Home sales perked up as rates eased a touch, showing buyers will buy when mortgages blink lower.

The jobs readout finally arrived but it is old, the Fed is split, and Europe is growing with a limp.

Add a cheaper Thanksgiving basket and you get a week where feelings matter almost as much as spreadsheets.

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The Big Picture

Energy

AI’s Hunger Is Reshaping the U.S. Power Map

AI data centers are pulling electricity at a pace the grid was never designed to handle.

Growth in computing is rising faster than the new generation can come online, creating a scramble for whatever capacity the system can keep running.

This pressure is triggering a broader rethink of how the U.S. should scale its energy mix.

Natural gas, nuclear, and storage remain priorities, but the gap between demand and supply is widening faster than expected.

The result is a short-term push for stability over long-term idealism.

Coal Plants Get an Unexpected Second Act

Several regions now lean on coal plants far longer than planned because they deliver steady baseload when digital loads spike.

These facilities were supposed to be phased out, but high-capacity requirements and uneven renewable buildouts have revived their importance.

At the same time, utilities are investing in cleaner assets like storage and solar, but those additions take years to permit and build.

Until then, operators are choosing reliability in the face of soaring AI-driven demand.

America’s Power Strategy Just Got More Complicated

Future grid planning now centers on data centers, industrial reshoring, and electrification trends that intensify each year.

The U.S. must expand transmission, accelerate nuclear timelines, and modernize interconnection rules to avoid regional shortages.

This moment reflects a turning point where energy policy becomes inseparable from America’s digital ambitions.

Climate Risk

Corporate Push the Climate Agenda Without Waiting for Washington

While federal momentum wobbles, U.S. companies keep expanding their climate footprint abroad.

Attendance by major firms at global climate forums has surged, signaling that boardrooms see long-term risks and rewards far beyond the next policy cycle.

Executives across tech, manufacturing, energy, finance, and food are leaning into global climate platforms to protect operations.

With extreme weather pushing up insurance costs and logistics strain, businesses view climate planning as risk management, not politics.

Markets Move Faster Than Policy

A growing share of U.S. emissions cuts now comes from corporate action and state-level programs.

Clean energy workforces are expanding, grid upgrades continue, and investment pipelines in electrification stay active.

Many firms have set internal climate targets that exceed federal requirements.

This bottom-up momentum is reshaping how global regulators interpret U.S. participation.

Even without a unified national posture, the private sector keeps showing up with new technologies, procurement plans, and renewable project commitments.

Climate Strategy Becomes Economic Strategy

Companies see climate adaptation as a competitive moat.

Protecting crops, factories, and distribution networks from climate volatility drives investment into resilience tools and low-carbon systems.

Supply security now depends on farmers, materials, and energy inputs that can withstand more shocks.

For global partners, the consistent presence of U.S. businesses signals where the world’s largest economy is heading.

Capital flows, innovation paths, and market standards continue to bend toward a cleaner industrial future, whether federal policy leads or lags.

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Trade Flows

Shutdown Shock Fades as New Tailwinds Lift the Outlook

The recent shutdown left a permanent dent in national output, but the broader U.S. engine avoided a full stall.

The drag landed mostly in federal services, travel, and delayed payments, creating a short-term shock rather than a structural shift.

Interest-sensitive sectors like housing continue to feel the weight of past rate hikes, but the pressure is easing.

Falling energy costs and improving supply chains are supporting a rebound that should carry momentum into next year.

Policy Tailwinds Are Building

Recent tax adjustments aimed at boosting disposable income could lift spending power for working households.

Measures tied to overtime, tips, and certain deductions act as small but widespread stimulants that ripple through retail, automotive, and service sectors.

Combined with cooling inflation, the setup favors stronger real income gains in early 2026.

Trade changes are also reshaping price dynamics.

Lower import barriers on key goods help soften food and commodity costs, while ongoing agreements position U.S. exporters for better volume across several regions.

Growth Turns to the Global Stage

New plant announcements linked to trade deals point to fresh investment cycles ahead.

These openings support manufacturing jobs, logistics activity, and regional power demand, reinforcing long-term industrial growth.

Even with political gridlock still looming, market signals point to steady expansion rather than contraction.

The combination of easing rates, rising refunds, and stronger trade channels keeps the U.S. on a stable, forward-leaning path through 2026.

Metrics to Watch

• Mortgage rates and pending sales: Small rate moves are already pulling buyers back. Track weekly rate quotes and contract signings to see if October’s pop turns into a trend.

• Price cuts and cancellations: Discounts and backouts tell you how confident buyers feel. Rising concessions help volume but say demand still needs coaxing.

