Hello and welcome to Macro Notes, your go-to source for the latest macroeconomic trends, market-moving news, and key indicators to watch. We cut through the noise to bring you actionable insights in just a few minutes.

The Big Picture

Industrial

Foreign Deal, Local Focus: Nippon’s U.S. Steel Buy Reshapes Industry Future 

Nippon Steel has finalized its $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel, creating one of the world’s largest steelmakers and marking a defining shift in the U.S. industrial landscape.

The deal pairs a storied American company with foreign ownership but under conditions designed to protect national interests.

As part of the agreement, Nippon will invest $11 billion into U.S. Steel by 2028.

This share arrangement gives the U.S. government authority over key decisions, including potential plant closures, job transfers, or shifts in production beyond American borders.

These safeguards aim to secure domestic operations while allowing fresh capital to flow into the business.

Market observers are closely tracking how this new structure impacts domestic steel pricing, capacity planning, and trade relationships.

The mix of private foreign investment and direct U.S. government oversight introduces a model that could influence industrial policy and supply chain strategies for years to come.

U.S. Steel’s headquarters will remain in Pittsburgh.

The company’s top executive role and the majority of its board seats will be held by U.S. citizens, reinforcing commitments to American leadership and manufacturing.

These conditions seek to protect jobs and preserve production strength in critical sectors such as infrastructure, automotive, and defense.

This deal signals a new chapter for the U.S. steel sector, blending global capital with national controls to shape its future.

Capital Markets

Foreign Buyers Now Hold Record Share of U.S. Stocks as Trade Fuels Demand 

Foreign investors now hold 18% of the U.S. stock market, marking the highest level ever recorded.

The growth highlights how global trade activity fuels demand for American equities. 

Capital earned from exporting goods to the U.S. is often reinvested in U.S. assets, including stocks, thereby reinforcing the link between trade and financial markets.

Payments from international sales create steady dollar flows into American markets. Each transaction helps fund foreign purchases of U.S. equities, creating a feedback loop that supports the stock market.

This pattern has become increasingly crucial as foreign trade surpluses with the U.S. continue to grow.

American markets continue to attract foreign investors because of their size, liquidity, and role in the global financial system.

Even as the S&P 500 trades below its all-time high, international demand remains strong. This illustrates how global trade patterns have become a crucial component of the U.S. market's strength.

Future shifts in trade policy or economic balance could affect this dynamic.

As capital flows continue to shape the stock market, investors and policymakers alike must account for the broader forces that drive equity demand beyond domestic factors.

Housing

Tariffs and Rates Push U.S. Housing Starts to Lowest in Five Years 

U.S. housing starts fell by almost 10%, slipping to an annual pace of about 1.26 million units, the lowest level in five years.

Builders are stepping back as tariffs raise material costs and mortgage rates stay high.

Trade disputes and financial pressures are straining an industry that fuels jobs and spending across the economy.

Higher prices for imported materials are making it harder to price and plan projects.

Uncertainty over tariffs adds to the challenge, while expensive borrowing keeps many buyers on the sidelines. The slowdown is starting to ripple through sectors tied to housing.

Construction firms, lumber suppliers, home goods makers, and mortgage lenders are all feeling the pressure as fewer new projects break ground.

Many builders are delaying plans or offering bigger incentives to sell unsold homes.

Companies are adjusting to the more challenging conditions, trimming their margins, and rethinking expansion plans.

Some are holding off on starting new work until costs and demand become clearer.

Housing remains a key driver of U.S. economic health. The slowdown reflects the combined drag of trade policy, interest rates, and shifting consumer confidence.

How long this pause lasts could influence broader growth in the months ahead.

Metrics to Watch

• Federal Funds Rate: The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25% - 4.5% on June 18, 2025, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change, as policymakers monitor tariff-driven inflation risks.

