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Commodities Are Crashing — Is the World Economy Next?

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Today we’ll look into: falling commodities, rising recession fears, bank earnings under pressure, and gold hitting new highs.

Uranium Stocks (Sponsored)

On Behalf of Azincourt Energy Corp

The uranium bull market is just getting started.

UEC’s stock skyrocketed 2,500 percent, transforming early investors into millionaires.

Now, the market is hunting for the next UEC.

One tiny uranium junior is sitting on prime assets in the world’s richest uranium region.

  • Drill results confirm uranium mineralization, with more exploration underway.

  • Global nuclear expansion is fueling long-term demand for uranium.

  • The US is desperate for domestic uranium supply—creating a major opportunity.

With billionaire-backed nuclear investments and a global energy crunch, this company could be the next big uranium success story.

*Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular Issuer from one referenced date to another represent an arbitrarily chosen time period and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that Issuer and are of no predictive value. Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for YOUR further investigation; they are NOT stock recommendations or constitute an offer or sale of the referenced securities.

🌍 The Big Picture

Commodities

Global Recession Fears Deepen as US-China Tariffs Crush Oil

Crude oil prices extended losses this week, falling to their lowest levels since early 2021. Mounting recession risks and tariff-driven trade tensions weigh on global demand. The US-China trade standoff escalated sharply, with import duties now impacting Chinese shipments following new reciprocal tariffs.

West Texas Intermediate and Brent benchmark dropped over 19% from recent peaks, reflecting concerns over an economic slowdown in the world’s largest oil-importing nation. Broader commodity markets, including copper and iron ore, also declined on weakening industrial outlooks.

Traders closely monitored China’s response to the latest round of tariffs. Beijing reaffirmed a 5% GDP growth target and increased its budget deficit ceiling to 4%, signaling potential fiscal intervention as it navigates elevated trade pressure.

In parallel, OPEC producers moved to unwind earlier output cuts, increasing global supply as demand projections contract. Analysts expect the supply-demand imbalance to persist if economic uncertainty remains elevated.

Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration delayed its monthly outlook report to recalibrate models for evolving trade and energy market conditions. Industry forecasts, including one from Goldman Sachs, now point to possible further declines in Brent crude toward $40 per barrel.

Current dynamics reflect a complex convergence of trade policy, inflation concerns, and geopolitical recalibration. As investors assess how quickly new policy responses might stabilize global growth and commodity flows, energy markets remain on edge.

Finance

Banks Post Gains, Shift Focus to Policy Risk and Consumer Strain

Central U.S. banks reported better-than-expected profits in Q1, driven by a surge in equity trading. JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo each highlighted strong client activity early in the year. Despite the results, executives emphasized growing unease about the broader economic impact of sweeping trade tariffs.

Market volatility, compounded by shifting policy expectations, has become a central concern. Equity desks delivered record returns, but bank leaders warned of softening loan demand and heightened consumer caution tied to escalating import levies. Analysts noted early signs of behavioral shifts, including pre-emptive purchasing and postponed corporate spending.

Households and businesses alike are navigating higher costs. Executives pointed to increased scrutiny on credit exposure and flagged uncertainty in forward guidance, with several suggesting upcoming earnings calls may include withdrawn forecasts.

Clients across corporate and commercial segments have begun slowing activity. Some banks observed an uptick in short-term financing requests and hesitancy toward longer-term investments. Executives say these signals reflect uncertainty over how sustained trade friction could reshape growth expectations.

Recent market reactions underline investor anxiety. Financial institutions continue watching household resilience and retail balance sheets for signs of stress. Analysts anticipate that more firms will echo the same message as economic data and earnings converge: policy clarity remains elusive, and business planning remains constrained.

Uranium Opportunity (Sponsored)

On Behalf of Azincourt Energy Corp

Billionaires are backing uranium. Governments are pouring in billions.

The uranium bull market is just getting started.

And one tiny uranium junior is sitting on the kind of high-potential assets that turned UEC into a $3.11 billion powerhouse.

  • Prime uranium assets in the Athabasca Basin and the Central Mineral Belt

  • Advancing exploration with new data analysis

  • Institutional investors quietly moving into uranium

With the Trump administration fast-tracking policies to boost domestic uranium production, this company is in a perfect position to capitalize.

The market hasn’t caught on yet, but it won’t stay this way for long.

*Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular Issuer from one referenced date to another represent an arbitrarily chosen time period and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that Issuer and are of no predictive value. Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for YOUR further investigation; they are NOT stock recommendations or constitute an offer or sale of the referenced securities.

Gold Markets

Gold Surges to Record High as Dollar Weakens and Rate Cut Bets Mount

Gold prices surged to an all-time high, driven by dollar weakness, renewed inflation concerns, and investor demand for safe-haven assets.

Weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data helped lower the dollar, making gold more attractive for non-dollar holders. The dollar index slipped over 1%, amplifying gold’s upward momentum. Analysts noted that easing price pressures and global market volatility positioned the metal for renewed gains.

Markets adjusted rate expectations following the latest consumer price report, with traders increasing bets that the Federal Reserve may resume cutting interest rates as early as June. Lower interest rates tend to support gold, which yields no income but retains its value during periods of monetary easing.

Central banks continued to increase their gold reserves, further reinforcing demand at higher price levels. ETF inflows also gained pace, signaling broad-based institutional interest.

While recent geopolitical headlines and trade developments contributed to volatility, most of gold’s strength stemmed from monetary dynamics and broader macro shifts. Analysts noted that the rally reflects a growing investor preference for hard assets amid economic policy uncertainty.

With real rates, currency dynamics, and inflation expectations all shifting, gold remains in focus as markets search for stability amid a turbulent macroeconomic backdrop.

