150-day window forces a decision point that Congress has avoided for years — whether to codify a durable trade framework or let temporary measures keep cycling.

Markets, supply chains, and consumer prices all need long-term visibility that rolling short-term authorities cannot provide.

The U.S. economy is large enough to absorb tariff friction, but not indefinitely.

Every reset without resolution erodes business confidence, weakens allied trade relationships, and makes the eventual adjustment costlier than it needed to be.

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Healthcare

The Most Expensive Healthcare System in the World Keeps Getting Pricier

The U.S. spends more on healthcare than any country on earth, and two-thirds of Americans say they are seriously worried about affording it.

Whether it is a prescription, an insurance premium, or an emergency room visit, the cost of staying healthy has become one of the biggest financial pressures facing households nationwide.

Decades of reform efforts have failed to bend the curve in any lasting way.

Drug prices rise, insurance premiums follow, and the system absorbs each new policy tweak without delivering meaningful relief at the checkout counter.

Everyone Has an Incentive Except the Patient

The pricing chain between a drug manufacturer and a pharmacy shelf is packed with intermediaries, each taking a cut that inflates the final price.

Transparency rules have been introduced, but compliance remains patchy, and the information patients receive is often more confusing than helpful.

Insurance adds another layer.

Premiums depend on how many people are in the pool and what services get used, meaning costs rise alongside utilization, and utilization keeps climbing as the population ages and chronic conditions grow.

Healthcare Is an Economic Issue, Not Just a Medical One

When households spend more on medical bills, they spend less on everything else.

That drag shows up in consumer confidence, retail spending, and savings rates across the economy.

The U.S. economy cannot outgrow a healthcare cost problem that absorbs an increasing share of household income each year.

Until the pricing structure changes, affordability stress keeps building — and the ripple reaches far beyond the doctor's office.

Metrics to Watch

• Tariff Timer and Next Move
  This is a temporary lever unless Congress extends it, so the market will trade every hint about whether the tariff stays, shrinks, or morphs into a bigger plan.
  

• Exemptions Map
  The carve-outs matter. Goods like certain pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, defense items, and USMCA compliant Canada and Mexico products change who gets hit and who gets a free pass.
  

• Price Pass-Through
  Watch tariff-sensitive stuff that hits carts fast, like appliances, furniture, and cars. If prices keep creeping, inflation stays sticky even if headline prints look calmer.
  

• Consumer Confidence vs. Consumer Reality
  Confidence improved, but people are still complaining about prices and the cost of goods. If confidence rises while spending stays cautious, that usually means households feel better but still do math.
  

• Risk Appetite Gauges
  Bitcoin and other high-beta assets are still trading like a proxy for nerves. If risk stays fragile, defensive equity leadership usually holds up better.

Market Movers

🧾 Tariffs are Back, Just with Different Paperwork
The court ruling did not kill the tariff story; it changed the legal landscape.

That keeps uncertainty high, and markets usually reward companies with pricing power and cleaner supply chains.

💵 Dollar Support is a Signal, Not a Victory Lap
As rate-cut expectations get dialed back, the dollar tends to firm.

That can pressure commodities and overseas earnings translations, while helping import-heavy businesses on cost.

🛍️ Consumers Feel Better, but Prices Still Annoy Them
Confidence ticked up, yet inflation chatter and trade worries are still top of mind.

That usually means spending holds, but it rotates toward value and essentials when budgets get tight.

🏠 Housing is Still the Slow Leak
Home prices are cooling in a slow, frustrating way, and affordability is still doing the heavy lifting.

That keeps housing and housing-adjacent demand from turning into a clean growth tailwind.

Market Impacts

Equities: Futures are a touch higher as traders warm up for a big tech earnings gut check and try to figure out what the new tariff plan really means in practice.

The recent bounce in software and semis suggests the panic has cooled, but nobody is calling it a straight-line recovery.

How to play it: Keep your core in profitable leaders and businesses with real demand. If you are buying the dip, do it in small bites, not one heroic swipe.

Tech can still lead, but it is going to make you earn it.

Bonds: Treasury yields are mostly steady as markets balance tariff uncertainty, inflation risk, and the next Fed move.

The front end is still the most sensitive to any shift in rate expectations, while the long end keeps one eye on deficits and one eye on growth.

How to play it: The two-to-five-year pocket still looks like the easiest way to earn income without riding every headline.

Keep dry powder in cash and short bills so you can react without panic.

Currencies: The dollar is firming as tariff talk stays hot and global uncertainty keeps investors in a defensive posture.

The yen is wobbling on hints that Japan’s leadership may not love higher rates, which makes the market rethink how fast tightening can happen there.

How to play it: Keep horizons short. FX has been headline-driven, and tariff surprises can move the dollar faster than data can.

Commodities: Oil backed off after Iran signaled it is willing to take steps toward a deal, but the Middle East risk premium is still in the mix.

Gold cooled from a recent high as the dollar strengthened and traders took profits, though safe-haven demand has not disappeared.

How to play it: Oil is still a headline trade, so size it accordingly. Gold still works as insurance, but it is better held in calm sizing than chased after spikes.

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Key Indicators to Watch

• Initial Jobless Claims (Thu, Feb. 26, 8:30 a.m. ET) - A clean weekly read on layoffs. If claims stay calm, the economy is still holding together. If they jump, rate-cut chatter usually comes back quickly.
  

• Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman testifies (Thu, Feb. 26, 10:00 a.m. ET) - This is a tone check. Markets will listen for how worried the Fed is about inflation staying sticky versus growth slowing. A more hawkish lean can lift yields and the dollar.
  

• Producer Price Index, Jan. delayed (Fri, Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m. ET) - This is the pipeline inflation gauge. If producer prices run hot, companies either eat the cost or pass it on. Either way, it changes the mood for stocks and bonds.
  

• Core PPI, Jan. delayed (Fri, Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m. ET) - The cleaner version of producer inflation. A soft read helps the idea that inflation is cooling. A firm read keeps the Fed cautious.
  

• Chicago Business Barometer, Feb. (Fri, Feb. 27, 9:45 a.m. ET) - A quick pulse on business activity. Strength supports cyclicals and industrials. Weakness supports defensives and the case for easier policy later.

Everything Else

• 🇨🇳 The tariff ruling gave Beijing a little extra swagger heading into spring talks, boosting summit leverage.

• 📈 December inflation ran hotter than hoped on the Fed’s favorite gauge, keeping the market stuck in wait-and-see mode.

• 🚢 The U.S. trade deficit stayed huge in 2025 even with tariffs flying, with imports still doing their own thing.

• 🙂 Consumer confidence nudged higher in February, but people are still complaining about prices and politics.

• 🏭 Factory orders slipped in December as commercial aircraft bookings cooled, another sign the goods side of the economy is losing steam.