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The Big Picture

Apparel

Clothing Imports From China Hit Multi-Decade Low as Retailers Pivot 

U.S. apparel brands and retailers are accelerating their shift away from Chinese suppliers as tariffs on imported clothing reach historic levels.

The shift has driven American clothing imports from China to their lowest point in over two decades, according to new data from the U.S. International Trade Commission.

China has historically led U.S. apparel sourcing, but rising tariffs, which can reach up to 145%, are pushing companies to diversify their supply chains to Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Latin America.

Retailers have ramped up orders from countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and India, with factory audit data indicating a sharp increase in sourcing from these regions.

Demand for inspections and quality checks in Southeast Asia increased by 29% year-over-year, marking a structural shift in procurement strategies.

Mexico has also gained momentum, with U.S. apparel imports from the country rising by double digits.

The proximity and trade advantages of USMCA continue to make Mexico a viable alternative for time-sensitive categories.

While some short-term stocking occurred earlier this year ahead of policy changes, industry feedback suggests the sourcing realignment is part of a broader strategy to reduce China exposure.

Analysts note that the shift began before this year’s tariff spike but has since accelerated under heightened trade friction.

Retailers now face a new challenge: managing global supply chains as temporary tariff exemptions for non-China countries near expiration, just as holiday season procurement ramps up.

Commodities

U.S. Moves to Reclaim Rare Earth Supply With Major Domestic Investment 

The U.S. is taking aggressive steps to rebuild its domestic rare earth supply chain, backing a $400 million preferred equity investment into MP Materials to expand its magnet manufacturing and processing capacity.

This move marks one of the most direct industrial policy efforts yet to secure control over critical mineral inputs used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced defense systems.

MP Materials operates the only active rare earth mine in the country at Mountain Pass, California.

With this new funding, the company will build a second magnet manufacturing facility capable of producing 10,000 metric tons annually, a level that will support both U.S. defense and commercial sectors.

The plant is expected to begin commissioning by 2028.

Rare earths such as neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), used in permanent magnets, have long been a pressure point in global trade.

As of 2023, roughly 70% of U.S. imports originated from China. To stabilize domestic pricing, the U.S. government will guarantee a price floor of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products sold or stockpiled over a 10-year window.

The Pentagon will also purchase 100% of the output from the new facility during that period.

Separately, a $150 million loan is to follow within 30 days to expand rare earth separation capabilities at Mountain Pass.

This initiative positions the U.S. to reduce its reliance on imports while building long-term resilience in strategic materials.

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Digital Assets

Bitcoin Sets New High as U.S. Institutional Adoption Deepens 

Bitcoin set a new all-time high on Wednesday, topping $112,000 before the market closed, as institutional buying and corporate treasury allocations continued to expand.

The rally underscores the asset’s growing role in U.S. financial markets, moving beyond speculative trading and deeper into strategic capital positioning.

Second-quarter data shows that bitcoin purchases by public companies outpaced inflows into ETFs, suggesting a shift toward long-term holding strategies among U.S. firms.

Major corporations are using bitcoin as a balance-sheet hedge, while regulated funds give traditional investors direct exposure through familiar structures.

Legislative developments are adding momentum.

Multiple bills advancing in Congress aim to define the regulatory perimeter for digital assets, providing more straightforward guidelines on taxation, custody, and classification.

This ongoing policy work is setting the stage for broader adoption by financial institutions and advisors.

Bitcoin’s rise now mirrors macro positioning as much as crypto enthusiasm.

While still volatile, its presence in corporate treasuries and regulated ETFs marks a shift from fringe asset to mainstream store of value.

The record price reflects not only speculative flows but also a structural shift in how U.S. investors view digital assets within an evolving regulatory landscape.

Metrics to Watch

• Additional Tariffs: Trump threatened to tack on an additional 10% tariff on nations align with BRICS’ (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) geopolitical policies. 

• Deficit Breakout: The U.S. deficit is currently on pace to exceed 6% of national GDP, or 60% higher than the average over the past 50 years.   

• Post-4th Trends: Stocks tend to end the week following July 4th on a high note, posting positive returns 57.5% of the time and averaging a 0.47% gain, so plenty of time to rebound following today’s action.    

