Mortgage demand re-cooled after a mini refi pop, the EU just inked a tariff-slashing deal with Indonesia, the OECD says 2026 takes the bigger tariff hit, and U.S. PMIs are slowing.

We’ll sift the macro for signals that matter, so you can position before the herd.

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The Big Picture

Consumer Spending

U.S. Economy Just Hit the Gas — Fastest Growth in Two Years

The U.S. economy just clocked its quickest growth in nearly two years, and the engine behind it wasn’t Wall Street wizardry — it was Main Street.

Strong consumer spending and a burst of business investment pushed second-quarter growth higher than expected, giving America a rare jolt of momentum.

Shoppers Still Carry the Load

Even with prices higher and job headlines shaky, consumers kept swiping cards and filling carts.

Add in businesses doubling down on new equipment, and you’ve got a growth cocktail strong enough to offset trade headwinds.

Imports slowed sharply, narrowing the trade deficit and adding extra horsepower to GDP.

Can the Streak Last?

Here’s the catch: momentum already appears to be easing. Hiring has cooled, trade fights are still rattling nerves, and the Fed is juggling whether it should cut again or sit tight.

For now, though, the numbers prove the U.S. economy is far from stalling.

It may not be the smoothest ride, but America just reminded the world it can still floor the accelerator when it counts.

Labor

When HR’s Favorite Word Is“Restructure” Layoffs Sweep the Economy

The U.S. is facing another round of widespread job cuts, with companies across various industries trimming their payrolls to manage costs.

From factories to offices, the slowdown in labor demand is leaving more workers vulnerable, and the macroeconomic picture is becoming harder to ignore.

A Job Market Losing Its Edge

New government data shows job openings fell to their lowest level in 10 months.

Employers aren’t exactly panicking, but they’re definitely pulling back, which makes finding new work tougher than it was even a year ago.

Meanwhile, layoffs ticked higher, signaling that “restructuring” is more than a buzzword on conference calls — it’s hitting real people’s paychecks.

What once looked like isolated cuts in tech or retail is now a broader trend spanning multiple sectors.

Ripple Effects Beyond the Pink Slips

Layoffs aren’t just a corporate belt-tightening exercise; they ripple into consumer spending, housing decisions, and overall confidence.

When workers worry about job security, they dial back on everything from shopping sprees to big-ticket purchases.

That’s the real macro sting: slower spending means weaker growth, even in areas not directly hit by layoffs.

With the labor market softening and households tightening their budgets, the U.S. economy is entering a more cautious chapter, where resilience will be tested.

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Global Capital

When U.S. Money Packs Its Bags, Hedge Funds Chase Safer Shores

Big American money is acting like a restless tourist: skipping local spots and booking long stays in Europe and the Middle East.

A new Bank of America survey reveals that wealthy U.S. and Asian investors are withdrawing from American hedge funds and redirecting billions abroad instead.

Why the Sudden Global Detour?

It’s less about glitzy yachts in Dubai and more about perception.

Investors view the U.S. as unstable, with policy swings, sticky inflation, and volatile rates, while European and Gulf hubs offer steadier environments (and sometimes more favorable tax deals).

When half of last year’s would-be U.S. hedge fund allocators say “never mind,” that’s a sentiment shift worth watching.

At the same time, Abu Dhabi and Dubai have quietly become hedge fund hotspots, providing global capital with a new and attractive playground.

It’s a reminder that America doesn’t always own the monopoly on investor confidence.

What It Means for Wall Street

Here’s the kicker: when money skips the U.S., it doesn’t just dent Wall Street bragging rights.

It signals waning trust in America’s financial edge and tighter conditions for raising capital stateside.

Sure, public equity funds just enjoyed a $58 billion inflow, but that looks more like a short-term fling than a long-term marriage.

For the broader U.S. economy, this is yet another warning light: capital is global, loyalty is fleeting, and America must work harder to remain the preferred destination.

Metrics to Watch

• Powell’s “Modestly Restrictive” Cue (this week): Powell said policy is still tight-ish even after the cut, and he didn’t push back on the market’s odds of another move this fall.
  
  That means cuts stay on the table, but he’s balancing “no risk-free path” with lingering inflation risk.
  
  

• Mortgage Pulse (weekly MBAs): After a 58% refi burst, total apps barely rose (+0.6%) and purchase apps were flat, even with ~6.3–6.4% 30-yr rates.
  
  Watch if lower yields actually unlock buyers, or if affordability + price stickiness keep housing sluggish.
  
  

• Trade Rewiring (EU–Indonesia): A fresh deal wipes out ~98% of tariffs between the EU and Indonesia, a sign supply chains keep diversifying around U.S. tariff frictions.
  
  Keep an eye on EU autos, EV inputs, and nickel/copper supply lines.
  
  

• Tariff Overhang (OECD): Growth proves resilient near term, but the OECD flags a bigger drag landing in 2026 as higher effective U.S. tariffs (now near multi-decade highs) filter through prices and demand.
  
  

• U.S. Activity Check (S&P Flash PMI, Tue): Composite cooled to 53.6 from 54.6, with firms reporting weaker pricing power.
  
  Good for disinflation narrative; not great for revenue momentum, margin management stays front and center.

Market Movers

📉 Cuts Continue? Pace > Path

Powell’s “modestly restrictive” line lets the Fed trim again without promising a race to zero.

