This Thanksgiving, the turkey finally got a discount but everything around it still feels expensive.

The data backlog is slowly clearing, and what we’re seeing is a low-hire, low-fire job market, a middle class that’s tired of playing defense, and a Fed that’s still arguing over what to serve at the December meeting.

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The Big Picture

Supply Chain

The Great American Stock Out Season

Small American retailers that rely on Chinese suppliers are heading into the holidays with shelves that are thinner than planned.

Higher import costs and slower shipments have turned simple restocking into a balancing act.

Many stores are carrying only a fraction of their usual inventory, which creates ripple effects across local economies.

The tight supply environment also forces cautious pricing, which shapes consumer demand through December.

The Risky Art of Ordering Ahead

Some businesses tried to outsmart the tariff wave by placing oversized orders earlier in the year.

The strategy comes with real macro risk, because today’s shopper is more selective and far less predictable.

Overstocking can crush cash flow, while understocking can kill momentum at the most important time of the year.

This tug of war shows how U.S. retail increasingly lives inside global policy decisions.

When Global Trends Crash Into Main Street

Broader retail trends add texture to the story.

European legal dramas, Latin American brand expansions, and social media-driven marketing stunts all feed into how U.S. consumers discover and evaluate products.

Even playful campaigns like fake apologies for great products reflect a market that is trying to spark demand without stretching budgets.

Together, these signals point to a U.S. retail landscape that is resilient but tense, creative but cost-sensitive, and shaped heavily by trade headwinds.

Energy

Fewer Rigs, Bigger Stakes for U.S. Energy

U.S. energy firms paused their recent momentum and trimmed active oil and gas rigs for the first time in a month.

The national rig count dropped to its lowest level since early fall, a sign that producers are tapping the brakes as price signals shift.

Fewer rigs generally mean slower near-term supply growth, which feeds directly into the broader energy equation for households and industry.

Oil Slows, Gas Repositions

Oil rigs saw the sharpest pullback, falling to levels not seen in several years.

Gas rigs, however, moved in the opposite direction, reflecting expectations of stronger demand and firmer pricing in the year ahead.

The mixed rig movements show how energy companies are navigating an unusual cross current, where oil prices trend lower while gas markets brace for a potential tightening cycle.

Production Still Marches Forward

Even with fewer rigs in the field, U.S. output is still on track to push deeper into record territory.

Productivity gains, better well technology, and more selective drilling allow companies to produce more with less.

Gas production is also projected to expand, driven by rising power generation needs, heavy winter consumption, and expanding export capacity.

This keeps the U.S. positioned as a global energy anchor even during periods of domestic pullback.

Rig declines hint at caution, but rising production underscores resilience. The combination shapes inflation, trade balances, and industrial costs in the months ahead.

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Healthcare

The Medicare Shakeup That Redraws the Pharma Map

The U.S. has kicked off one of its biggest prescription-drug overhauls in decades, rolling out Medicare price cuts that will reshape how treatments are paid for, accessed, and supplied.

The reductions reach as high as 85 percent for certain therapies and mark the first wave of long-term structural changes that will ripple through patient budgets, federal spending, and the broader healthcare system.

Big Drugs, Big Decisions

Fifteen widely used medicines are now locked into negotiated pricing that begins in 2027.

Several blockbuster treatments for chronic diseases, neurological conditions, and metabolic disorders will shift to new cost levels that influence everything from insurance design and formulary access to how states forecast their healthcare budgets.

With more drug groups entering the process in 2026 and 2028, the U.S. drug-pricing architecture is moving toward a more intervention-heavy model.

Pressure on Innovation and Supply

With lower Medicare reimbursement locked in, manufacturers will face tighter margins in their U.S. portfolios.

That pushes research priorities toward therapies with clear clinical value and away from marginal upgrades.

At the same time, some medicines losing exclusivity will see a smoother transition into generics, reducing strain on household drug costs nationwide.

For the U.S., this shift signals a decisive turn toward affordability policies that influence federal budgets, healthcare inflation, and long-run consumer spending power.