• Earnings Kickoff: Delta’s report on Thursday signals the next wave of earnings, which will now fully account for the post-tariff period - expect volatility and plenty of it!

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Market Movers

⛏️Pentagon Backs Rare Earth Revival: The Defense Department's $400 million preferred stock investment in MP Materials (NYSE: MP) propelled shares up nearly 50% and benefits both parties with a $150 million Pentagon loan and a guaranteed minimum price for NdPr oxide, positioning MP to counter China’s 70% dominance in U.S. rare earth imports. 

As the owner of the only operational U.S. rare earth mine at Mountain Pass, MP Materials will use the funds to expand processing and build a second magnet manufacturing facility, bolstering supply chains critical for military systems like the F-35 warplane. 

✈️ Delta Soars on Strong Summer Outlook: Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) reinstated its 2025 profit outlook, projecting adjusted earnings of $5.25 to $6.25 per share, driving a 12% share price surge. 

Strong summer travel demand, premium seat sales, and a 10% revenue increase from its American Express partnership offset earlier booking hesitancy, with second-quarter adjusted revenue reaching $15.51 billion. 

💉 Trump’s Tariff Threat Looms Over Pharmaceuticals: President Trump’s pledge to impose up to 200% tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, with a one-to-one-and-a-half-year grace period, introduces uncertainty for drugmakers like Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ). 

Aimed at spurring U.S. manufacturing, the policy could raise costs and disrupt supply chains, though pharmaceutical stocks remained stable as details are pending until month’s end. 

🛍️ Prime Day Powers Retail Despite Tariff Clouds: Amazon’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) Prime Day kicked off with a 9.9% year-over-year surge in U.S. online sales to $7.9 billion, outpacing last year’s post-Thanksgiving “Digital Monday” sales.

Retailers’ extended sales events reflect recent boosts to consumer spending and improving credit utilization, though third-party sellers raising prices due to tariffs could squeeze margins.

Market Impacts

With markets increasingly running hot amid high-flying tech stocks and cryptocurrency developments, investors are still funneling billions into the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: SGOV), drawn to its low volatility and cash-like stability. 

SGOV bagged the week’s highest ETF capital inflow, with traders buying 11,300,000 new shares for a 2.3% week-over-week rise. 

Managing over $50 billion in assets, SGOV offers a solid 4.6% TTM yield through short-maturity U.S. Treasury bills, shielding investors from the interest rate swings that have battered long-bond funds like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), down nearly 50% over five years. 

As the Fed holds rates steady amid sticky inflation and anticipated downstream tariff effects, SGOV’s “T-bill-and-chill” strategy delivers steady income without exposure to equity or long-bond volatility, making it a timely haven for cautious capital. 

Note, of course, that you should still weigh the opportunity cost of missing higher-risk, higher-reward assets in an increasingly bullish market. 

Stats

• Expense Ratio: 0.09% ($9 per $10,000 invested)

• SEC Yield: 4.18%

• Total Assets: $50.9 billion

• YTD Performance: 2.21% with dividend

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Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 Monthly Federal Budget – July 11th: The first budget post-OBBBA, msot expect a modest decline before ICE and defense spending start taking off.

• 📅 Consumer Price Index (June)  – July 15th: Will we get rate cuts in July? Next Tuesday’s inflation report will likely tell us which way the winds are blowing. 

• 📅 Fed President Speeches (Various) – July 15th: Post-CPI speeches from Susan Collins and Lorie Logan will give us an idea of where Powell’s head is at when it comes to dropping rates (or not).

Everything Else

• Candy company Ferrero plans to buy out WK Kellogg for a whopping $3.1B - watch for Nutella-flavored cereal on the horizon.

• Trump’s immigration crackdown is having knock-on effects across Amazon’s warehousing staff. 

• Moving in parallel: Bitcoin marked new highs as Nvidia rose, further cementing the asset classes’ correlative effects. 

• This week’s Fed minutes release points to improved rate-drop prospects. 

• TikTok’s standalone app may be the opening move for a complete spin-off (but to whom is the longstanding and much-anticipated question).