• Jobless claims and continuing claims: Fresh claims stayed tame, but the level of people still on benefits nudged up. That gap says more about hiring speed than any single headline.

• Fed speak versus cut odds: Collins signaled no rush while others hinted there is room to ease. Watch how each speech nudges December probabilities.

• Holiday basket prices and traffic: Cheaper birds and rollbacks are catnip for value shoppers. Follow promo cadence and store traffic as a read on Q4 margins and mix.

Market Movers

🏠 Housing Bounce with Training Wheels
Existing home sales hit an eight-month high. Good news, but supply is still tight and buyers remain picky. Treat it as a gentle tailwind, but not a strong one.

🧑‍⚖️ Stale Jobs Data Meets Live Markets
A 119k print looks fine, yet it is yesterday’s weather. Markets will overreact to any real-time clues until the data calendar catches up.

🗣️ Fed Choir, Different Verses
One camp says patience on cuts, another whispers near-term relief. That split keeps rates choppy and favors companies with clean balance sheets.

🇪🇺 Eurozone: Serviceable Services, Soggy Factories
PMI stayed in growth, but manufacturing sagged. U.S. multinationals like the weaker euro backdrop, exporters less so.

🦃 Thanksgiving on Sale
Turkey and stuffing got cheaper. Retailers leaning into value baskets may win trips and clicks, but watch if promos pinch gross margin.

🧲 Dollar Drift Watch
If cut odds creep higher, the dollar can soften. That helps commodity plays and global brands, and pinches travelers and importers.

🧭 Consumer Split Screen
Higher-income households are still spending. Younger and lower-income shoppers are cautious. Position around staples, sharp promos, and fast delivery to capture both.

Market Impacts

Equities: Futures are green into a thin holiday week as traders try a rebound after the AI wobble. Expect louder moves on lighter volume.

If you want to keep it simple, lean into cash-generating tech tied to the data-center buildout, plus steady healthcare and quality retailers that win on promos.

Use red mornings to add, avoid chasing the hottest tape at lunch.

Bonds: Yields eased after Williams floated room to cut in December, then chopped as other Fed voices stayed cautious.

The two-to-five-year area still works for clean income. Keep a small sleeve of long Treasurys as shock absorbers if growth headlines sour or supply jitters pop up.

Currencies: The dollar is steady. Yen is on intervention watch with traders eyeing the 158–162 zone, and a holiday lull could be a window for a surprise move.

If markets lean toward a December cut, the buck can drift lower again, which helps multinationals and gold but stings overseas travel.

Commodities: Oil is slipping on peace-talk optimism and a firmer dollar. That setup favors refiners and midstream over more volatile drillers.

Gold cooled as the dollar firmed and the cut odds wobbled, but it still earns a small insurance slot. Size it so a normal shakeout does not shake you out.

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Key Indicators to Watch

• Retail Sales, delayed Sept. read (Tue 8:30 a.m. ET)
  Clean look at the consumer. A solid print says holiday budgets are intact and usually lifts discretionary and shipping. A miss helps staples and bonds.

• Producer Price Index and Core PPI, delayed Sept. (Tue 8:30 a.m. ET)
  Factory-gate inflation. Cooler helps the cut narrative and eases front-end yields. Hotter stiffens the dollar and pressures high-multiple growth.

• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, Sept. (Tue 9:00 a.m. ET)
  Price pulse for housing. Softer gains plus lower mortgage quotes support a gradual volume recovery. Surprise strength can keep shelter sticky and nudge yields up.

• Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Nov. (Tue 10:00 a.m. ET)
  Vibes check. Rising confidence helps retailers and travel into Thanksgiving. A drop pushes investors toward value grocers and utilities.

• Initial Jobless Claims, week of Nov. 22 (Wed 8:30 a.m. ET)
  Fastest labor read while other data are delayed. Calm claims back the cooling-not-cracking view. A spike favors longer-duration bonds and dents cyclicals.

Everything Else

• The stats blackout drags on after the BLS canceled the October CPI, so the Fed heads into December with one eye closed.

• A delayed September jobs print showed 119,000 added and unemployment a touch higher, which keeps both camps in the rate-cut debate busy.

• Meanwhile, the October jobs data is still on ice as the government catches up, so markets are leaning on private gauges and vibes.

• On Main Street, factory activity cooled and inventories piled up, a combo that usually makes CFOs reach for the discount bin.

• And in D.C., the CBO trimmed its view of how much Trump’s tariffs cut the deficit, taking a trillion off the earlier tally and reopening the value vs. sticker-price argument.