The consensus was that a divided Congress would freeze markets. Instead, you got a relief rally in rate-sensitive names, an energy unwind, and precious metals jumping on a weaker dollar.

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The Big Picture

Retail

Holiday Hiring Is Rebounding, but Permanent Jobs Tell a Different Story

Major U.S. employers are planning more seasonal hiring to handle holiday orders and deliveries. Five large companies have announced 470,400 temporary positions through October, up 26% from the same period last year.

Amazon accounts for 300,000 planned hires, while UPS has announced another 100,000 positions. Although hiring plans have recovered from last year's unusually weak level, the total remains below the 660,150 positions announced in 2024.

Temporary Hiring Comes With Limits

The recovery does not mean companies are expanding their permanent workforces at the same pace. Retail, transportation, and technology businesses have continued announcing job cuts even as they recruit extra workers for the busiest shopping months.

Seasonal hiring allows employers to handle a short burst of demand without committing to year-round payroll expenses.

A company can need more people to pack orders in December while still reducing staff elsewhere or keeping longer-term hiring plans limited.

Extra Paychecks Offer Short-Term Support

Temporary work can provide additional income for households facing holiday expenses and everyday bills. More warehouse, delivery, and retail positions can also help businesses process purchases quickly and keep goods moving during a demanding period.

The wider economic benefit depends partly on what happens after the holiday rush ends. Seasonal wages can support spending for several months, but lasting gains in household financial security depend on steady employment.

The hiring rebound offers useful support, while leaving open the question of how many workers will find opportunities beyond the season.

Manufacturing

Higher Cabinet Tariffs Could Raise the Cost of Kitchen Renovations

American cabinet dealers and contractors face another increase in import costs, with tariffs on Canadian kitchen cabinets scheduled to rise from 25% to 50% on January 1, 2027. The change could affect purchasing decisions for homebuilding and renovation projects.

Suppliers are already adjusting to existing duties. Some have absorbed part of the cost to retain U.S. customers, while cabinet maker Cabico is considering working with American partners to produce goods domestically.

Renovation Budgets Could Feel the Pressure

Cabinets can be a major expense in a kitchen renovation, making contractors and homeowners sensitive to price changes. Higher import costs could push buyers toward cheaper designs, prompt supplier switches, or delay projects until budgets allow more room.

A 50% tariff does not mean the entire renovation bill rises by 50%. The final effect depends on the cabinets purchased, how much suppliers and dealers absorb, and other expenses, including installation, appliances, and labor.

Domestic Production Offers Another Option

Higher duties could create opportunities for American manufacturers if dealers shift more orders toward domestic suppliers. Producing cabinets inside the United States could also help foreign companies retain customers while reducing their exposure to import tariffs.

However, moving production or finding a suitable manufacturing partner takes time and money.

For the broader economy, the outcome will depend on whether domestic capacity expands enough to meet demand at competitive prices, or whether higher costs lead households to postpone renovations and contractors to take on fewer projects.

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Data Centers

The Midterms Put Data-Center Power Costs Under Scrutiny

The cost of powering large data centers is drawing greater attention following election victories by candidates supporting tighter oversight. OpenAI has committed to preventing residents from paying for electricity used by its projects and to making development agreements more transparent.

The framework combines earlier promises with additional measures, including avoiding confidentiality agreements when negotiating data-center deals.

The company wants its approach reflected in legislation, but the announcement does not create nationwide legal protections.

Electricity Bills Meet Construction Plans

Large data centers need substantial electricity supplies, raising questions about who should pay for the infrastructure that supports them.

If developers cover those expenses, households could be better protected from costs associated with serving new industrial customers.

Stricter conditions could also affect where and when projects proceed. UBS estimates that development pauses could affect about 30% of expected data-center additions in 2028, although the estimate does not mean those projects have been canceled.

Local Benefits Face a Bigger Test

For communities, proposed projects can bring construction work, business orders, and additional tax revenue. Residents and officials must weigh those benefits against electricity demand, water use, and the public spending needed to support development.

The broader economic question is whether companies can keep building while securing local support and covering the costs their facilities create.

Stronger agreements could help projects move forward, while prolonged disputes could delay construction and equipment purchases. The election has increased pressure to show how the benefits reach the communities hosting the expansion.

Metrics to Watch

• 📊 ISM Services PMI (October)
  The index printed 54.5, down from 54.9 and slightly below expectations. Employment inside the survey rose to 51.4 from 50.1. That's the piece you want to watch. If services jobs are still being added, the Fed has cover to stay patient.
  

• 📈 ADP Private Payrolls (October)
  Added 86,000 jobs, matching September's revised gain and beating the 75,000 estimate. Not booming, but not the collapse the bears were pricing. If Friday's BLS number lands near the 65,000 consensus, the soft-landing narrative stays intact.
  

