• Macro Notes
  • Posts
  • Cautious Carts Slide Into Value, Membership, and Everyday Eats

Cautious Carts Slide Into Value, Membership, and Everyday Eats

In partnership with

Shoppers are hunting bargains, skipping some splurges, and still treating themselves to meals out.

Confidence fell, wholesale prices nudged higher, and the Fed has a messy December setup.

Your move is simple: own mid caps that monetize value, membership, and routine spend while you add on dips.

Join Derek Jeter and Adam Levine

They’re both investors in AMASS Brands. And you can join them. Why invest? Their rapid growth spans everything from organic wine to protein seltzers. So with consumers prioritizing health in the $900B beverage market, it’s no surprise AMASS earned $80M+ already, including 1,000% year-over-year growth. They even reserved the Nasdaq ticker $AMSS. Become an AMASS shareholder and secure limited-time bonus stock by Dec. 4.

This is a paid advertisement for AMASS’s Regulation CF offering. Please read the offering circular at https://invest.amassbrands.com

Shutdown-delayed data say September retail sales rose 0.2% versus 0.3% expected, with pressure on tariff-heavy categories like vehicles, electronics, and apparel.

Restaurants, personal care, and furniture saw better traction, which matches a consumer that trims big buys and keeps small joys. 

Confidence slid to 88.7 in November as hiring signals softened and producer prices firmed 0.3% month over month, keeping inflation sticky around 3%.

That mix leaves the Fed split heading into its meeting: some want to protect jobs with another trim, others want to hold to avoid reheating prices.

What matters for you is the spending migration. Value concepts, membership clubs, and everyday food occasions tend to gain share when wallets feel tight.

Translation risk and tariff pass-through hit global brands harder than domestic value chains.

Keep the playbook tight with cash-flow quality, price leadership, and unit growth you can count on.

Stay Up to Speed on Macro News!

We now send our macro-focused news via text, so you’re never far from the latest market-moving action.

Actionable Stuff

  • Stage entries in thirds. Start a position, add on any no-cut wobble, add again after the next big data drop.

  • Favor value engines. Membership models, off-price closeouts, and price leaders that win trade-down.

  • Stick to domestic revenue. Reduce FX noise while the data are noisy.

  • Keep optionality. Short T-bills or a HYSA for fast adds when headlines shake sentiment.

  • Borrowers: if you can refi to a meaningfully lower payment, take the base hit now and revisit later.

Poll: You find $100 bill on the ground. What do you do?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Urgent Review Window (Sponsored)

Only a few stocks at any given moment sit in what analysts call the high-opportunity zone.

This new report identifies 5 companies reaching that point right now.

Each one has a blend of improving fundamentals and rising market confidence.

Access the report while it is still free.

Download the High-Opportunity Report

*This free resource is being sent by Zacks. We identify investment resources you may choose to use in making your own decisions. Use of this resource is subject to the Zacks Terms of Service.
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk. This material does not constitute investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed dealer, broker, or investment adviser.

Top Picks

Grocery Outlet (NASDAQ: GO)

When shoppers tighten up, the store that treats every aisle like a treasure hunt tends to win.

Grocery Outlet buys excess and closeout inventory from big brands and turns it into sharp everyday deals, which lines up perfectly with a bargain-hunting mood.

The selection changes often enough that people pop in more frequently, and those repeat trips matter when headline retail is slowing.

Holiday season helps too, since party snacks, pantry fillers, and last-minute treats are easy yeses at a discount.

Local operators know their neighborhoods and lean into what sells, so shelves feel relevant rather than random.

Even if tariffs keep certain categories pricey, GO’s model can flex to whatever is available at value.

You’re not betting on a luxury basket here; you’re leaning into sensible groceries that clear quickly and keep traffic steady.

Five Below (NASDAQ: FIVE)

Gifts under $10 are about to carry a lot of holiday weight, and that is Five Below’s home court.

The stores are simple to shop, the tables are full of seasonal toys, candy, and gadgets, and the prices stay impulse-friendly even if confidence wobbles. 

Constant product refresh keeps kids and teens interested without the retailer eating giant markdowns later.

The newer “Five Beyond” wall gives room for a handful of bigger items without losing the value vibe.

In a world of cautious carts, this format lets families say yes to fun without blowing the budget.

Store growth still has a long runway in new towns and strip centers, which means more visibility just as people hunt for deals.

If the consumer stays choosy, FIVE’s quick turns and predictable price points make it an easy add.

Dutch Bros (NYSE: BROS)

Small luxuries tend to survive slow patches, and a drive-thru coffee run is the definition of a tiny pick-me-up.

Dutch Bros leans on speed, friendly crews, and playful limited-time drinks that keep lines moving and tickets steady without scaring wallets. 

Morning traffic gives a base, and afternoon energy drinks add a second rush that smooths the day.

The app and rewards nudge repeat visits and make promotions easy to test across new markets.

Store openings are still pacing well, so growth can come from new doors even if same-store momentum cools a touch. 

You do not need a booming economy for people to grab a latte on the go; you just need consistent service and a price that feels fair.

As bigger splurges get deferred, this kind of “little treat” tends to show up more often.

Floor & Decor (NYSE: FND)

Homeowners may put off the dream kitchen, but they still fix floors, bathrooms, entryways, and backsplashes before company comes over.

Floor & Decor’s warehouse layout, big in-stock selection, and everyday pricing make those projects easier to start and finish. 

Pros like the assortment and inventory depth, while DIY shoppers get design ideas and straightforward value in one stop.

The mix naturally tilts toward practical upgrades that make a visible difference without a contractor army. 

If mortgage rates drift lower, traffic can get a second wind, but FND does not need a housing boom to move tile and waterproof plank.

New store openings add reach, and once customers complete one room, they often come back with the next project in mind.

It is a clean way to ride the “refresh, not remodel” trend while the broader consumer looks for smart wins.

Pattern Trigger Detected (Sponsored)

Markets are shifting fast, and a handful of stocks are now standing out for their strength and short-term potential.

The latest list pinpoints 7 stocks that could be poised for quick gains based on performance signals proven over decades.

Only a few names make the cut each cycle and once momentum builds, it rarely lasts long.

Check the report before the next leg higher begins.

Access the Free 7 Best Stocks Report

Bottom Line

Consumers are cautious, not comatose. They are trading down on big buys, chasing value on basics, and still saying yes to a good meal.

You can ride that mix with mid caps that turn membership fees, closeout racks, fast-casual bowls, and pizza-by-the-slice into steady cash.

Start now, add on noise, and let everyday traffic compound while the Fed decides how brave it feels in December.

That’s it for today’s edition—thanks for reading! Reply to this email with any feedback or let me know which macro trends or markets you’d like me to cover next.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Macro Notes