The shutdown is over, but the data hangover is still here.

With the January jobs report pushed to next week, the market’s doing what it always does when the official scoreboard goes missing: it starts treating private dashboards like gospel.

ADP’s weak January read is already setting the tone, while a U.S.–India deal lowers tariffs to 18% and adds a new energy wrinkle.

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The Big Picture

Equities

America's Biggest Private Names Are Heading for the Public Stage

After years of quiet, the U.S. IPO market is gearing up for its biggest year ever.

Forecasts point to proceeds quadrupling to $160 billion in 2026, with the number of listings expected to double.

That is not a gentle recovery. That is a market reopening with force.

Early deals have already raised billions, and the pipeline behind them is stacked with software, healthcare, and late-stage AI companies that have been waiting for the right window.

The window just opened.

Big Names Set the Tone

What makes this cycle different is the weight at the top.

A handful of ultra-valuable private companies are expected to drive the bulk of proceeds, and their timing will shape how the entire year plays out.

When the largest names move, they pull capital, attention, and confidence with them.

Estimates range from $80 billion on the low end to nearly $200 billion if conditions hold. That spread tells you optimism is real but not unconditional.

Valuation Risk Lurks in the Background

Software stocks still make up roughly a quarter of the IPO backlog, and recent volatility in the sector is a reminder that pricing power can shift fast.

Confidence and share prices need to hold for the pipeline to convert into actual listings.

The appetite is back. The question now is whether the market can digest what is coming.

Global Trade

The U.S. Just Turned Crude Oil Into a Diplomatic Lever

India, the world's third-largest oil importer, is walking away from Russian crude not because the discount dried up but because a trade deal with Washington is worth more.

Purchases that topped 2 million barrels a day in mid-2025 are being sharply cut, with volumes expected to fall to a fraction of that level.

When a buyer of that size shifts sourcing, it reprices shipping lanes, reshuffles refinery economics, and sends signals across every trading desk from the Gulf to West Africa.

The scale alone makes it one of the most significant crude reroutes in recent years.

Washington Gets Leverage Without Lifting a Barrel

U.S. trade diplomacy just worked through energy.

Tariff pressure created enough incentive to redirect crude flows, and the reward came fast: lower duties, a framework for deeper cooperation, and a deal timeline set for March.

Oil became the bargaining chip, and Washington closed without adding a single new sanction, strategic influence through policy, not production, a playbook worth watching closely.

Where the Barrels Go Next

Middle Eastern, African, and South American producers are already absorbing the redirected demand.

That reshuffling tightens some markets and loosens others, creating fresh pricing dynamics across global benchmarks.

When diplomacy moves oil, the macro ripple reaches far beyond the barrel. Energy flows are now being shaped as much by deal rooms as by drilling rigs.

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Industrial Policy

A New Playbook for Who Gets American Weapons First

For decades, U.S. arms sales followed a simple queue; orders were filled in the sequence they arrived.

That system is being replaced by one that ranks buyers based on how much they spend on their own defense and how strategically important they are to regional security.

The shift turns the defense export pipeline into something closer to a priority boarding system.

Countries that invest more and matter more geographically move to the front of the line, reshaping how tens of billions of dollars in annual weapons sales are allocated.

Defense Spending Becomes the Entry Ticket

NATO allies recently backed a defense spending target of 5% of GDP, and the new framework rewards exactly that kind of commitment.

Nations meeting higher thresholds gain faster access to American platforms, creating a direct incentive loop between allied budgets and U.S. factory floors.

For the domestic defense industry, the math is compelling.

Foreign capital funds expanded production capacity at home, keeping assembly lines running hotter and supply chains deeper—more demand, more jobs, more industrial resilience.

Backlogs Meet a New Blueprint

Production delays and mismatched orders plagued the old system for years.

Streamlined approvals and a prioritized sales catalog are designed to clear those bottlenecks and match output to the buyers who matter most.

The defense economy does not just sell hardware — it builds leverage.

Aligning exports with strategy instead of sequence turns arms sales into an economic engine with geopolitical purpose baked in.

Metrics to Watch

• Private Jobs Proxies (All Week):
  Watch ADP revisions, Indeed postings, Revelio estimates, Paychex small-business reads, and anything payroll-adjacent.
  
  These aren’t perfect, but they’ll be treated like the main event until the government report hits.
  
  

• ADP Hangover and Revisions:
  The +22k print matters, but the revisions matter more. If ADP keeps marking down prior years, traders will assume the job market has been softer than advertised for a while.
  
  

• Layoff Signals (Daily):
  Challenger-style layoff announcements and corporate headlines are the pulse right now.
  
  If more big names come out with cuts, it’ll reinforce the “cost discipline is back” narrative.
  
  

• Trade Flow Clues from the India Tariff Cut:
  Tariffs dropping to 18% should show up in sourcing talk on earnings calls. Listen for “we’re shifting production,” “we’re diversifying suppliers,” and “we’re pulling demand forward.”
  
