January delivered a nicer inflation headline, but the fine print is still spicy.

CPI cooled to 2.4% thanks to cheaper gas and used cars, while some goods and services kept creeping higher.

Jobs look steady on the surface, but revisions and a healthcare-heavy hiring mix make the picture less clean.

Add an ugly January home-sales drop and a possible tariff redesign, and this is a week where markets will trade the story, not just the spreadsheet.

Act Fast (Sponsored)

Gold Surge Ahead

For decades, gold prices were suppressed to support the U.S. dollar—until a record fine exposed years of manipulation.

Now, real price discovery is returning for the first time in 54 years.

At the same time, a powerful new “whale” is driving massive gold demand, setting up four tiny miners for potential 100X gains.

Click here to see how early investors are positioning.

Stay Up to Speed on Macro News!

We now send our macro-focused news via text, so you’re never far from the latest market-moving action.

👉 Click here to get our macro notes by text and always stay in the loop.

The Big Picture

Credit Markets

Washington Is Quietly Reshaping How America's Largest Banks Operate

Bank capital requirements sound like a regulatory detail, but they directly shape how much lending flows into the real economy.

When regulators raise the bar on how much capital large banks must hold against risk, it tightens the credit pipeline for businesses, consumers, and housing markets alike.

A new version of the long-debated Basel framework is now moving through the review process, signaling that updated rules could land sooner than many expected.

The previous attempt drew fierce industry pushback over concerns it would squeeze lending capacity at the worst possible time.

The Balancing Act Gets Harder

Stronger capital buffers make the banking system more resilient, but they also raise the cost of doing business for lenders.

That cost gets passed along through tighter loan terms, higher rates, and more selective credit access — hitting small businesses and consumers the hardest.

With the U.S. economy still navigating sticky inflation and elevated borrowing costs, the timing of any new requirements matters as much as the substance.

Getting it wrong in either direction carries real macro consequences.

Credit Is the Economy's Oxygen

Large banks sit at the center of the U.S. credit system, funding everything from commercial real estate to auto loans.

How regulators calibrate risk measurement directly influences how freely that capital moves.

The economy runs on lending confidence.

When the rulebook shifts, the ripple reaches far beyond bank balance sheets and into Main Street spending, hiring, and investment decisions.

Supply Chains

A 30-Page Plan to Rewire America's Maritime Future Just Dropped

U.S. shipbuilding has been in steady decline since World War II, and the gap with global competitors is now enormous.

A new federal action plan aims to reverse that slide through maritime prosperity zones, workforce training reforms, fleet expansion, and a dedicated funding stream called the Maritime Security Trust Fund.

The ambition is not small.

Rebuilding domestic shipbuilding capacity affects steel production, port infrastructure, skilled labor markets, and defense readiness simultaneously. For the U.S. economy, this is industrial policy with a very long tail.

Port Fees Fund the Revival

The plan relies on port fees targeting foreign-built vessels to finance the overhaul, with estimates placing annual revenue at around $3.2 billion.

Those levies triggered swift retaliation and disrupted global shipping routes before both sides agreed to a 12-month pause.

That pause buys time but does not erase the underlying tension.

Shipping costs, supply chain routing, and import pricing all shift when port access becomes a policy tool. Importers and exporters are watching closely.

Why Maritime Capacity Is a Macro Issue

The U.S. moves roughly $5.4 trillion in goods through its ports every year, yet builds almost none of the ships that carry them.

Closing that gap would create jobs, strengthen supply chain resilience, and reduce dependence on foreign-built fleets.

Rebuilding an industrial base takes years, but the economic ripple — from shipyards to steel mills to coastal employment — starts the moment capital begins flowing in.

Limited Time (Sponsored)

Under-the-Radar Winners

$1,000 in just seven stocks in 2004 could have turned into a million-dollar portfolio today…

Back then… one financial expert begged people to look at Nvidia -- when it was trading at just $1.10!

Now… he’s urging you to look at a new group of seven stocks…

Check this Out (The NEXT Magnificent Seven)  

Auto

The U.S. Auto and Energy Map Just Got Redrawn Overnight

The federal finding that greenhouse gas emissions endanger human health — the legal foundation for vehicle emission standards — has been repealed.

With it go the tailpipe rules that shaped how automakers designed, priced, and marketed cars and trucks for over a decade.

For the U.S. economy, this is not just an environmental headline. It is an industrial one.

Emission standards influenced billions of dollars in capital allocation across the auto manufacturing, battery supply chains, and clean energy infrastructure.

Removing them changes the investment math overnight.

A Different Road

Automakers now face a dramatically different regulatory landscape. Compliance costs drop, but so does the policy incentive to invest in electrification and fuel efficiency.

That creates a split — companies already committed to EV buildouts must decide whether to stay the course or slow down.

Dealers, suppliers, and workforce training programs are all calibrated around a transition timeline that just got rewritten.

The uncertainty itself becomes an economic variable, slowing decisions even where the rules have loosened.

Energy Investment Feels the Ripple

Clean energy tax credits have already been rolled back, and removing the emissions framework adds another layer of policy retreat.

Renewable energy developers and EV charging networks lose the regulatory tailwinds they had built business cases around.

Meanwhile, fossil fuel producers gain breathing room.

The shift redirects capital flows across the energy sector, favoring traditional production while raising questions about long-term competitiveness in a global market still moving toward lower emissions.

Metrics to Watch

• Services Inflation Momentum
  Goods cooled a bit, but services are still sticky. Watch medical care and travel-related costs. If services stay hot, the Fed stays cautious.
  

