Jobs Popped but the Fed Is Still Squinting, So Lean Into Resilience

Shift4 Payments (NYSE: FOUR)

You get a processor wired into where the services economy actually swipes: hotels, restaurants, stadiums, entertainment venues. If leisure and hospitality keep hiring and consumers still go out, authorization volumes rise and every tap and tip helps the P&L.

Shift4 has been stacking upshare in casinos and sports, rolling out SkyTab for small merchants, and expanding into travel gateways, which lifts take and mixes in higher value software. 

The balance sheet is manageable for a growth name and the unit economics improve as install density increases. If the Fed pauses in December, no problem. If the Fed cuts, cross-border and discretionary categories usually perk up, also fine.

Risks to watch are a sudden travel slowdown or sharper price competition, but the mix shift toward integrated payments and software gives you more than one way to compound.

Korn Ferry (NYSE: KFY)

Hiring is uneven, not dead, and this is where a diversified talent platform shines. Korn Ferry is not only executive search. It runs large recruiting process outsourcing programs, assessment, and advisory tied to org design and pay.

When companies freeze adds, advisory still moves; when hiring resumes in fits and starts, RPO turns on like a spigot. 

That flexibility, plus a clean balance sheet and variable comp, helps protect margins when the cycle squiggles. If September’s upside in jobs points to stabilization, you benefit as requisitions reopen and fee hours climb. If the Fed stays patient and sentiment improves, pipelines can rebuild into spring.

Main risks are longer decision cycles and budget gatekeeping, but a broad client base across sectors and a growing annuity from subscriptions reduce the all-or-nothing feel you get with pure staffing names.

Choice Hotels (NYSE: CHH)

Asset-light rooms in a services-led economy. Choice is a franchisor with a domestic skew and a wide moat in midscale and upper-midscale, where value matters if paychecks feel tight.

A steady labor market and still-solid consumer activity support occupancy and rate, while franchise fees fall to the bottom line without capex sprawl. You also get a pipeline of conversions as independent hotels seek brand traffic and revenue management.

If the Fed cuts later, lower borrowing costs help franchisees invest in refreshes and new flags. If the Fed pauses, domestic drive-to demand still carries you.

Watch RevPAR trends and any franchisee pushback on fees, but the structure gives you durable free cash flow, buyback flexibility, and less FX noise than the big global chains.

First Watch Restaurant Group (NASDAQ: FWRG)

Breakfast is a habit, not a splurge, and that is a good lane when the macro feels fuzzy. First Watch runs daylight hours only, which simplifies labor and improves table turns. Same-store sales ride traffic plus menu innovation, and new units keep marching in growth markets where population and brunch culture intersect.

A resilient services backdrop supports weekend waits, and a small easing in food costs can pad shop-level margins or fund sharp value offers. 

You avoid dinner-daypart competition and you avoid heavy international translation. If December brings a cut, consumer confidence usually helps occasions; if the Fed waits, affordable check sizes and loyalty still drive frequency.

Risks are egg and wage inflation and execution on new openings, but the model’s simplicity and runway make the compounding story clear.