Powell’s Jackson Hole signal put September cuts in play, but investors can’t ignore rising jobless claims, cooling home sales, and uneven factory demand.

Here’s how these forces could affect your portfolio in the weeks ahead.

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The Big Picture

Manufacturing

U.S. Targets $3 Billion in Steel Imports as Trade Enforcement Redefines Industrial Policy

The U.S. Department of Commerce has affirmed new anti-dumping and countervailing duties on corrosion-resistant steel products, targeting imports from ten major trading partners in a decision that carries weight far beyond the steel sector.

The measures collectively cover nearly $3 billion worth of annual imports, highlighting how Washington is recalibrating industrial policy to shield domestic manufacturing from subsidized foreign competition.

Corrosion-resistant steel plays a vital role in the U.S. economy, underpinning key industries such as automotive, construction, and consumer appliances.

By tightening restrictions on foreign suppliers, the move aims to level the playing field for U.S. producers.

Still, it may also increase input costs for manufacturers that rely on imported steel.

The higher costs could ripple through supply chains, adding pressure to prices in sectors already facing tight margins.

At a macro level, the decision demonstrates how trade enforcement has evolved into an integral part of economic strategy.

While the measures could bolster U.S. steelmaking and attract more domestic investment, they risk provoking retaliatory actions abroad and complicating international supply chains.

For the broader U.S. economy, the balance between industrial protection and downstream costs will be a key factor to watch in the months ahead.

Critical Minerals

Rare Earth Push Marks Turning Point for U.S. Manufacturing, Energy, and Defense Sectors

The United States is accelerating efforts to rebuild its domestic supply of rare earth minerals, a move aimed at reducing dependence on China and strengthening critical sectors of the economy.

Rare earth elements are essential for technologies ranging from smartphones and electric vehicles to fighter jets and renewable energy systems, making them a cornerstone of both economic and national security.

Washington has committed billions of dollars in funding, loans, and price support mechanisms to jumpstart domestic mining, refining, and magnet production.

Federal agencies are backing new plants in Texas, Oklahoma, and other regions, while investing in long-term stockpiles and recycling initiatives.

These measures are designed to prevent supply shocks that have previously disrupted industries when Beijing tightened export controls.

For the U.S. economy, the rare earth strategy represents a broader shift in industrial policy.

Expanding domestic production could safeguard advanced manufacturing, create high-tech jobs, and give the U.S. more leverage in global trade negotiations.

Yet analysts caution that current projects still fall far short of meeting America’s demand, meaning reliance on imports will continue in the near term.

The rare earth build-out underscores a central challenge for U.S. policy: ensuring that foreign supply chains do not constrain rapid advances in defense, clean energy, and digital infrastructure.

How effectively these initiatives scale over the next decade will shape the trajectory of American competitiveness across multiple sectors.

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Global Supply Chains

America’s Broad Tariff Push Raises Costs at Home While Forcing Global Realignment

The United States has entered a new phase of trade realignment as sweeping tariffs on key partners take effect, marking one of the most aggressive protectionist pushes in decades.

Duties on imports from India, Mexico, and South Korea are now in force, alongside ongoing negotiations with Europe to eliminate industrial tariffs.

The changes are reverberating through global supply chains.

India, a longtime partner in pharmaceuticals, textiles, and technology services, faces 50% duties that could disrupt flows of essential goods into the U.S. Mexico, under pressure to block rerouted Chinese exports, is preparing its own set of tariffs that will reshape cross-border trade in autos, plastics, and consumer goods. 

Meanwhile, South Korean imports remain under a 15% levy, with limited prospects for relief.

For the U.S., the near-term result is rising costs for manufacturers and retailers, with risks of higher consumer prices as tariffs cascade through the economy.

At the same time, the measures are designed to accelerate domestic production and tighten North American supply chains, a shift that could redefine the country’s industrial base in the years ahead.

Economists caution that while tariffs may succeed in narrowing trade deficits, they also risk embedding structural inflation into the U.S. economy.

The challenge now is whether American industry can scale quickly enough to absorb demand without passing higher costs onto households.

Metrics to Watch

• Durable Goods Resilience
  July durable-goods orders fell 2.8%, less than the 4% drop expected. Ex-transportation, orders rose 1.1%, signaling that machinery and electronics demand is holding up even as aircraft orders tumble.
  

• Home Prices Flatten
  The Case-Shiller index showed national home prices up just 1.9% year-over-year in June, the slowest pace since 2023. Gains remain concentrated in New York and Chicago, while cities like Tampa, Denver, and San Francisco continue to see declines.
  

• Consumer Confidence Slips
  The Conference Board’s confidence index dipped to 97.4 in August from 98.7, with expectations falling below the key threshold of 80 that often signals recession risk. Views of job availability weakened for the eighth month in a row.
  

