So, you’ve got your rate cut. The Fed sliced 25 bps, hinted at more to come, and all but admitted the job market isn’t bulletproof anymore.

Housing starts are rolling over, import prices popped, and Europe’s trade picture is still a headache.

In the middle of all this noise, we’re here to cut through it, giving you the signals that actually matter so you can get ahead of what’s next.

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The Big Picture

Food Supply

When China Shops in South America, U.S. Farmers and Consumers Pay the Tab

The U.S. soybean industry is caught in a bind. Global demand for raw beans is exploding, especially from China, but that surge is reshaping trade flows and leaving U.S. farmers and food processors in a tighter spot.

A surplus at home is colliding with fierce competition abroad, and the fallout stretches far beyond farm country.

The Food Chain Domino Effect

Here’s where it hits you: soybeans aren’t just livestock feed. They’re in cooking oils, packaged foods, and even household goods.

When global buyers tilt the market, U.S. processors face squeezed margins, higher input costs, and disrupted supply.

That ripple shows up in grocery aisles — from pricier protein to climbing costs on everyday staples.

Why It Matters

The soybean saga isn’t just a farm story, but it’s a macro story. Agriculture is one of the few U.S. sectors that consistently delivers a trade surplus, and soy is its star player.

If global flows continue to shift south, U.S. farmers risk losing market share just as domestic consumers are squeezed by price volatility.

That’s the paradox: America grows plenty, but households could still feel the pinch.

Trade

Switzerland Blinks as Tariffs Knock U.S. Trade Down 22%

Swiss goods bound for the U.S. took a nosedive in August, falling 22% after fresh tariffs landed.

That’s the steepest drop since 2020, and it’s already reshaping trade flows that usually lean heavily on America’s appetite for Swiss-made goods.

With the United States being Switzerland’s biggest export market, the ripple is big.

Exports sank to just 3.1 billion Swiss francs, down from almost 4 billion the month before, a painful reset for industries that bank on steady American demand.

Your Rolex Just Got a Tariff Hangover

Luxury watches, precision machinery, and high-end appliances are suddenly more expensive to move across the Atlantic.

While pharma and gold dodged the tariff bullet, the hit landed squarely on other Swiss specialties that U.S. consumers prize.

For American buyers, luxury isn’t just about exclusivity anymore; it’s also about navigating higher price tags.

That tariff hangover is likely to stick around until trade tensions cool.

From Chocolate to Coffee Machines, Nothing’s Safe

Swiss companies are already feeling the squeeze.

Thermoplan, the maker of high-end coffee machines, says margins are under pressure, and relocation could be on the table to keep costs competitive.

If that happens, it’s a sign that tariffs are forcing supply chains to rethink their U.S. strategies. For consumers, the latte froth might soon cost a little extra.

For the U.S., it’s a reminder that trade friends don’t wait around forever. When tariffs bite, others are ready to take your seat at the table.

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Consumer

Holiday Cheer on a Budget: U.S. Shoppers Pull Back in 2025

Holiday shopping, the Super Bowl of American consumer spending, looks set to be more modest this year.

New forecasts show retail sales between November and Christmas Eve growing just 3.6% which is slower than last year’s 4.1%.

It’s not exactly a collapse, but for an economy that leans so heavily on consumers, it signals households are tightening belts at the very moment retailers count on them most.

The Season of Discounts, Not Splurges

Instead of loading carts, shoppers are expected to hunt harder for deals. Inflation, higher living costs, and uncertainty over trade are forcing families to focus on price tags more than gift tags.

That means promotions and early sales will matter more than ever.

Retailers who used to bank on last-minute splurges may see buyers spread spending out or simply spend less.

Online Still Wins, But Growth Slows

E-commerce is expected to climb nearly 8% this season, but that’s a notch slower than last year.

In-store sales will inch higher too, but at their weakest pace in years. Taken together, the numbers point to a consumer who’s still spending, but more carefully.

For the broader economy, it’s another reminder: when American households get cautious, the slowdown shows up everywhere from malls to GDP.

Metrics to Watch

• Fed Cuts (Wed – just in): The Fed lowered its benchmark rate to 4.00–4.25%, the first move in nine months.
  
  Powell signaled at least two more cuts this year, but the committee is split, seven members penciled in no further easing. Cuts are on the table, but consensus isn’t.
  
  

• Housing Starts (Wed): August starts sank to 1.307M, well below expectations and down 6% y/y. Permits also slumped.
  
  Builders are stuck, too much exposure to weak regions (South/West), too little ability to pivot quickly to where demand actually is.
  
  

• Import Prices (Tue): Import costs rose 0.3% in August, defying forecasts for a drop. Nonfuel imports (think consumer goods, capital equipment) jumped 0.4%, their biggest rise since April.
  
  Fuel imports eased, but higher goods prices hint at a tariff undercurrent still bleeding into supply chains.
  
  

• EU Trade (July): Exports dipped 0.4% m/m even as shipments to the U.S. bounced. Imports fell harder, so the EU’s trade surplus widened, but the underlying story is soft demand in China and tariff uncertainty keeping exporters on edge.
  
  

• Inflation Pulse: CPI held at 2.9% y/y in August, with core at 3.1%. Not scary enough to block cuts, but hot enough that the Fed can’t sprint toward easing.
  
  Watch how the September CPI (due next month) lines up with import-cost stickiness.

Market Movers

• 📉Fed Cuts, Split Views
  The 25 bp trim is the easy headline, but the messy part is Powell managing a split FOMC. One governor even wanted 50 bps right away.
  