  

• Energy Rerouting from India’s Oil Pledge:
  If India truly pivots away from Russian crude, watch how quickly refiners and shippers adapt.
  
  The first tell is usually spreads and shipping chatter, not a clean headline.

Market Movers

🧠 Markets Trading Off Unofficial Data
When official numbers are delayed, smaller data points get promoted to celebrity status. Expect faster narrative swings and bigger reactions to anything that looks like a labor-market tell.

🇮🇳 Tariffs Down, Relationships Up
A U.S.–India deal lowers tariffs and reduces one source of trade tension, which can help the crowd relax.

It also nudges companies to take India more seriously as a manufacturing and sourcing option.

🧑‍💼 Labor Mood: Low Hire, Slightly Higher Fire
Soft hiring plus louder layoff plans pushes investors toward profitable, steady operators and away from stories that need perfect growth to justify the valuation.

⛏️ Critical Minerals: the Slow-Burn Catalyst
The U.S. building a minerals coalition with allies is a long game, but markets love front-running policy.

Anything that hints at preferential trade rules or price floors can move specific materials and industrial names quickly.

Market Impacts

Equities: Well, that was a brutal tech week, and Amazon did not help by pairing a small earnings miss with a very large capex plan.

Software has been the main punching bag, chips have looked shaky, and crypto is doing its best impression of a trapdoor.

How to play it: Keep your core in companies that can finance growth internally and still protect margins.

If a stock needs perfect sentiment to work, it is probably the wrong week to babysit it. Use weakness to add to durable leaders and be picky with anything tied to expensive AI buildouts.

Bonds: Treasury yields fell as weak labor signals stacked up.

Jobless claims jumped, job openings dropped, and layoff announcements are getting louder, which has investors leaning back into the idea that rate cuts could return later this year.

How to play it: The two to five year area still offers a good balance of income and flexibility.

Long bonds can help if growth keeps cooling, but they can still get tossed around if inflation or supply headlines flare up.

Currencies: The dollar is on track for its strongest week since November. A risk-off mood, a tech wobble, and expectations for a less eager cutting cycle under the next Fed chair have all helped.

The yen is firmer ahead of Japan’s election, and the euro and pound have been soft after their central banks held rates.

How to play it: Treat FX like a headline sport right now. A strong dollar usually adds pressure to commodities and emerging market risk.

If next week’s U.S. jobs data comes in weaker than expected, the dollar could cool off quickly.

Commodities: Oil is extending its decline into U.S.-Iran talks as supply disruption fears fade and the market refocuses on softer fundamentals.

Gold and silver are trying to stabilize, but they are still set for weekly losses as the dollar stays firm and risk appetite weakens.

How to play it: Keep energy positions sized for headline whiplash. Gold still works as portfolio insurance, but it is not a straight line trade.

Silver is moving like a leveraged risk asset, so treat it with extra respect.

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Key Indicators to Watch

• NFIB Optimism Index (Tue, Feb. 10, 6:00 a.m. ET) - A quick read on small business mood. If optimism holds up, it supports the idea that growth is slowing but not stalling.
  
  If it drops, it lines up with the cautious hiring tone we are seeing elsewhere.
  
  

• Employment Cost Index, Q4 (Tue, Feb. 10, 8:30 a.m. ET)
  This is the wage pressure check. Cooler wage growth is friendly for bonds and corporate margins.
  
  A hotter print can revive worries about sticky inflation and keep rate-cut hopes in check.
  
  

• U.S. Retail Sales, Dec. delayed (Tue, Feb. 10, 8:30 a.m. ET) - A straight consumer demand test. Strong sales help discretionary names and the broader growth narrative.
  
  A miss nudges investors toward staples, utilities, and defensive plays.
  
  

• U.S. Employment Report, Jan. (Wed, Feb. 11, 8:30 a.m. ET) - The official scoreboard returns. After weeks of leaning on private data, this report can reset expectations fast.
  
  A soft result boosts rate-cut odds and defensives. A strong result can push yields higher and put pressure back on high-multiple tech.
  
  

• Initial Jobless Claims (Thu, Feb. 12, 8:30 a.m. ET) - Simple and timely. If claims settle back down, the labor market is cooling in an orderly way.
  
  If they keep climbing, the slowdown story starts looking less gentle.

Everything Else

• 📉 Layoffs jumped and hiring plans shrank, making this January the worst since 2009 for job-cut announcements.

• 🌏 China’s week is packed with Taiwan pressure, U.S. trade chatter, and Iran and Russia drama all in one whirlwind.

• 🗓️ The January jobs report got pushed back again after the shutdown, so markets are now watching the new release.

• 🧑‍💼 U.S. job openings sank to a more-than five-year low, and that is not exactly hiring hype.

• 🏦 Choppy markets are testing the ECB’s calm stance, but policymakers are still keeping rates parked.