Under the hood, this economy looks like a Thanksgiving table where one dish is doing all the work.

AI and data-center spending are carrying a big chunk of U.S. growth, while most other business investment is basically picking at the sides.

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The Big Picture

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Metrics to Watch

• AI share of growth:
  Barclays figures AI-related software, hardware, and data centers are adding close to 1 percentage point to GDP growth out of roughly 1.6%. If that contribution slows, it’s a sign the AI does half the work era is fading.
  

• Non-AI capex and construction:
  Outside servers and data halls, business investment is mostly flat versus 2019, and traditional commercial construction is weak. Any pickup here would mean the expansion is broadening beyond one hot theme.
  

• Tariff-linked growth hits overseas:
  Japan, Switzerland, Mexico, and Ireland all saw Q3 contractions tied partly to higher U.S. import taxes. How many more quarters those economies spend in the red (or near it) will tell you how long the tariff drag sticks.
  

• Data gaps from the shutdown:
  With no October unemployment rate and key reports pushed into December, investors are leaning harder on weekly claims, private payrolls, and anecdotes. The longer the official data stay spotty, the more every small release can swing expectations.
  

• Consumer sentiment vs. actual spending:
  Michigan’s sentiment index is sitting near historic lows even as overall consumer spending is still growing. Watch whether sour mood finally shows up as weaker retail and services demand, or whether people keep spending while complaining.

Market Movers

🧠 AI as the Main Engine, Not the Garnish
AI-related capex and stock gains may have kept the U.S. out of a mild recession this year.

Great for mega-cap tech and data-center builders—but it also means any AI wobble risks hitting growth, capex, and the “I feel richer, so I spend more” wealth effect all at once.

🇩🇪 Germany’s Big Fiscal Swing
After years of stagnation, Germany is lining up up to €1 trillion in civil and defense spending to pivot away from pure export-dependence.

If the money actually flows into projects and factories, it supports euro-area demand and industrials; if bureaucracy wins, it’s just another nice PowerPoint.

🌍 Tariffs Quietly Slow the Global Buffet
Higher U.S. import taxes haven’t caused a crash, but they have shaved growth in multiple export-heavy economies and are expected to keep global GDP below its old trend.

AI-related trade is the offset for now; any slowdown there leaves the tariff hit more exposed.

📉 Data Blackout, Louder Vibes
Skipping the October unemployment rate and delaying other stats means the Fed walks into December with an incomplete read on the labor market.

That pushes more weight onto surveys and markets, where people are loudly unhappy about prices even if they’re still mostly employed.

🍁 Canada’s Soft Retail Tape
Canadian retail sales fell in September and were flat in October, with households pulling back on cars and some discretionary buys while still paying more at the till.

It’s a preview of what a slow, choppy, tariff-hit consumer looks like when rate cuts have already happened but don’t magically fix affordability.

Market Impacts

Equities: Futures are basically in a food coma after a huge Thanksgiving week, with big up days, but still a red November thanks to the tech/AI wobble.

The Nasdaq is on track to break its seven-month win streak, even though dip buyers have finally shown up in the last few sessions.

The simple play: keep your core in durable growers (profitable tech, quality blue chips) and use any leftover gravy to nibble on beaten-up AI names you actually believe in, not the story stocks your cousin pitched over dinner.

Bonds: The 10-year is hovering right around 4%, with the curve barely twitching as everyone waits on the Fed and the “who replaces Powell” drama.

Jobless claims at 216k say layoffs are still tame, so there’s no obvious “emergency cut” pressure yet.

For portfolio construction, the 2–5 year pocket still works as your main income lane, with a smaller slice of longer bonds as insurance if growth or AI sentiment really roll over.

Currencies: The dollar is on track for its worst week since July as markets lean hard into a December cut and start gaming what a more dovish Fed chair might look like.

The yen is bouncing around every BOJ headline, the pound is riding Reeves’ budget, and commodity currencies are catching a small bid as rate-cut hopes perk up risk appetite.

Net-net: this is a gently weaker-dollar, choppy-FX backdrop where you keep position sizes modest and don’t marry any one macro story.

Commodities: Gold is having itself a month with four straight monthly gains and back near record territory as traders pre-position for easier policy and a softer dollar.

It still works as a small hedge, just don’t size it like you’re trying to retire on bullion alone.

Oil, meanwhile, is stuck in a tug-of-war: extra supply and Russia-Ukraine peace talk weigh on prices, while OPEC+ and U.S. rig cuts try to put in a floor.

For equities, that favors refiners, pipelines, and solid integrated names over the highest-beta shale heroes.

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Key Indicators to Watch

• Chicago Business Barometer (Fri, 9:45 a.m. ET)
  Quick vibe check on Midwest factories. Another sub-50 print says manufacturing is still in sleepy mode and supports the case for a gentler Fed tone.
  
  A surprise pop would argue the real economy is handling higher rates better than the headlines suggest.
  
  

• S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Mon, 9:45 a.m. ET)
  This is the cleaner, survey-based read on factory momentum. If it holds above 50, it backs the slow but not broken growth story.
  
  A drop closer to contraction keeps the door wide open for a December cut and usually helps defensives and quality growth.
  
  

• ISM Manufacturing (Mon, 10:00 a.m. ET)
  The one CEOs quote on earnings calls. Strength here supports the soft-landing camp and can keep yields sticky; a weak print reinforces the idea that the Fed can ease without overheating things.
  
  Watch the new orders and employment components for how corporate appetites are shifting.
  
  

• Auto Sales (Tue, time TBA)
  Real-world check on big-ticket confidence. Solid unit sales say households are still willing to sign up for multi-year payments despite higher rates.
  
  A soft read fits the stretched middle class story and tilts flows toward staples, value retailers, and used-auto plays.
  
  

• ADP Employment (Wed, 8:15 a.m. ET)
  Not perfect, but with official data delayed, this is an important early look at hiring. A steady jobs gain keeps the low-hire, low-fire narrative but any clear slowdown will crank up bets on a December cut.

Everything Else

• A new Reuters poll has economists nudging up their U.S. growth forecasts while accepting that “sticky” inflation might be hanging around the dinner table through 2026.

• Fresh factory data show manufacturing slowing and inventories piling up, a classic sign that demand is cooling faster than producers would like.

• The latest confidence reading has sentiment back at its lowest since April, with shoppers still grumbling about prices even as headline inflation eases.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is out saying the U.S. can sidestep a recession in 2026, betting that rate cuts and a decent labor market keep the wheels on.

• Those splashy U.S.–Saudi pledges from $1 trillion of spending to F-35 jets are still more talking points than contracts, so geopolitics is moving faster than the actual money.