📊 Metrics to Watch

  • Bond Yields: Trump called the bond market “very tricky” soon after announcing a 90-day tariff pause, meaning that spiking bond yields spooked the President and will likely be a leading indicator of policy planning from here on out.

  • Tariffs: The sudden tariff pause doesn’t extend to China, which must contend with a continued 125%  (and climbing!) trade tax in response to their retaliatory 84% counter-tariff. 

  • Sentiment: The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey plummeted 10.8% in March, with respondent expectations of inflation a year from now spiking to 6.7%, up from 5%.

  • Rate Cuts: Futures markets are pricing in three consecutive quarter-point rate cuts before 2026.

🚀 Market Movers

  • 🏡 Home Buying Opportunities: Rates dropped (briefly) to 6.5% before shooting up above 7% this week. However, the rapid influx of new applicants indicates that the high demand continues - buyers are just waiting for a mortgage rate respite.


    Last week’s mortgage application rate increased by 9% from the previous week, and many real estate investors are looking to offload some holdings as general, market-wide risk increases. In other words, a moderately sustained mortgage rate reduction could ignite a waiting powder keg in housing.

  • 📈 Buffer ETFs: Buffer ETFs are a relatively recent financial innovation, yet they’re already proving their worth amid market volatility. Buffer ETFs like the Innovator US Equity Buffer ETF - April (BATS:BAPR) promise to track equity indices like the S&P 500, but only up to a certain point (in other words, upside potential is capped).


    The benefit, however, is that the downside is also capped - so investors can take advantage of the upside while limiting the downside. Buffer ETFs like this operate like traditional structured notes but benefit from greater liquidity as an ETF and retail investor access.


    Buffer ETFs saw $5.6 billion in net inflows over the past quarter, a staggering new record for the category as investors look for even modest risk management options.  


  • 🌐 Global Services: Hard, material goods are assuming much of the spotlight regarding tariffs, but a significant economic segment is being overlooked: American services. Though we operate at a goods deficit, our service trade surplus is a whopping $295 billion, up from just $77 billion in 2000.

    We operate a service-based economy, yet tariffs aren’t easily (or at all) assessed against non-physical offerings. This means that, in place of tariffs on global American service offerings, expect retaliatory tax increases on cross-border payments or, in other cases, outright banning of American service providers in some nations.    


  • 📉 Treasury Sell-Off: Treasuries continue their sell-off trend as 10-year yields climbed above 4.5%, and the 30-year edges are closer to a shockingly high 5%. The sell-off across bond and equity markets meant gold prices spiked and boosted foreign currency markets.

    Retail fixed-income investors have cause to celebrate, though - locking in nearly 5% across 30 years is a saver’s dream!

Uranium Opportunity (Sponsored)

Billionaires are backing uranium. Governments are pouring in billions.

The uranium bull market is just getting started.

And one tiny uranium junior is sitting on the kind of high-potential assets that turned UEC into a $3.11 billion powerhouse.

  • Prime uranium assets in the Athabasca Basin and the Central Mineral Belt

  • Advancing exploration with new data analysis

  • Institutional investors quietly moving into uranium

With the Trump administration fast-tracking policies to boost domestic uranium production, this company is in a perfect position to capitalize.

The market hasn’t caught on yet, but it won’t stay this way for long.

*Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular Issuer from one referenced date to another represent an arbitrarily chosen time period and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that Issuer and are of no predictive value. Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for YOUR further investigation; they are NOT stock recommendations or constitute an offer or sale of the referenced securities.

Market Impacts

  • 📈 Equities:  First-quarter earnings season is kicking off, but don’t expect Q1’s performance to drive markets this time - instead, executive outlook (or lack thereof) will be a major deciding factor in post-earnings price movement. Weaker guidance is all but expected, but there’s a larger risk. Given the whipsaw policy changes, many top corporate players may not offer an outlook for the quarter or year ahead, further compounding the already-swirling uncertainty. 

  • 💵 Bonds:  10-Year Treasury Note yields spiked this week, even after Trump’s temporary tariff pause announcement. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said spiking yields and downward price action for the U.S. Dollar mean foreign investors now see American capital allocations as too risky for their portfolio.     

  • 💱 Currencies: The euro is enjoying its moment in the spotlight as global investors, as mentioned above, pull cash from American investment opportunities and begin plunging them elsewhere. The euro climbed to a 3-year high against the dollar this week, and the currency shows no sign of slowing as markets fall and Treasury yields climb. 

  • 🌽 Commodities: The S&P GSCI index, a global commodity benchmark including energy, metals, and agriculture, points to a nearly 10% pricing drop globally. In other words, according to BCA Research analyst Marko Papic, “The collapse in commodities is a circuit breaker, a sign that a global recession is afoot.”    

🗓️ Key Indicators to Watch

  • 📅 Import Price Index (March) – April 15th: Expect the March report to serve as the last baseline of post-tariff global trade.

  • 📅 U.S. Retail Sales – April 16th: Sales already slowed in Q1’s first two months, so March’s report will be a barometer of true consumer sentiment going into Q2.

  • 📅 Home Builder Confidence Index – April 16th: Oversupply is becoming problematic as higher rates keep buyers from entering markets.

🧩 Everything Else

  • Nuclear energy is becoming more attractive as an alternative to state-level power generation.

  • Apple may find itself the beneficiary of a much-needed tariff exemption, according to analysts.

  • Big bank earnings are coming in strong, but uncertainty clouds the industry’s near-term prospects.

  • Here’s how America’s richest residents are positioning themselves against economic downside. 

  • The much-vaunted economic indicator of the last election cycle, egg prices, are coming down - but that trend may not continue.

That’s it for today’s edition—thanks for reading! Reply to this email with any feedback or let me know which macro trends or markets you’d like me to cover next.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Macro Notes