Hello and welcome to Macro Notes, your go-to source for the latest macroeconomic trends, market-moving news, and key indicators to watch. We cut through the noise to bring you actionable insights in just a few minutes.

Sector Incentive Stocks (Sponsored)

Investors Are Rushing to These 7 Under-the-Radar Stocks

The second quarter has brought a wave of volatility, but also rare opportunity.

A just-released investor guide reveals seven stocks positioned to lead Q2, based on deep research and market momentum.

These companies have one thing in common: big upside with limited crowd exposure.

From energy to biotech, this report uncovers where the smart money is flowing.

Claim the full list now before institutional buyers drive up prices.

[Get Your Free Guide Now]

The Big Picture

Solar Industry

U.S. Solar Industry Braces for Financial Shock After Tax Hike and Subsidy Cuts 

Developers in the U.S. renewable energy sector are facing a dual setback.

The latest federal budget provisions introduce a 50% excise tax on solar and wind projects that use imported parts — a sharp blow to a supply chain heavily reliant on foreign materials.

At the same time, previously available federal tax credits for both personal and large-scale clean energy projects are being eliminated.

The sudden shift in policy is reshaping financial expectations for utilities and developers that have dominated new power construction over the past few years, with a focus on solar and wind initiatives.

For many firms, the economics of building new clean energy infrastructure have changed overnight.

Domestic manufacturers are not yet equipped to replace the volume of foreign components needed for utility-scale rollouts.

That gap, combined with the loss of federal support, is expected to increase project costs and narrow margins, particularly for grid-scale developments in high-demand states such as Texas, California, and Colorado.

Industry observers are now reevaluating future investment plans as budget constraints and shifting rules create new cost pressures.

A tax targeting foreign-made solar parts will apply broadly, affecting most projects already in the pipeline.

Federal policy now is prioritizing traditional energy sources, which could shift near-term capital allocation away from clean energy infrastructure.

That transition, if sustained, would reshape the growth trajectory of solar adoption and grid decarbonization nationwide.

Digital Economy

U.S. Pressure Pushes Canada to Ditch Digital Tax on Tech Giants 

Canada has officially rescinded its digital services tax just hours before enforcement, pulling back from a policy that would have imposed a 3% levy on tech giants, including U.S.-based firms such as Amazon, Meta, and Google.

The reversal follows sharp trade consequences and highlights America’s enduring leverage over its closest trading partner.

Tensions had escalated as the tax, which applied retroactively to 2022, threatened to create a flashpoint in U.S.-Canada economic relations.

U.S. goods trade with Canada totaled over $760 billion last year, and digital platforms account for a growing share of that value.

By backing down, Canada avoids disrupting critical flows of goods, services, and investment.

Underlying the dispute is a larger global challenge: how to tax digital revenues in a fair and coordinated way.

While multilateral talks on digital taxation remain unresolved, unilateral moves, such as Canada’s, now carry the risk of retaliation.

The U.S. response suggests that fragmented national tax rules targeting American companies may lead to economic fallout beyond fines or compliance costs.

Implications stretch far beyond North America. Countries considering similar digital levies may now hesitate, recalibrating their approach to avoid provoking a trade backlash. 

As digital commerce expands and tax policy evolves, the U.S. remains a central player in shaping international standards for how digital revenues are treated in cross-border trade.

Exit the Chaos (Sponsored)

How Gold Became the Only Asset Trusted in 2025

Markets don’t wait for calm—especially when political chaos takes center stage.

With Trump and Musk locked in a growing public feud, the fear of market volatility is very real.

While the headlines escalate, institutions are quietly stockpiling gold to shield against the blowback.

This free Gold IRA Survival Guide outlines a fully legal way to reposition your savings now—without taxes or penalties.

Get ahead of the next wave before the damage becomes irreversible.

[Get the Gold Protection Guide Free]

Public Finance

Immigrant Finances in Focus as U.S. Policy Shifts Toward Financial Gatekeeping 

A sweeping legislative package in Congress could reshape the economic outlook for millions of immigrant households in the U.S.

Proposals under consideration include taxing remittances, restricting access to the Child Tax Credit, and charging new fees for asylum applications.

These measures collectively signal a shift in how immigration is treated within U.S. fiscal policy.

Financial support systems used by immigrant families, both documented and undocumented, would be directly affected.

Stripping benefits, such as the child tax credit, reduces disposable income for low- and middle-income households, with ripple effects in local economies where immigrant spending plays a significant role.

A remittance tax could also cut off a vital financial pipeline to developing countries, curbing cross-border cash flow and increasing pressure on foreign aid systems.

At the macro level, the shift reflects a broader trend toward utilizing the tax code and access to federal programs as tools for immigration control.

It departs from previous models that treated immigration primarily as a labor market and humanitarian issue.

Analysts warn that narrowing access to benefits while increasing application costs may reduce incentives for legal immigration and ultimately slow population growth, a key driver of long-term economic expansion.

The proposals are still under review, and the final terms remain uncertain.

For now, the direction signals tighter financial restrictions tied to immigration status with long-term implications for labor, consumption, and community-level economic stability.

Metrics to Watch

• Rate Cuts: Markets are increasingly pricing in summertime rate cuts, with average price action indicating an 18-basis-point drop over the next few months.

• Tax Bill, More Debt: Trump’s tax bill will add as much as $3 trillion to the deficit, according to the Congressional Budget Office. 

• Canadian Capitulation: Canada axed a planned digital service tax (~3% on some online service revenues, notably affecting mega-caps like Google and Meta) in a negotiating tactic over tariffs.   