• Inflation Outlook: The Fed revised its 2025 PCE inflation forecast to 3.1%, reflecting concerns over tariff-induced price pressures, with core CPI at 2.8% in June.

• GDP Growth: The Fed cut its 2025 GDP growth projection to 1.4% from 1.7%, signaling slower economic expansion amid trade policy uncertainties and weaker consumer spending.

• Unemployment Rate: Projected to rise to 4.5% in 2025 from 4.4%, the unemployment rate reflects a slightly softening labor market, though it remains near full employment.

Market Movers

⚙️ Tariff Engineering Gains Traction: Manufacturers are increasingly using tariff engineering to dodge high U.S. tariffs, tweaking product designs to secure lower duty rates such as Converse altering sneaker soles to classify them as slippers.

Though beneficial to small-item retailers, complex sectors like the automotive industry face a higher tariff engineering hurdle, as seen in Ford’s (NYSE: F) failed attempt to misclassify vans, highlighting the risks of customs scrutiny.

💉 HIV Breakthrough Faces Headwinds: The FDA’s approval of Gilead’s (NASDAQ: GILD) twice-yearly Yeztugo injection marks a leap in HIV prevention, with 99.9% efficacy in trials. 

Priced at $28,218 annually, it’s competitive but faces threats from proposed Trump administration cuts to HIV prevention funding, especially Medicaid, which covers 40% of HIV-positive Americans and may provide an early indicator of long-term pharma and biotech headwinds.

💍 Platinum Shines Amid Supply Crunch: Platinum prices surged 44% YTD to $1,313.10 an ounce, outpacing gold’s 29% rise, driven by a third year of supply deficits and “gold fatigue” as traders see the trade as increasingly crowded. 

Chinese jewelers are switching to platinum, boosting demand, with April imports hitting a yearly high of 11.5 metric tons. 

🧙 Triple Witching Looms Post-Holiday: Friday’s triple witching options expiration, with $6 trillion in contracts expiring, follows the Juneteenth holiday tomorrow, June 20th. 

Typically high-volume, this event could see erratic moves amplified by the current 20+ VIX, meaning market index ETFs like SPY and QQQ may face volatility as traders brace for “wackier” market action despite potential low participation post-holiday.

Market Impacts

Platinum’s red-hot rally, up 44% YTD, makes the Aberdeen Physical Platinum Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: PPLT) a compelling pick for investors seeking exposure to this undervalued precious metal. 

Unlike gold, which hit record highs, platinum remains below its 2014 peak of $1,500, offering a value play driven by a structural supply deficit of nearly 1 million ounces in 2025 and surging jewelry demand in China. 

PPLT tracks the spot price of physical platinum bullion stored in secure vaults, providing a straightforward way to capitalize on the metal’s upside without the risks of futures or mining stocks. 

Geopolitical tensions and industrial uses, like catalytic converters and hydrogen fuel cells, further bolster its appeal. 

• Expense Ratio: 0.60%, or $60 per $10,000 invested.

• Total Assets: $1.6 billion.

• YTD Performance: +45%.

Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (May) – June 20th: Analysts expect a modest month-over-month improvement from April’s numbers.  

• 📅 Existing Home Sales (May) – June 23rd: Will May’s numbers kickstart April’s lag? We’ll find out next Monday.

• 📅 Consumer Confidence (June) – June 24th: A softer tariff stance and modest inflation may spark a surge in consumer confidence and send retail stocks soaring.

Everything Else

• The land of opportunity: America added 1,000 freshly-minted millionaires to its census in 2024 according to a UBS report. 

• Amazon’s return-to-office push continues as they send staff to major hubs like Seattle and Washington, DC in a bid to co-locate employees with management. 

• The M&A market is dying and could foretell a major financial crisis on the horizon as deals dry up.

• Here’s how Friday’s triple-witching event could move markets in a bit more detail.

• Downstream tariff impacts are inevitable, says Jerome Powell in yesterday’s presser.