Metrics to Watch

• Delayed jobs report & weekly claims (Thu, 8:30 a.m. ET)
  September payrolls came in hotter than expected, but with unemployment edging up and weekly claims stuck in that 210k–250k range, the picture is fine, not fantastic.
  
  Any surprise bump in claims now would push the labor story from slow simmer to uh oh pretty fast.
  
  

• Wage growth (Thu, 8:30 a.m. ET)
  Hourly earnings around the 0.3% month-over-month mark sound OK on paper, but for households that have seen prices jump 25% since 2020, the math still feels off.
  
  If wage gains cool while grocery and rent pressure stick, expect more affordability crisis headlines and a less generous holiday shopper.
  
  

• Retail sales & holiday run-up (delayed September report)
  A 0.2% September gain vs 0.3% expected already told you consumers were trimming big-ticket spend and hunting for deals.
  
  The delayed retail-sales print, plus early holiday read-throughs, will show whether people are just trading down to Walmart/TJX and frozen pies, or actually pulling back.
  
  

• Consumer confidence & sentiment (late Nov data)
  Confidence has already rolled over, and the affordability story is doing more damage to vibes than the hard data would suggest.
  
  If sentiment takes another leg lower even as jobs and incomes muddle along, the Fed will have to decide how much to respect vibes versus spreadsheets.
  
  

• Trade flows & tariff fallout (August trade deficit)
  The August deficit shrank 24% as imports dropped and exports inched higher, a sign that the tariff shock is still scrambling who buys what, from where, and at what price.
  
  Watch follow-up trade and shipping data for clues on which categories (autos, electronics, furniture) are getting carved up by new sourcing patterns.

Market Movers

🦃 Cheaper Turkey, Pricier Everything Else
Thanksgiving dinner is finally down about 5% from last year, with turkey, stuffing, and cranberries on promo, but sweet potatoes and other sides are still marching higher.

That’s the macro story in miniature: one-off relief on a few items, while the overall grocery bill is still up a quarter vs 2020.

It explains why people are willing to show up for a $4-a-head holiday basket, but still feel grumpy at the checkout line.

💸 Affordability Crisis: Vibes > Data
On paper, real incomes are grinding higher, jobs are still being added, and layoffs are not exploding.

On the ground, the middle class is cutting vacations, turning off lights, taking second gigs, and arguing with the dentist bill.

That gap between macro looks okay and my life feels worse is now a core market theme.

🧑‍🍳 Fed’s December Main Course Still Undercooked
You’ve got Powell’s allies like Williams and Daly openly saying there’s room to cut again, while a growing hawkish camp wants to leave rates where they are and see if inflation behaves.

Markets have shifted back toward expecting a December cut, but this is still very much a coin flip. For portfolios, that argues for not over-seasoning one way or the other.

👟 Low-Hire, Low-Fire Job Market
Weekly claims are calm, but continuing claims keep inching higher, which is what you see when layoffs are manageable but new gigs are harder to land.

September’s delayed jobs report gave you a not dead yet labor market, with 119k jobs added, unemployment at a four-year high of 4.4%.

If this slow grind continues, it supports the case for a cautious Fed cut and favors companies that can grow without hiring armies of new workers.

🛒 Consumers Trading Down, Not Tapping Out
Shutdown-delayed retail sales and recent earnings say the same thing: people are still spending, but they’re cherry-picking value.

Off-price chains, warehouse clubs, and discounters are getting the traffic; mid-tier brands and big home projects are getting put back on the shelf.

Into the holidays, that tilt usually helps everyday essentials, cheap treats, and good enough gifts more than luxury splurges.

🚢 Tariffs Are Rearranging the Global Dinner Table
The smaller August trade deficit wasn’t a sign that the U.S. suddenly became an export powerhouse, it was tariffs forcing importers to change behavior.

Earlier in the year, firms rushed to beat tariff deadlines; now they’re pulling back, rerouting, or passing costs along.

For investors, it means more volatility in shipping, ports, and tariff-heavy sectors, plus ongoing margin pressure for companies that can’t easily swap suppliers.

