A U.S.–EU trade breakthrough is rewriting inflation forecasts, a Q2 GDP rebound could upend Fed expectations, and fresh signs of consumer strength are challenging the recession narrative.

With central banks and global markets recalibrating in real time, here’s what traders are watching today.

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The Big Picture

Oil

U.S. Oil Exports Get a Massive Boost as EU Commits Billions Under New Tariff Framework 

The American energy sector is entering a new chapter as oil prices climb on the back of a sweeping U.S.-EU trade agreement.

The deal restructures tariffs on both sides while triggering a massive shift in energy purchasing behavior that puts U.S. oil and gas producers in a stronger global position.

Crude futures responded swiftly.

Benchmark West Texas Intermediate rose, and global Brent crude also climbed, reflecting expectations of sustained European demand for American energy exports.

With zero-tariff access now extended to select U.S. energy products and a multi-year investment pledge from Europe, markets are factoring in a more durable demand floor.

For American energy exporters, the implications are profound. The framework creates new volume certainty across liquefied natural gas, crude oil, and possibly nuclear fuel.

Key producers in the Gulf Coast and shale basins now have added visibility into demand cycles that were previously volatile due to geopolitical friction and regulatory bottlenecks.

Investors watching U.S. oil and gas equities may see this deal as a potential stabilizer for margins and export capacity.

Midstream operators and terminal infrastructure players also stand to benefit from expanded flow-through and international volume commitments.

On the global trade side, the new 15 percent tariff the U.S. will apply to a range of European imports avoids a previously looming 30 percent rate.

While the move is not without friction for non-energy sectors, the structural impact on U.S. energy positioning is more decisive with exposure to export growth from key allied markets.

Energy

America’s Mineral Push Just Got Real as Federal Agencies Target Billions in Hidden Reserves 

The United States is taking a direct approach to reducing its reliance on imported minerals by tapping an overlooked source: domestic mine waste.

A new federal directive now unlocks funding and support for the extraction of valuable critical minerals from both active and abandoned sites.

This includes tailings, coal refuse, and more than 100 uranium mines across the western U.S. that have long been treated as environmental liabilities.

Government scientists say these sites hold significant volumes of materials used in defense systems, batteries, and renewable energy manufacturing.

Rare earth elements have already been detected in coal waste across Appalachia and Illinois. In Utah, tellurium has been found in copper tailings.

Germanium and zinc are present in former lead and silver mines in Oklahoma and Idaho, offering immediate opportunities to restart domestic supply chains.

For U.S. manufacturers and national security agencies, the shift opens up new resource stability.

Private firms will gain access to fresh geological data and inventories as part of the government’s rollout.

By reclaiming waste rather than opening new mines, the program aims to reduce regulatory barriers, cut foreign dependence, and increase industrial flexibility.

Rather than allowing valuable materials to sit unused, the U.S. is converting mineral waste into a valuable economic resource.

The effort marks a broader push to strengthen domestic capacity in areas vital to modern manufacturing, with direct implications for energy, technology, and defense sectors.

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Trade

U.S. Cattle Supply Gap Widens as Australia Export Protocol Disappears 

The United States has quietly revoked protocols for importing live Australian cattle, even as U.S. beef inventories face historic lows and domestic prices soar.

While publicly criticizing Australia’s beef import restrictions, the U.S. Department of Agriculture quietly removed the live cattle import protocol from its website, catching Australian trade officials off guard.

This development comes as demand from U.S. feedlots is climbing. American feeder cattle now cost about A$2,100 more per head than their Australian counterparts.

The economics support imports, especially with over one million Mexican cattle currently suspended due to biosecurity concerns.

Despite this, U.S. officials cited doubts over Australia's bovine tuberculosis status, even though Australia has been internationally certified TB-free since 1997.

For the U.S., this is more than a regulatory change.

The domestic herd is at generational lows, and consumer demand remains high. Feedlot operators have few levers left to pull.

With Mexican cattle sidelined and Australian cattle effectively blocked, the supply gap is likely to widen further heading into the final quarter of the year.

Whether driven by trade posturing or unresolved scientific disputes, the timing could not be more critical for U.S. beef producers and the agricultural sector.

Metrics to Watch

• Jobless Claims Decline Again: Initial claims fell to 217,000 for the week ending July 19, the lowest level in five weeks and well below expectations.
  
  The drop suggests layoffs remain muted, even as companies express caution about hiring amid trade policy uncertainty.
  
  

• Fed Credibility Under Pressure: President Trump’s repeated attacks on Chair Powell and calls for a 3-point rate cut are spooking bond markets.
  
  The 10-year term premium has climbed to 0.84%, a sign investors want more compensation to hold long-term debt in an increasingly politicized rate environment.
  
  

• ECB Hits Pause on Cuts: The European Central Bank left rates unchanged at 2%, citing tariff uncertainty and a still-fragile inflation outlook.
  
  Officials say more cuts may be forthcoming, but for now, markets are in a “wait-and-watch” mode as the U.S. trade agenda unfolds.
  
  

• Speculation Surges in Risk Assets: Meme stocks, crypto, and loss-making companies are ripping higher again. Opendoor is up 377% in a month, and crypto-linked firms are chasing Bitcoin gains.
  
  The return of froth is sparking bubble concerns, especially as breadth widens and the equity risk premium compresses.