• Tariff Pass-Through in Everyday Prices
  Track appliances, furniture, and autos for signs businesses are pushing higher input costs onto consumers. If those categories keep jumping, the tariff story gets louder.
  

• Claims and Quiet-Layoff Signals
  Weekly jobless claims remain relatively calm, but listen for hiring freezes, reduced hours, and weaker temp staffing. That’s often where softening starts.
  

• Housing Spring Pulse Checks
  January home sales fell sharply, and weather helped, but affordability is still the main weight. Watch mortgage rates, time-on-market, and price cuts as the spring season ramps up.
  

• Consumer Spend vs. Confidence
  Retail sales were flat in December. Not a disaster, but not a flex either. Watch for trade-down behavior and signs credit is doing more of the work.

Market Movers

🧊 Housing is the Not-Broken-Just-Expensive Freeze
This setup tends to favor steady cash-flow businesses and punish anything that needs a cheerful housing mood to perform.

🧱 Tariff Makeover Coming? Consumer Relief vs. Industrial Pressure
If tariffs get sorted into different buckets, markets will immediately handicap who gets margin relief and who gets squeezed, especially in industrial inputs and building materials.

🏥 Jobs Update with Scrubs Carrying the Economy
Healthcare and social assistance are doing the hiring heavy lifting while office-land stays cautious. That shift changes where wage pressure sits and who has steadier demand.

⛽ Inflation Received a Good Headline with a Sticky Asterisk
Lower energy prices are helping the headline. If services don’t cool, rate-cut optimism can cool instead, and markets get more selective fast.

Market Impacts

Equities: Stocks basically shrugged at the softer CPI and still closed the week in the red. The big theme was not inflation, it was fear of getting caught holding the “AI loser” bag.

That selling spread past software into areas like real estate services, trucking, and parts of financials.

How to play it: Keep your core in high-quality winners with real pricing power and clean balance sheets.

Be picky with anything that could get disrupted or squeezed. If you want excitement, go watch a movie. If you want returns, stick with durability.

Bonds: Treasury yields slipped after the CPI came in a touch cooler, especially on the shorter end.

Translation: the bond market is willing to believe inflation is calming down, but it still wants proof before it throws a rate-cut party.

How to play it: The front and middle part of the curve still looks like the sweet spot for income without the emotional rollercoaster.

Keep some longer duration only if you want a hedge for a growth scare.

Currencies: The dollar mostly chopped around because the data was mildly helpful, not game-changing. The yen stole the spotlight with a strong week, while other majors drifted.

How to play it: Don’t fall in love with a currency move. Treat FX like hot sauce: a little adds flavor, too much ruins dinner.

If the U.S. data keeps cooling, the dollar can keep easing, but it will not be a straight line.

Commodities: Oil stayed steady, but it’s still getting yanked around by two things: OPEC+ supply chatter and geopolitics.

Inflation cooling helps the broader growth mood, but crude is basically trading headlines and barrels, not feelings.

Gold ripped higher on the softer CPI because rate-cut hopes are rocket fuel for non-yielding assets, especially when investors are already jumpy.

How to play it: Keep energy exposure boring on purpose. Favor the steadier parts of the chain like refiners and midstream over the most volatile drillers that whipsaw with every rumor.

For gold, treat it like insurance, not a get-rich plan: small position, rebalance when it gets too big, and don’t chase it after a face-melting day.

Free Access (Sponsored)

Double-Up Picks

A new research report highlights 5 stocks with the strongest potential to double in the year ahead.

Each was selected from thousands of companies and shows a rare mix of:

• Strong fundamentals
  

• Bullish technical setups

Past versions of this report delivered gains of +175%, +498%, and even +673%¹ — and the latest edition is free for a short time.

Available only until MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

Download the free report

Key Indicators to Watch

• Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Tue, Feb. 17, 8:30 a.m. ET) - A quick vibe check on factories. If it perks up, cyclicals breathe easier. If it sinks, defensives and bonds get the attention.
  

• Home Builder Confidence Index (Tue, Feb. 17, 10:00 a.m. ET) - Housing is already wobbling, so this one matters. If builders stay gloomy, don’t expect a magical spring revival.
  

• Housing Starts, November (Delayed) (Wed, Feb. 18, 8:30 a.m. ET)
  This is the “did higher rates break the shovel” report. Soft starts usually mean less momentum for housing-linked names and more pressure on the broader growth mood.
  

• Durable Goods Orders, December (Delayed) (Wed, Feb. 18, 8:30 a.m. ET)
  Big-ticket business spending check. A strong print helps industrials and signals confidence. A weak one supports the slower-growth narrative.
  

• Fed Minutes, January FOMC (Wed, Feb. 18, 2:00 p.m. ET)
  This is where investors search for clues like it’s a crime show. If the tone leans cautious, rate-cut hopes cool a bit. If it sounds more comfortable with disinflation, risk assets can catch a bid.

Everything Else

• 📉 A softer January CPI print kept the market calm, with cheaper gas doing the heavy lifting in the inflation report. 

• 🧾 Tariff collections are suddenly doing numbers, with U.S. customs duties up roughly 300% while everyone waits on a Supreme Court call. 

• 🧰 The January jobs picture looked sturdier than feared, but big revisions are still rewriting the backstory in the jobs report. 

• 🚢 Europe’s trade surplus keeps shrinking as U.S. tariffs bite and Chinese competition crowds the field, per new EU trade data. 

• 📆 Rate-cut bets crept higher after the inflation read, with futures nudging up the odds of a June move in Fed pricing.