Rate cuts remain in play, but Thursday’s Fed nomination hearing, fresh tariff pass-throughs to shoppers, and steadier-but-fragile labor data mean positioning matters.

Here’s what to watch now.

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The Big Picture

Tourism

America’s Welcome Mat Wears Thin: Foreign Tourists Pull Back from U.S.

International tourism to the U.S. has thinned out this summer, leaving resorts, border towns, and major cities waiting for crowds that never came.

Buffalo, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles all reported fewer foreign visitors, underscoring a slowdown that could linger well beyond vacation season.

The decline isn’t just about travel preferences—it reflects deeper shifts in global sentiment.

With higher costs and rising uncertainty, many foreign travelers are choosing other destinations, leaving U.S. businesses to fill the gap with domestic visitors.

Cities Feel the Pinch

Convention centers, hotels, and restaurants are noticing the absence of international spending, and smaller towns that lean on Canadian traffic are being hit especially hard.

Tourism boards are redirecting campaigns toward U.S. residents, but replacing foreign dollars has proven tough.

Government data shows overseas arrivals down by millions compared to last year.

A Ripple Effect

Travel is one of America’s quiet economic engines, and when it slows, the impact spreads far beyond airports and hotels.

Fewer foreign visitors mean fewer dollars flowing into local economies at a time when broader growth is already fragile.

If the downturn persists, it risks becoming another drag on a U.S. economy balancing inflation, slowing jobs, and soft consumer demand.

Restoring confidence among global travelers could prove as important as any stimulus plan.

Economy

Uncertainty in Washington Casts a Shadow Over America’s Trade Future

The U.S. tariff fight is no longer just about dollars and cents—it’s about who controls the rules of global commerce.

A federal appeals court recently ruled that sweeping tariffs were beyond the reach of emergency powers, throwing Washington’s trade authority into question.

Now the issue sits at the doorstep of the Supreme Court.

Ripple Effects for the Economy

Behind the legal drama, the economic stakes are real. Tariffs have fueled billions in federal revenue, but also higher costs for businesses and consumers.

Importers face whiplash planning supply chains around rules that could be struck down or upheld with one ruling.

For small firms, the back-and-forth has been especially punishing, eroding margins and creating survival-level uncertainty.

Global Negotiations on Edge

Trading partners are watching closely. The U.S. has leaned heavily on tariffs to extract concessions from Europe, Asia, and beyond. If the Supreme Court narrows that tool, 

Washington may find its leverage weakened in future negotiations. Conversely, if the tariffs are upheld, the precedent could entrench a far more aggressive U.S. trade posture.

Bottom Line

The courtroom fight is about more than legality.

It’s about how the United States balances power between branches of government and, ultimately, how it positions itself in a global economy already reshaped by protectionism and supply chain shocks.

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Public Health

One State’s Rollback Could Send Old Diseases Traveling Across America

Florida is preparing to wipe out all state vaccine mandates, including school requirements, in a dramatic shift away from long-standing health protections.

The move reframes vaccination as a matter of personal choice, not public responsibility.

If finalized, the change would make Florida the first state to break from the national standard of school immunizations.

That step could embolden debates across the country over how much authority states should have in balancing health with freedom.

A Risk That Travels With You

Experts say the decision could accelerate falling vaccination rates, already slipping nationwide.

The U.S. is battling its worst measles outbreak since 2000, showing how quickly old threats can reemerge.

Florida’s role as a hub for tourism makes the risk even bigger.

An outbreak there doesn’t stay there—it moves through airports, cruise ports, and classrooms in every corner of the country.

The National Domino Effect

The rollback could set a precedent that other states feel pressured to follow.

That raises the risk of patchwork health protections and deeper regional divides in how the U.S. manages public safety.

Beyond health, the stakes spill into the economy. More outbreaks mean higher healthcare costs, disrupted schools, and potential damage to the nation’s travel and tourism recovery.

Metrics to Watch

• Fed Confirmation Spotlight
  Stephen Miran faces a Senate grilling today. Watch for signals on how he frames Fed independence, his inflation stance, and timing for rate cuts, with the White House pushing for a seat before the Sept. 16–17 meeting.
  
  A smooth path boosts the odds of easier policy, whereas fireworks raise uncertainty.
  
  

• Price Pass-Through Risk
  Household staples makers and big-box retailers say tariff costs are starting to flow through to shelves.
  
  Expect more list-price and promo changes into Q4 as meat, nuts, coffee, and imported hardware get pricier.
  
  That keeps services and goods inflation sticky even if demand cools.
  
  

• Labor Market Balance
  JOLTS showed July hiring holding near 3.3% with layoffs steady around 1.1%. Openings slipped to ~7.2 million.
  
  Weekly claims recently printed 229,000. The story stays low-hire, low-fire: stability today, but vulnerable if layoffs tick up or openings slide further.
  
  

• Tariff Expansion Pipeline
  Section 232 expansions now cover hundreds of steel and aluminum-heavy products at 50% and could widen to autos, copper, robotics, and more.
  