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Market Movers

🤝U.S. and EU Reach Historic Tariff Deal: Markets cheered news that the U.S. and EU struck a significant trade agreement, locking in a 15% baseline tariff across a wide range of goods.

The deal, which includes $750 billion in EU energy purchases and $600 billion in U.S. investment, averts a looming trade war and brings clarity to global supply chains.

While the 15% level is still inflationary, it eliminates worst-case fears of 30% tariffs and resets expectations for other countries still negotiating.

📉Trump vs. Powell Sparks Volatility: The president’s efforts to publicly pressure the Fed into aggressive rate cuts are rattling bond investors and raising long-term borrowing costs.

Despite Trump’s desire for cheaper mortgages, his attacks on central bank independence are pushing up Treasury yields and widening term premiums, the exact opposite of his intended outcome.

Markets now see a 60% chance of a September cut, but political drama could backfire.

🧨 Warning Signs in the Labor Market: While jobless claims are down, broader hiring trends tell a different story.

Private-sector job growth has hit an eight-month low, and employers are delaying new headcount decisions amid uncertainty related to tariffs.

Wage growth is cooling, and continuing claims have crept up, a soft signal that the job market may be entering a slow bleed, not a complete drop-off.

📈 Speculation and Sentiment Diverge: The market is surging, but not everyone’s convinced. The spread between the S&P 500’s earnings yield and the 10-year Treasury yield has nearly vanished, raising red flags about valuation.

Meanwhile, meme stocks like Krispy Kreme and GoPro are surging despite weak fundamentals, echoing the 2021 speculative run-up.

Analysts warn that if the economy stumbles, sentiment could shift fast.

🧓 Depopulation Debate Gains Steam: As fertility rates fall globally, economists are sounding the alarm on long-term growth risks.

A new book, After the Spike, argues that declining population is a systemic threat, not just a demographic trend.

The implications could include slower innovation, shrinking workforces, and lower aggregate demand, all of which may compound over decades unless governments take action.

Market Impacts

Equities: Markets continue to power ahead, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching fresh record highs last week and futures pointing higher to start this one.

A wave of stronger-than-expected earnings, progress on trade deals with Japan and the EU, and AI-fueled optimism are helping stocks shrug off tariff concerns, at least for now. 

More than 150 S&P 500 companies are expected to report their earnings this week, including Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple, which could set the tone for the month of August.

Investors are also closely watching forward guidance, particularly regarding AI infrastructure, labor costs, and trade impacts.

Bonds: Treasury yields ended last week slightly lower, with the 10-year at 4.38% and the 2-year hovering near 3.92%.

A strong run of U.S. economic data and easing trade tensions helped support risk appetite but also tempered expectations for near-term Fed cuts. 

Traders will be watching this week’s FOMC meeting and Friday’s jobs report for fresh clues.

With inflation stickier than hoped and Trump applying pressure on Powell for rate cuts, volatility across the curve may rise if the Fed strikes a hawkish tone.

Currencies: The dollar bounced late last week after touching a one-month low, buoyed by robust U.S. data and some easing of political pressure on the Fed.

The yen weakened after Tokyo's inflation data missed forecasts and Japan’s ruling coalition suffered a setback in the upper house elections. 

The euro remained firm on optimism from the ECB and progress in EU-U.S. trade talks.

Markets expect both the Fed and BOJ to hold rates steady this week, but central bank guidance could trigger more movement, particularly if Powell signals a slower path to cuts.

Commodities: Gold slipped below $3,340/oz last week as appetite for riskier assets rose on hopes for a U.S.–EU trade deal.

With the dollar firming and Fed expectations shifting, bullion may stay rangebound unless geopolitical risks or data surprises revive safe-haven demand.

Oil also declined, with Brent settling at $68.44 and WTI at $65.16. 

Weak Chinese data and higher U.S. inventories weighed on prices, although hopes for stronger global growth following the deal kept losses in check.

Traders are also monitoring OPEC+ discussions about potentially increasing output in August.

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Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 Consumer Confidence – Tuesday, July 29:
  July’s confidence reading is expected to rise to 96.0. With inflation still elevated and the Fed under political pressure, this report will reveal whether households are tuning out the drama or tightening their belts.
  

• 📅 Q2 GDP Estimate – Wednesday, July 30:
  Economists forecast 2.3% annualized growth in Q2, a sharp rebound from Q1’s contraction. A strong print would reinforce the soft landing narrative and complicate the case for near-term Fed cuts.
  

• 📅 PCE Inflation Report – Thursday, July 31:
  The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is projected to tick higher in June, with core PCE steady at 2.7% YoY. Any upside surprise could sink hopes of a September rate cut.
  

• 📅 July Jobs Report – Friday, August 1:
  The labor market remains the swing factor for Fed policy. A modest gain of 102,000 jobs is expected, with unemployment rising slightly to 4.2%. Watch for signs of wage pressure and sectoral weakness.

Everything Else

• Business equipment spending appears to have slowed sharply in Q2, raising fresh concerns about the momentum of capital investment.

• The European Central Bank held rates steady as tariffs continue to cloud the outlook, with policymakers signaling caution ahead.

• Trump’s aluminum tariffs are unintentionally fueling a green recycling boom as firms scramble to adapt.

• China’s industrial profits fell again in June, highlighting a persistent strain across the country’s manufacturing sector.

• Strong Q2 results from Alphabet helped reinforce the AI trade, with Google’s ad business once again leading the charge.