• New Home Sales Down
  Sales of new single-family homes fell 0.6% in July to an annualized 652,000 units, while inventories remained near 2007 highs. Median prices dropped 5.9% from a year earlier, underscoring affordability pressures from still-high mortgage rates.

Market Movers

🪑 Powell Opens the Door
Investors continue to digest Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, which left September rate cuts firmly on the table. His warning that tariffs are raising costs keeps inflation concerns alive.

🏠 Housing Feels the Strain
Case-Shiller data confirmed slowing appreciation, while new home sales weakened again.

Economists say high mortgage rates and sluggish wage growth are likely to keep pressure on affordability through year-end.

💳 Fed Politics Heat Up
Trump’s move to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook barely moved markets, but it spotlighted tensions around central bank independence.

Investors remain focused on whether upcoming data will give the Fed political cover for cuts.

🏭 Factory Activity Still Contracting
Richmond Fed data showed mid-Atlantic manufacturing contracting for a sixth straight month, though at a slower pace.

New orders and employment improved, hinting at stabilization, but inflationary pressures in the survey ticked higher.

🥇 Gold Holds Steady
Gold traded near $3,300-$3,400 as investors looked ahead to Friday’s PCE inflation data.

Asian demand stayed firm, with China’s July imports via Hong Kong more than doubling, reinforcing underlying support for the metal.

Market Impacts

Equities: U.S. stock futures slipped Wednesday evening as investors reacted to Nvidia’s earnings.

Despite beating top- and bottom-line estimates, the stock fell more than 3% in extended trading on concerns about data center revenue.

AMD, TSMC, and Broadcom also traded lower in sympathy.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 fell 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped nearly 0.5%, while Dow futures edged down just 0.03%.

The broader indexes had closed higher earlier in the day, with the S&P 500 at a record and the Dow gaining 0.3%.

Traders remain focused on the AI trade, with Nvidia’s guidance leaving room for upside if China export licenses are granted.

Bonds: Treasury yields were mixed as traders weighed Trump’s push to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

The 10-year yield dipped to 4.23%, while the 2-year yield fell six basis points to 3.62%. The 30-year finished at 4.91% after briefly testing 4.95%.

Investors worry that a politicized Fed could prioritize lower short-term rates, leaving long-term yields vulnerable if inflation risks resurface.

Market attention now turns to GDP revisions Thursday and the PCE inflation release Friday for confirmation of Powell’s Jackson Hole pivot.

Currencies: The dollar rebounded, with the euro slipping to $1.1634 and the yen easing to 146.62.

The greenback shook off earlier weakness tied to Trump’s Fed moves, supported by expectations of a September rate cut and resilient U.S. data.

Traders cited French political uncertainty as an additional drag on the euro, with Prime Minister Bayrou facing a September 8 confidence vote.

Markets are now pricing in an 88% chance of a quarter-point cut in September, with PCE data likely to guide the final decision.

Commodities: Gold edged down 0.1% to $3,388 per ounce as a stronger dollar and firmer Treasury yields weighed on prices, though Asian demand stayed robust ahead of Friday’s PCE report.

Oil rose as U.S. inventories fell more than expected, with Brent closing at $68.05 and WTI at $64.15.

Gasoline demand picked up ahead of the Labor Day weekend, while tariffs on Indian imports and renewed attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure added to supply concerns.

Analysts say oil remains sensitive to both geopolitical headlines and Fed rate expectations.

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Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday, Aug. 28) - Filings are forecast at 230,000, slightly down from last week’s 235,000. Any surprise jump could heighten concerns about labor market fragility.
  

• 📅 GDP Revision (Thursday, Aug. 28) - Second-quarter GDP is expected to be revised up to 3.1% from the prior 3.0%. A stronger print would reinforce resilience despite tariff headwinds.
  

• 📅 Pending Home Sales (Thursday, Aug. 28) - July sales are projected to rise 0.3% after falling 0.8% in June. A rebound would suggest some stabilization despite affordability challenges.
  

• 📅 Core PCE (Friday, Aug. 29) - The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to rise 0.3% in July, leaving annual growth at 2.9%. A hotter print could temper easing expectations.
  

• 📅 Consumer Sentiment (Friday, Aug. 29) - Final August reading is forecast at 58.6, unchanged from the preliminary report. Weak confidence remains a drag on consumer-driven growth.

Everything Else

• Chocolate prices are climbing as supply shortages bite, though 2026 outlook shows relief ahead.

• Hurricane Francine has left over 30 dead and millions without power across the Caribbean islands.

• UK retailers logged their 11th straight monthly downturn as prices rose sharply in August.

• China’s industrial profits fell again, with deflation and weak demand weighing on factories.

• U.S. new home sales slipped in July, underscoring the drag from high borrowing costs.