Positioning: favor quality growth and IG credit (A/BBB); own a bit of duration (5–10y), and keep optionality (calls on duration or quality factor tilts) for a slower-growth glide path.

🏠 Housing: Cooler Heads, Cooler Apps

Refis popped, then fizzled; purchases barely budged. Until affordability or prices blink, be selective in housing: prefer service/light-asset suppliers and repair/remodel over volume-dependent builders; watch regional mix (Midwest/Northeast > South/West inventory pockets).

🌏 Supply Chains Shuffle

EU–Indonesia’s deal underscores a multi-polar trade map. Lean into diversified sourcing winners (global OEMs with alternative inputs) and critical-minerals adjacencies; hedge EU cyclicals with exporters levered to Asia-ex-China demand.

📦 Tariff Drag: 2026 Is the Story

OECD says the tariff bite compounds later. Near term, companies juggle inventories and margins; into ’26, pass-through risk rises.

Prefer brands with pricing power, software/subscription models, and high-ROIC compounders over thin-margin goods importers.

🧭 Macro Mix: Slower PMIs, Softer Pricing

PMIs eased and selling-price power weakened, disinflation-friendly, growth-edgy.

Keep a barbell of quality tech + healthcare on one side, defensives (staples, utilities) and a gold sleeve on the other as policy/volatility ballast.

Market Impacts

Equities: Futures are trying to shake off an early week wobble but the AI complex got a confidence boost from Micron’s beat-and-raise (revenue +46% y/y) and a premarket pop in Nvidia/Alibaba on fresh AI spend plans. 

It was classic “priced-for-perfection” jitters after the S&P tagged fresh highs, plus Powell’s reminder that easing ≠ joyride. Add in shutdown noise and you’ve got choppier tape.

Keep riding quality growth and AI adjacencies (profit + cash flow > story), but size positions for two more measured cuts, not a slashing cycle.

Stock-picking matters; reward capex that clearly converts to earnings, fade hope-and-hype rallies.

Bonds: Treasuries are a touch firmer into data (10y ~4.11%, 2y ~3.57%, 30y ~4.73%). Markets heard Powell: “two-sided risks, no risk-free path.”

Translation: cuts can continue, but the long end still watches deficits, supply, and shutdown chatter.

Tactics: add on 2–5y backups, keep some 30y hedges in case PCE surprises hot or issuance headlines spark a term-premium creep.

If claims cool and PMIs drift, a gentle bull-steepener can reassert.

Currencies: The dollar’s inching higher after Powell’s cautious tone (DXY ~97.6), with EUR/USD ~1.177 and USD/JPY ~148.0.

Markets still price two more cuts this year, but near-term USD direction rides on PCE/claims.

Set-up to tactically lean modestly short USD into a soft core PCE print, but keep stops tight, one upside surprise and you’ll get a sharp snapback.

Commodities: Gold stays near record highs (~$3,779 spot; Tuesday peak ~$3,791) on cuts are back + geopolitics + Fed independence chatter.

Base case is consolidation $3,700–$3,900 with dips bought as long as labor softens and inflation doesn’t re-accelerate.

Crude is firmer (Brent ~$67.9, WTI ~$63.7) on API-flagged draws and assorted supply wrinkles (Kurdish flows stalled, Venezuela export hiccups), but macro demand is still the soft underbelly and many expect Q4 stock builds.

Think sell rips unless real supply is lost; favor refiners/transport over high-beta upstream until demand data turn.

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Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 Initial Jobless Claims (Thu, 8:30 a.m. ET)
  Consensus 235k (prior 231k). A drift back toward 230–240k keeps the soft, not breaking labor narrative intact; a surprise back into the 260s would revive back-to-back cuts chatter, and help duration.
  

• 📅 Durable Goods Orders (Thu, 8:30 a.m. ET)
  Headline -0.5% (prior -2.8%); ex-transport +1.1% prior. A steadier core says capex is hanging in; a miss would ding cyclicals and support your quality tilt.
  

• 📅 Existing Home Sales (Thu, 10:00 a.m. ET)
  Consensus 3.95M (prior 4.01M). Another slip reinforces the housing-drag theme, good for staples/value retail/REITs with strong balance sheets, tougher for rate-sensitive builders.
  

• 📅 Core PCE (Fri, 8:30 a.m. ET)
  Consensus +0.2% m/m, 2.9% y/y (prior +0.3%, 2.9%). A 0.2% keeps measured cuts on track and is bullish duration; a 0.3% re-opens the debate on how fast the Fed can go.
  

• 📅 Personal Spending (Fri, 8:30 a.m. ET)
  Consensus +0.5% (prior +0.5%). Solid but slowing spend supports a soft-landing tale; a downside miss amplifies consumer-fatigue risk and argues for staying up the quality ladder in credit and equities.

Everything Else

• Fed Chair Powell said stock prices look fairly highly valued, a reminder that valuations aren’t cheap even in a rate-cut cycle.

• The OECD boosted its global growth outlook, with the U.S. economy still surprising to the upside despite tariffs and slower jobs momentum.

• Fresh data shows business activity cooled again in September, hinting at weaker demand across both manufacturing and services.

• The Chicago Fed’s interim model suggests unemployment hit 4.3% this month, keeping the labor-market slowdown front and center.

• And the OECD warned the tariff shock hasn’t fully landed yet—meaning the real bite for growth and inflation could come in 2026.