• 💹 10-Year Treasury Yield
  Closed at 4.89%, down from 4.95% as the midterm outcome drove a flight into duration. If you own long-duration assets, the macro setup finally stopped working against you. Watch for a break below 4.80%.
  

• 🛢️Oil Collapse
  Brent dropped 8.7% to settle near $95, with WTI near $88. Lower energy prices reach headline CPI with a lag of a month or two. That's your inflation relief, if it sticks.
  

• 💰 Gold Near $4,070
  Up 3.4% on the day as the dollar and Treasury yields fell. Silver added about 5% to roughly $52. Gold is still well below its 52-week high above $5,300, so you are looking at a bounce, not a breakout.

Market Movers

🏛️ Divided Government Pricing In
Markets rallied because gridlock blocks both tariff expansion and new spending. A textbook relief rally in rate-sensitive sectors and anything that was penalized by policy unpredictability. Expect the honeymoon to last until the first real budget fight in the new Congress.

🌍 Iran De-escalation Trade
A Democratic Congress is unlikely to authorize continued conflict spending, and traders are pricing in a path toward a ceasefire. That took the geopolitical premium out of crude overnight. If you were short energy or long airlines, consumer, and industrials, this is your tailwind.

💵 Dollar Slips
The dollar index fell about 0.3% to 101.5, with the euro and yen both gaining. A weaker dollar helps US multinational earnings translate better and gives emerging markets room to breathe. If you own international exposure, that is a tailwind worth noting.

📉 Treasury Refunding Language Shift
Treasury kept auction sizes unchanged on Wednesday but dropped "at least" from its guidance, saying it expects to hold coupon sizes steady "for the next several quarters." Many analysts read that as opening the door to auction-size changes within a few quarters. If you own long bonds, watch supply guidance as closely as the Fed.

Market Impacts

📈 Equities: The Dow added 3.03% to 53,356, the S&P 500 gained 1.58% to 7,689, and the Nasdaq rose 1.44% to 25,737. Most sectors closed green, led by Consumer Discretionary at +4.26%. The VIX collapsed 20% to 16.61, which tells you the hedging demand coming into the election has been fully unwound.

🏦 Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.89% from 4.95%, and shorter maturities rallied too. Futures still priced roughly a 77% chance of a December hike, so one strong day for bonds is not a policy pivot.

💱 Currencies: The dollar index slid about 0.3% to 101.5. The euro and yen both gained, and emerging market currencies had a strong day as oil fell.

🛢️Commodities: Brent settled down 8.7% near $95 and WTI near $88. Gold rose 3.4% to about $4,070, silver jumped about 5% to roughly $52, and copper was essentially flat near $6.40. Precious metals are tracking the weaker dollar and lower yields, not a softer Fed.

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Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 Friday, November 6, BLS Employment Situation for October (8:30 AM ET): Consensus calls for payrolls of about 65,000 after 29,000 in September, with unemployment holding at 4.2%. A hot print firms up December hike odds. A weak one chips away at them. This is the one that matters.
  

• 📅 Friday, November 6, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, preliminary November (10:00 AM ET): Watch the inflation expectations line. If households are still bracing for faster price gains, the Fed has less room than the market thinks.
  

• 📅 Tuesday, November 10, October CPI (8:30 AM ET): The first inflation read since crude's slide. Any upside surprise would have to come from services, which is where the Fed is already focused. Treasury also auctions $42 billion of 10-year notes that day.
  

• 📅 Thursday, November 12, 30-year bond auction: Treasury sells $25 billion of 30-year bonds. After Wednesday's refunding language shift, demand at the long end is worth watching for anyone holding duration.
  

• 📅 Friday, November 13, October PPI (8:30 AM ET): Producer prices show whether lower energy costs are reaching the pipeline. A soft print would back up the inflation-relief story from oil.

Everything Else

• 👷 Private-sector hiring added 86,000 jobs in October, beating forecasts as service industries drove employment growth despite continued weakness in professional services.

• 📦 America's trade deficit narrowed slightly to $105 billion in September, even as AI infrastructure spending pushed imports to a record $426.6 billion.

• 🏭 Service-sector activity continued expanding in October, although slower new orders and persistent input-cost pressures highlighted ongoing inflation challenges.

• 💰 The U.S. Treasury signaled potential changes to bond issuance, opening the door to adjustments in long-term debt sales as federal borrowing costs remain elevated.

• 🏠 Adjustable-rate mortgages gained popularity among homebuyers as borrowers sought relief from fixed mortgage rates near 7.3%, despite sluggish overall housing demand.