  For you, that means the pace of cuts is still a coin toss. Lean into quality growth and investment-grade credit, keep powder dry in case markets overdo the all-clear.
  
  

• 🏠Housing Weakness Bites
  Starts and permits tanked, confirming that high mortgage rates and misallocated inventory are crushing builders.
  
  Don’t chase homebuilder rallies, look instead at suppliers leveraged to Midwest/Northeast demand or value retailers who catch the trade-down from stalled buyers.
  
  

• 🌍EU Trade Jitters
  Exports slipped, imports collapsed, and the tariff game with the U.S. is still unresolved. For portfolios, this keeps pressure on eurozone cyclicals.
  
  The safer play would be to hedge with exporters tied to domestic European demand or add EM exposure that benefits from U.S./China tariff spillovers.
  
  

• 🛬Import Prices Surprise
  A 0.3% gain in August says tariffs are still trickling into costs. It’s not inflationary enough to spook the Fed yet, but it does mean companies will keep playing the margin game.
  
  Watch Q3 earnings calls, firms that can hold pricing power (software, branded goods) should outperform.
  
  

• ⚖️Policy Path: Cuts vs. Tariffs
  The Fed just showed it’ll prioritize jobs over inflation noise, but tariffs are the wild card. Relief trades (mortgage rates, credit spreads) may be short-lived if tariff pass-through accelerates in Q4.
  
  Balance is key. Keep some defensive ballast in staples and metals, while riding the risk-on wave with AI and megacap tech.

Market Impacts

• Equities: Futures are nudging higher (S&P/Nasdaq +0.2%, Dow +0.1%) as you digest the Fed’s quarter-point risk-management cut and Powell’s not-so-subtle message of easing, yes, joyride, no.
  
  Yesterday’s tape was choppy, Dow green, S&P/Nasdaq a touch red, as traders recalibrated from “three+ cuts” to “measured sequence.” 

  
  After-hours, Cracker Barrel face-planted on soft EPS and traffic guidance, a reminder that consumers are picky and promo-sensitive right now.
  
  Play it like a pro and keep riding quality growth and AI adjacencies, but don’t over-position for a torrid easing cycle. Earnings resilience > rate-cut hopium.
  
  

• Bonds: Treasuries whipsawed on the decision, the 10-yr dipped below 4% then finished around ~4.08%; 2-yr ~3.55%; 30-yr ~4.68%. The cut was priced, the dots and Powell’s tone were the swing. 
  
  Near term, a gentle bull-steepener is still in play if claims cool and growth drifts, but long end can stay sticky if deficits or supply chatter flare.
  
  Tactics for you are to add on 2–5y backups, keep some 30-yr hedges in case the one-and-done (for now) vibe turns into a hotter-inflation repricing.
  
  

• Currencies: The dollar took a step back on the cut (DXY ~96.3), with EUR/USD around 1.189 and USD/JPY near 145.8.
  
  If the Fed sounds open to another move in October, USD downslope can continue, until data says otherwise.
  
  Into claims/Philly Fed, you can lean slightly short USD tactically, just keep a stop tight, because one upside surprise and the snapback is fast.
  
  

• Commodities: Crude eased (Brent ~$68.2, WTI ~$64.1) as a diesel build trumped Russia-risk headlines.
  
  The demand side is the soft underbelly, rate cuts help sentiment, but not enough to outrun inventories and OPEC+ supply creep. 
  
  Think sell the rips unless we get a real supply shock. Gold? Still king.
  
  A fresh record print (~$3,707 intraday) on “cuts are back” keeps the ballast case intact, with a $3,600–$3,900 range making sense as long as labor cools and policy noise stays loud.
  
  Keep a measured allocation, hedge and duration friend in one.

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Key Indicators to Watch

• Initial Jobless Claims (Thu, 8:30 a.m. ET)
  Consensus: 240k (prior 263k). If we slip back toward 240k, the soft, not breaking labor narrative survives. Another print in the 260s amplifies the case for back-to-back cuts and supports duration.

• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Thu, 8:30 a.m. ET)
  Consensus: 2.0 (prior -0.3). A bounce helps the soft-landing story and cyclicals at the margin; a miss says demand is still uneven and inventories could weigh on Q4 guides.

• Leading Economic Indicators (Thu, 10:00 a.m. ET)
  Consensus: -0.2% (prior -0.1%). Another negative keeps recession chatter simmering and favors quality/defensive tilts and IG over HY beta.

• Fed Speak: Mary Daly (Fri, 2:30 p.m. ET)
  Watch for clues on October, does she lean sequential cuts or skip and see? Hints here will steer front-end rates and USD tone into next week.

• Next Week – Flash PMIs (Tue, 9:45 a.m. ET)
  Services: 54.5; Manufacturing: 53.0 (consensus). Above-50 keeps okay growth alive; any slip toward 50 helps bonds, hurts cyclicals. Pair with Existing Home Sales (Tue, 10:00 a.m.), a weak print reinforces the housing-drag theme and favors staples/value retail over builders.

Everything Else

• The Fed’s quarter-point cut came with a message: more rate reductions are likely this year, but don’t expect an all-out pivot.

• Sales of heavy trucks are tumbling, often a red flag that the broader economy could be slowing.

• The Bank of Canada followed the Fed with its own 25 bp cut and signaled it’s ready to ease again if risks mount.

• U.S. housing starts slumped in August, dropping near two-and-a-half-year lows as bloated inventories kept builders cautious.

• Meanwhile, retail sales surprised to the upside in August, showing consumers are still spending even as job growth cools.