- Macro Notes
- Posts
- Humanoid Robot Stocks are a Runaway Hit
Humanoid Robot Stocks are a Runaway Hit

Humanoid robots are surging into 2025 with a $110 billion market cap that underscores their transformative potential.
These AI-driven, human-like machines are reshaping industries, from manufacturing to delivery. Goldman Sachs projects that the humanoid market will reach $38 billion by 2035, driven by labor shortages and technological advancements.
The Humanoid Surge Gains Momentum
Humanoid robots, bipedal machines powered by sophisticated AI, are redefining automation.
Unlike traditional robotic arms, they excel at dynamic tasks, such as assembling electronics or navigating delivery routes. Analysts estimate that the humanoid market will grow to $13 billion by 2029, a 45% CAGR from $2 billion in 2024. Several catalysts are driving this rapid ascent:
AI Breakthroughs: Advanced models, like Google’s Gemini Robotics, enable robots to adapt to tasks in real-time, enhancing efficiency.
Labor Shortages: U.S. manufacturing has lost 500,000 workers since 2020 despite recent pushes for on-shoring, while China’s aging workforce necessitates automation.
Policy Catalysts: China’s $10 billion robotics investment and U.S. tariffs on rare-earth metals foster domestic innovation.
Major firms are ramping up pilots, with 5,000-unit deployments underway, with many touting a “robot revolution” gaining steam.
Subsectors with hefty humanoid robot demand include industrial robots for factories, service robots for hospitality and healthcare, and delivery platforms supporting rapid, 24/7 operations.

Opportunities and Pressures
Companies developing humanoid robots with robust operations are seeing significant gains. Stocks of fundamentally strong (and diversified) players are rising as investors bet on their dominance in manufacturing and logistics.
These firms, with wide-ranging revenue from software and hardware, mitigate economic headwinds. Likewise, component suppliers, including semiconductor and sensor producers, report revenue boosts from increasing bot demand.
Downstream, traditional industries face challenges. Manufacturers and logistics firms lacking robot technology grapple with 10% labor cost increases due to worker shortages. Retail and hospitality could lose 5% market share to competitors embracing humanoids.
Overleveraged startups reliant on unproven prototypes risk collapse if funding falters, echoing the dot-com bust. That’s why underlying operational strength, i.e., consistent revenue and financial discipline, is essential.

Why Now?
Humanoid robots mark a structural shift in automation. McKinsey envisions 300 million units by 2050, contributing $1.7 trillion to global markets. With U.S. manufacturing demand up in 2025 as on-shore appetite increases, these stocks offer stability compared to AI software ventures.

The Main Takeaway
Humanoid robot stocks are a compelling entry into the next tech frontier, but caution is warranted.
❌ Don’t invest in speculative startups lacking revenue or financial stability—market volatility could devastate them.
✅ Diversify with ETFs and target firms with diversified operations and sustainable finances.
✅ Prioritize companies with clear deployment strategies for long-term success.

Top Picks to Power the Bot Boom
ROBO Global Robotics & Automation ETF (NYSEARCA: ROBO) Expense ratio: 0.95%, or $95 on a $10,000 investment. ROBO tracks robotics firms with strong operational growth including Symbotic and Rockwell Automation, as well as medical device darling Intuitive Surgical and a range of overseas innovators. Flat on the year, ROBO is a diversified play to avoid single-stock pitfalls. |
Richtech Robotics (NASDAQ: RR)
|
Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN)
|
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)
|

That’s it for today’s edition—thanks for reading! Reply to this email with any feedback or let me know which macro trends or markets you’d like me to cover next.
Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Macro Notes