  New inclusion rounds start this month, with semiconductors and pharma in the crosshairs later this fall. Supply chains and capex plans will adjust in real time.

Market Movers

🪑 Fed Seats Become a Market Catalyst
The Miran hearing tests whether Republicans defend traditional central bank independence or back tighter White House influence.

His prepared remarks pledge independence, but past writing favored easier replacement of Fed officials.

Traders will parse for how he would vote on near-term cuts and on the balance of risks.

🛒 Tariffs Hit the Cart
Hormel, Smucker, Ace Hardware, and major retailers flagged rising costs tied to tariffs and commodities. Expect selective price hikes and fewer promotions, with value retailers benefiting from trade-down.

Margin guidance across staples and discretionary could drift as inventories reset at post-tariff costs.

💼 Jobs: Slow, Not Broken
Layoffs remain historically low while hiring cools. With openings easing and quits subdued, wage growth may soften further.

The setup keeps the Fed leaning toward a small cut if incoming data do not deteriorate, but it limits the case for an aggressive easing cycle.

🌍 Global Voices Turn Up the Volume
ECB President Christine Lagarde warned a loss of Fed independence would carry global repercussions.

The message raises the geopolitical risk premium around U.S. policy and could support volatility in rates and FX if political pressure on the Fed escalates.

🏭 Industry Winners and Losers from Tariffs
Domestic metals producers welcome the broadened 232 coverage, but capital-goods makers, autos, robotics, and utilities face higher input costs and longer lead times.

Watch for chatter about rebates, quotas, or exemptions aimed at automakers and big tech as the administration fine-tunes the program.

Market Impacts

Equities: Futures were steady overnight after a tech-led rebound lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while the Dow lagged.

Alphabet’s antitrust reprieve kept mega-cap tech bid, but weakening job openings capped broader risk appetite.

Traders now pivot to Thursday’s ADP and claims prints for confirmation that labor demand is cooling without tipping into layoffs.

After-hours action was mixed—American Eagle spiked on strong Q2 and upbeat marketing traction, while Salesforce slipped on soft Q3 revenue guidance—highlighting a market that’s rewarding clear execution and punishing even minor guide misses.

Bonds: The long end briefly tagged 5% before retreating as JOLTS showed fewer openings and growth fears supported a rally in duration.

The 10-year hovered near ~4.21% and the 30-year near ~4.89%, with the curve steepening as traders price higher odds of a September cut alongside lingering worries about Fed independence.

Into Friday’s payrolls, rate-path sensitivity remains highest at the front end; a soft jobs print likely flattens front vol while leaving long-end term premium elevated.

Currencies: The dollar slipped versus the euro and yen after softer labor-demand data reinforced the case for near-term easing.

EUR/USD pushed toward the mid-1.16s as U.S. yields fell, while USD/JPY eased with haven bids into Friday’s jobs report.

Positioning remains cautious: an undershoot on payrolls could extend dollar losses, but any upside surprise risks a quick USD squeeze given stretched cut expectations.

Commodities: Crude pulled back ahead of the weekend OPEC+ meeting, with chatter of another output hike pressuring Brent back into the high-$67s and WTI near $64.

Supply discipline versus market-share ambitions remains the key weekend swing factor.

Gold’s safe-haven bid strengthened on softer U.S. data and central-bank independence jitters, with spot extending record highs and traders eyeing $3,600 as the next technical waypoint.

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Key Indicators to Watch

📅 ADP Employment (Thu, Sept. 4, 8:15 a.m. ET)
Consensus: +75k (prior 104k). A soft print would corroborate cooling labor demand and keep a September cut in play.

📅 Initial Jobless Claims (Thu, Sept. 4, 8:30 a.m. ET)
Consensus: 230k (prior 229k). A move above the 230s would stoke concern that hiring freezes are bleeding into separations.

📅 ISM Services (Thu, Sept. 4, 10:00 a.m. ET)
Consensus: 50.8. Services have carried GDP resilience; a sub-50 surprise would challenge the soft-landing narrative.

📅 Senate Banking: Miran Hearing (Thu, Sept. 4, 10:00 a.m. ET)
Watch for signals on Fed independence, policy bias, and any timeline hints that could affect the September vote calculus.

📅 U.S. Employment Report (Fri, Sept. 5, 8:30 a.m. ET)
Consensus: +75k payrolls; jobless rate 4.3%; wages +0.3% m/m (+3.8% y/y). A trifecta of soft jobs/steady wages/higher unemployment would cement cut odds; hotter wages could complicate the path.

Everything Else

• U.S. job openings fell to their lowest level since the pandemic, underscoring weakening labor demand.

• Euro zone inflation held steady in August at 2.2%, keeping pressure on the ECB ahead of its next meeting.

• The Fed’s preferred PCE index showed July prices rising 2.6% year over year, with core inflation climbing to 2.9%.

• Some Fed officials voiced concern over job softness, hinting that rate cuts may be needed sooner rather than later.

• Weak aircraft bookings dragged U.S. factory orders down in July, though core business demand showed resilience.