🎯 Holiday Season: Discounts Are the New Growth Strategy
From Walmart’s stripped-down baskets to big-box promos and frozen-pie compromises, retailers are learning that volume now comes with a side of markdowns.

That’s good news for traffic and inventory clearance, but not always for margins.

As you scan earnings and guidance into year-end, focus on who can grow through mix, membership, and efficiency—not just who can mark down the fastest.

Market Impacts

Equities: Stocks are going into Thanksgiving on a four-day win streak, with tech doing most of the carving.

Oracle got a nice upgrade pop, Nvidia bounced after its wobble, and the usual megacap crew helped pull the indexes higher again.

November still hasn’t been an easy month, but this week looks like the classic holiday feel good rally.

Bonds: The 10-year is basically camped around 4%, with only tiny wiggles as traders daydream about a December cut and gossip about Powell’s potential replacement.

Short and intermediate Treasurys still give you income without a lot of drama, while long bonds are more of a break-glass-when-things-break side dish.

With jobless claims still low, you don’t have to panic-buy duration, but having some rate-cut exposure into 2025 still makes sense.

Currencies: The dollar is kind of flat, stuck between cut coming soon and the U.S. still looks better than most neighbors.

The yen keeps flirting with a bounce as the BOJ hints at an honest-to-goodness rate hike, while traders keep one eye on possible intervention.

Sterling got a little stuffing from a market-friendly U.K. budget.

Net-net, FX is in wait-and-see mode: any surprise from the Fed or BOJ after the holiday could move this quickly, so keep bets sized like side dishes, not the main course.

Commodities: Oil is drifting lower on hopes for a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire and the idea that Russian barrels might trickle back more freely.

Add in higher U.S. inventories and steady OPEC+ output, and crude looks more plenty in the pantry than “shortage panic” for now.

That’s a mild plus for airlines, shippers, and consumers, but a tougher backdrop for high-cost producers.

Gold, on the other hand, is lounging near recent highs as December cut odds climb and everyone debates who will run the Fed kitchen next.

It still works as a small hedge against policy missteps and political noise.

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Key Indicators to Watch

• Chicago Business Barometer (Fri, 9:45 a.m. ET)
  A quick read on how Midwest factories and firms are feeling. A bounce toward 50 says activity is thawing; a deeper dip keeps the soft-patch narrative alive and usually favors defensives over deep cyclicals.
  

• S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Mon, 9:45 a.m. ET)
  Assembly-line vibe check. If it stays above 50, it supports the “slow growth, not recession” story. A surprise slide would argue for more rate-cut urgency and typically helps bonds and quality growth names.
  

• ISM Manufacturing (Mon, 10:00 a.m. ET)
  The marquee factory survey. Stronger readings point to healthier orders and production but can also make the Fed less eager to cut. Softer numbers reinforce the idea that goods demand is the weak link and tend to boost rate-cut odds.
  

• ADP Employment (Wed, 8:15 a.m. ET)
  An early look at private-sector hiring before the official payrolls show up. Solid but not sizzling gains keep the low-hire, low-fire story intact; a sharp drop would spook risk assets and push more money into Treasurys.
  

• ISM Services (Wed, 10:00 a.m. ET)
  The big one for the real economy, with restaurants, travel, healthcare, and everything in between. A firm services print says the main engine is still running, which supports earnings but can delay deeper cuts. A weaker read would underline consumer fatigue and favor more defensive, quality-income names.

Everything Else

• Apple is poised to finally dethrone Samsung in smartphones, with one shipment forecast calling for its first global crown in 14 years.

• Workday spooked investors after solid results but softer subscription guidance, sending the stock lower on its latest cloud update.

• A fresh MIT study says today’s AI could theoretically replace about 12% of U.S. workers, if companies decide the math beats hiring humans.

• Nvidia is pushing back on “AI bubble” critics with a detailed memo to analysts, arguing demand, moats, and margins still justify the hype.

• Netflix ran into some untimely tech issues as thousands of U.S. users reported service outages, just in time for holiday binge season.