Hello and welcome to Macro Notes, your go-to source for the latest macroeconomic trends, market-moving news, and key indicators to watch. We cut through the noise to bring you actionable insights in just a few minutes.

Energy Boom (Sponsored)

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A Tiny Uranium Stock That Could Soar Like UEC

In 2018, UEC was a forgotten uranium stock trading for just $0.60.

Five years later? It had exploded into a $3.11 billion juggernaut.

That’s the power of timing the uranium cycle.

Today, another uranium bull market is taking shape. 

But this time, the fuel behind it is different:

• 30+ countries committing to triple nuclear capacity

• AI-driven power demand exploding

• Domestic enrichment startups like General Matter raising tens of millions

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See why some believe this could be UEC all over again.

*Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular Issuer from one referenced date to another represent an arbitrarily chosen time period and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that Issuer and are of no predictive value. Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for YOUR further investigation; they are NOT stock recommendations or constitute an offer or sale of the referenced securities.

🌍 The Big Picture

Private Equity

U.S. Firms Feel the Fallout as Chinese Funds Exit Private Markets 

Chinese state-backed funds are pulling away from U.S. private equity, and the ripple effect is already visible across the American capital landscape. As trade tensions escalate, Beijing is rethinking how and where it allocates capital, with U.S.-based private equity firms now off the list.

This shift matters. For years, major American buyout firms received steady support from sovereign investors in China. That backing helped fuel deals, grow portfolios, and expand global reach. However, the financial relationship is deteriorating, with tariffs rising on both sides.

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Private equity firms across the U.S. are seeing Chinese investors walk back tentative commitments or request exclusion from U.S.-based deals. This isn't just symbolic. Capital flows shape where deals happen, how aggressively firms compete, and what gets funded.

Some Chinese institutions are reportedly withdrawing from global funds entirely if their U.S. exposure is substantial. That behavior suggests more than caution; it reflects a structural pivot driven by political pressure, not portfolio strategy.

The American firms affected include household names in the sector, but the issue isn't about them individually. It's about a broader decoupling in global finance, where regulatory friction and nationalist policy push investors to retreat behind borders.

These financial realignment shrinks funding pools and reshape priorities. Where global capital once moved freely, geopolitical risk is becoming part of the allocation formula.

Capital Flows

Stock Markets Face Historic Early-Year Slide With Trade Volatility

U.S. stock markets are underperforming global peers in the opening stretch of the year, marking one of the steepest early declines in recent history. As investors navigate a shifting policy environment, American equities have faced mounting pressure from trade tensions and economic unpredictability.

The S&P 500 has seen a sharp pullback over the past three months, diverging from the performance of other major markets. While global equities in Europe and Asia gained on defense spending initiatives and fiscal support, U.S. markets have remained constrained by policy-driven volatility.

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Investor confidence, once buoyed by expectations of deregulation and tax reform, has weakened under the weight of fluctuating tariffs and cross-border uncertainty. This shift in sentiment has altered capital flows and created a wide performance gap between U.S. and international stock indices.

Global exchange-traded funds tracking countries across Europe have posted strong returns in recent weeks, reflecting broader support from stimulus programs and infrastructure plans. 

Meanwhile, American benchmarks continue to respond to policy signals with heightened sensitivity.

The divergence highlights a growing challenge for domestic markets. When economic direction is unclear, market participants scale back their exposure and hedge against risk. This behavior is now reflected in relative equity performance across major economies.

For the U.S., the road ahead may depend less on promises and more on predictability. In capital markets, consistency often carries more weight than rhetoric.

Sky's the Limit (Sponsored)

The Best Electric Aviation Stock to Keep an Eye On

Electric aviation is no longer just a vision—it’s rapidly becoming reality.

Major players are jumping in. 

Toyota has invested $500 million to support electric air taxis. 

United Airlines has already ordered hundreds of electric aircraft for future regional air travel. 

And even the US Air Force is testing electric air taxis.

But one company is ahead of the pack.

This NYSE-listed stock just secured a $50 million financing, strengthening its balance sheet and adding fuel to its transformation plan.

With over $119 million in revenue in 2024, they’re not just joining the boom; they’re helping set the pace.

While others are gearing up, this company is already generating real results, flying passengers today on its network of regional flights across the U.S. using aircraft that could one day upgrade to electrified technology.

Trading for under $3, it’s well positioned in a potential growth industry that’s still in its early days.

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*Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular Issuer from one referenced date to another represent an arbitrarily chosen time period and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that Issuer and are of no predictive value. Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for YOUR further investigation; they are NOT stock recommendations or constitute an offer or sale of the referenced securities.

Commodities

Crude Markets React to Geopolitical Signals and Demand Pressures

Oil markets reacted swiftly to two forces shaping the global energy landscape: diplomacy and weakening demand. Traders recalibrate supply expectations as the U.S. and Iran move toward a nuclear framework.

That shift carries tangible consequences. When diplomatic progress signals a pathway for increased exports, the market adjusts. Iranian crude, restricted under sanctions, now appears closer to returning. Even preliminary movement in talks was enough to influence pricing momentum.

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The demand outlook also continues to deteriorate. Tariffs, monetary tightening, and slowing global manufacturing have pressured forecasts. In the United States—the largest oil consumer—economic signals remain mixed, prompting caution in commodity positioning.

At the same time, OPEC+ is preparing to raise output in the weeks ahead. Although certain members may offset their earlier excesses, the group’s general trajectory suggests further supply expansion. The imbalance between higher output and reduced demand is weighing on the market.

Lower trading volume following the holiday weekend may have intensified recent moves, but the broader picture remains unchanged. Oil markets are navigating competing dynamics.

Supply negotiations, production shifts, and economic uncertainty are converging. Each element carries weight, and together, they are shaping short-term volatility across global energy benchmarks.