• Platinum’s Pop: The precious metal edged out gold’s recent outperformance, gaining 28% in June.

Next AI Boom (Sponsored)

Analysts Are Watching These 9 Undervalued AI Stocks

Tensions between the U.S. and China are rewriting the rules of the AI economy — and Wall Street is already adjusting.

Nvidia is taking a hit from new export restrictions, but several smaller, U.S.-based players are quietly stepping into the spotlight.

A newly released report highlights 9 under-the-radar AI stocks that are already aligned with Washington’s new direction — and may see outsized upside as a result.

These names offer deep AI exposure, domestic infrastructure, and momentum most investors haven’t noticed yet.

Access our FREE report, "Top 9 AI Stocks for This Month" to discover these opportunities before the broader market catches on.

Market Movers

☕️ Luckin Coffee is Making Moves: Luckin Coffee kickstarted its U.S. debut with two New York City stores, directly challenging Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) by leveraging affordable, Gen Z-targeted drinks and mobile ordering. 

The Chinese chain, which overtook Starbucks in China with 22,000 locations, aims to replicate its low-cost, tech-driven model domestically (but don’t forget the 2020 fraud scandal that cratered the stock immediately pre-pandemic!).

🏢 Powell Faces Heat Over Fed’s Lavish HQ Revamp: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s denial of luxury upgrades in a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation, contradicted by planning documents, sparked outrage from senators following Powell’s Congressional testimony last week. 

The controversy, likened to a “Palace of Versailles” by South Carolina’s Senator Tim Scott, sparked calls for congressional censure, adding pressure to Powell as Trump pushes for an early replacement.

🔨 Home Depot’s Big Bet on Pros: Home Depot’s (NYSE: HD) just-announced planned GMS (NYSE: GMS) acquisition for $4.3 billion aims to capture contractor sales, implying a projected homebuilding rebound and sending GMS shares soaring by about 11%. 

The deal, set to close by early 2026, strengthens Home Depot’s subsidiary, SRS Distribution, though rising construction costs could pressure margins and slow ROI. 

☀️ Clean Energy Stocks Slammed by Trump’s Tax Plan: Trump’s legislation taxing Chinese components in wind and solar projects and phasing out credits by 2027 crushed large-scale solar project stocks like NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE), down about 4%, and Enphase (NASDAQ: ENPH), off 3%.

Rooftop solar firms like Sunrun (NASDAQ: RUN) and First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), both up 7%+, are shielded from the volatility due to extended leases and component credits, respectively, though accelerated execution timelines create a new risk angle.

Market Impacts

Equities: Continued July rate cut expectations are boosting emerging-markets stocks like the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: EEM), up 15% YTD. 

Note, though, that JPMorgan strategists warn cuts driven by slowing growth or tariff-induced inflation could disappoint, making defensive sectors like healthcare and staples a viable diversification strategy.

Bonds: Treasury yields dipped to 4.25% on 10-year notes (TMUBMUSD10Y) as traders bet on two Fed rate cuts by year-end, with the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: IEF) gaining just under 2% in June. 

Thursday’s jobs report, forecasting 113,000 new jobs, could sway yields if it signals labor market weakness.

Currencies: Processing $15 billion daily in net transaction volume, stablecoins are driving currency market action as remittances and hedging in high-inflation markets like Argentina grow. 

The Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSEARCA: FXE) is holding steady against stablecoins at +15% since January, but a weakening dollar (DXY, down 1.6% on the month) reflects continued mixed feelings about U.S. economic prospects, boosting stablecoin adoption. 

Commodities: The sharp drop in the gold-platinum ratio, with platinum (PL00) rising 40% since April and nearly 50% since January, may signal the end of gold’s recent bull run and pressure gold-backed funds like the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD). 

Historically tied to geopolitical risk, the ratio’s decline suggests fading risk premiums, dimming near-term prospects for commodity-heavy portfolios despite a seemingly unbreakable economy.

Free AI Guide (Sponsored)

Profiting from Artificial Intelligence: Free Investor's Guide

It's lifting Artificial Intelligence to a new level — answering follow-up questions, admitting mistakes, challenging incorrect premises, rejecting inappropriate requests, and more.

That’s why Zacks just released a Special Report that names and explains 5 tickers to lead the way.

Among them is a “Sleeper Stock” that is still cruising under Wall Street’s radar.

All 5 have exceptional profit potential. There couldn’t be a better time for this investor briefing.

Click here now to claim your copy FREE

*This free resource is being sent by Zacks. We identify investment resources you may choose to use in making your own decisions. Use of this resource is subject to the Zacks Terms of Service.
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk. This material does not constitute investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed dealer, broker, or investment adviser.

Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speech – July 1st at 9:30 AM EST: Powell’s in the hot seat, so expect his remarks Tuesday morning to see fierce scrutiny.    

• 📅 Job Openings (May) – July 1st: A teaser for Thursday’s unemployment report, a significant dip could trigger preliminary volatility. 

• 📅 U.S. Unemployment Rate (June) – July 3rd: The report will be a major boon to rate-cut advocates if the numbers dip.

Everything Else

• A planned tax bill amendment drafted by Senator Lisa Murkowski may be solar stocks’ saving grace. 

• Specific immigration exemptions may boost the agriculture and hospitality sectors if “temporary pass” conditions take effect.

• Google is the latest mega-cap to throw its weight behind innovative nuclear energy tech.

• JPMorgan analysts came out against Circle’s bloated valuation (despite underwriting its IPO), saying that per-share pricing is “outside our comfort zone.”  

• Crypto traders were struck a blow today as the Supreme Court declined to answer whether IRS demands for Coinbase transaction data were legal.