Oil markets are absorbing signals from multiple directions. Diplomatic developments, production decisions, and macroeconomic conditions are converging. Each factor contributes to a broader recalibration of short-term price dynamics.

📊 Metrics to Watch

• M&A Dealmaking: Mergers and acquisitions declined 12% in Q1 as policy changes prompted investment banks to slow down dealmaking, a leading indicator of wider economic slowdown.

• Oil Pricing: Oil fell 10% over the past month to $64 per barrel, indicating that, for some goods, inflation is still on the decline.

• Dollar’s Decline: 61% of global fund managers surveyed say the dollar’s value will decline over the next year, pointing to an international lack of confidence. 

• Retail Inventory: Retailers like Target (NYSE: TGT) padded their inventory by 7%+ over the past month to get ahead of tariff pricing. Remember, though, that holding costs cut into profit margins (almost) as much as supplier price hikes.

🚀 Market Movers

• ☀️ Solar Tariffs: Sweeping new solar import duties are in effect across Southeast Asian production firms. The duties aren’t part of Trump’s broader trade tax, but a punitive measure for what the U.S. Commerce Department calls an unjust advantage stemming from government subsidies and unfair pricing strategies. Expect U.S.-centric manufacturers, such as First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), to benefit, while those overly reliant on outside sourcing and production facilities, like JinkoSolar (NYSE: JKS) and Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ), will likely suffer.

• ✂️ Rate Cuts: Trump’s feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell aside, institutional analysts are increasingly pricing in sweeping rate cuts in 2025 to combat what they see as an imminent recession. Citi’s modeling puts the odds of a recession at 90%, with June being the point at which economic trouble becomes apparent and triggers the first of five cuts. Investors who share Citi’s pessimistic outlook would do well to stock up on long-dated bonds, which are trading at their lowest levels in years and will rally on news of rate cuts. 

• 🇮🇳 India Alignment: India remained one of the few emerging market economies relatively unshaken by tariff talks, and the country’s trade position with the U.S. got a boost this week on the heels of Vice President JD Vance’s visit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Modi’s office boasted of “significant progress [toward] a mutually beneficial” trade agreement. India has long been positioning itself to become a global economic powerhouse, and the new developments could boost regional ETFs like INDA and SMIN. 

• 💵 Credit Card Concerns: Historically, credit card delinquencies spike following the holiday season before settling in spring, but delinquencies just bucked that trend and hit a 12-year high of 0.90%. Spiking delinquencies indicate consumer stress and could pose problems for companies offering consumer loans, beyond just credit card providers, such as Affirm (NASDAQ: AFRM), a buy-now, pay-later lender that extends small consumer point-of-sale loans. 

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⚡ Market Impacts

• Equities: The previously sleepy Asian consumer stock category is seeing a resurgence, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Consumer Staples Index climbing 5% over the past month as investors seek stability and (relative) safety in a frothy global market. The bump comes after a multi-year decline, as traders prioritized growth, tech, and artificial intelligence stocks across international markets over the “boring” value stock categories. Moreover, governments across the Pacific have signaled their intention to initiate quantitative easing measures to boost domestic spending, indicating a potential increase in strength moving forward.

• Bonds: A combination of relatively low inflation, below 3%, and spiking yields across corporate bond types and maturities is sending retail investors flocking to a range of bond-backed ETFs. Today’s yields are as high or higher than they’ve been in 10+ years, and junk bond ETFs like HYG yield 7% or more while their investment-grade cousins like LQD still generate a respectable 5%+. In other words, even as high-yield savings accounts, money markets, and the like keep dropping rates, there are plenty of options to park excess cash on the sidelines if you’re nervous about staying all-in on stocks. 

• Currencies: The Dollar continued its decline this week as the ICE U.S. Dollar Index hit its lowest point in three years. Uniquely, rather than widespread boosts to other safe-haven currencies or gold, as we’ve seen since Trump’s initial tariff announcements, Bitcoin pricing rose in near-perfect negative correlation with the U.S. Dollar. This suggests that investors are preparing for contingencies in which Bitcoin takes center stage as a global, denominated currency. Unlikely in the near-term, perhaps, but the renewed sentiment could be the boost Bitcoin needs as its price stagnated in 2025’s first quarter.  

• Commodities: Chinese insurance companies, ditching U.S. debt products amid the trade war, are increasingly buying gold with their float (the so-called permanent capital held in reserve for policy payouts). The sector’s gold-based bet is nearly the first of its kind, as most insurers allocate their float to fixed-income products, private credit, and the like, rather than commodities like gold. Expect this to serve as a proving ground for other institutional investors of this magnitude (including pension funds and endowments), which, if successful, could buoy gold’s already stellar year-over-year increase. 

🗓️ Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 New Home Sales (March) – April 23rd: Analysts expect a small rise in sales to kickstart the historically strong spring homebuying season.

• 📅 Fed Beige Book – April 23rd: The first regional corporate survey since Trump’s tariffs, expect this edition to be major commentary on executive policymaking. 

• 📅 Durable Goods Orders (March) – April 24th: A pre-tariff purchasing spike should boost this report beyond its usual trendline.

🧩 Everything Else

• Swiss pharma company Roche plans to invest $50 billion in U.S. manufacturing, leading the pack in pivoting operations aligned with newly protectionist American policies. 

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at trade normalization with China during a leaked closed-door meeting this week, which boosted stock prices.

• The International Monetary Fund is taking a bearish approach to global economic growth, slashing GDP prospects for the U.S. and internationally in 2025.

• Involuntary student loan collections could put pressure on consumers and contribute to increased revolving credit default rates. 

• Even high earners and wealthier Americans are struggling with their debt load, according to data on prime borrower auto loan defaults.