Hello and welcome to Macro Notes, your go-to source for the latest macroeconomic trends, market-moving news, and key indicators to watch. We cut through the noise to bring you actionable insights in just a few minutes.

Today we’ll look into free inflight Wi-Fi as a new airline loyalty tool, growing political pressure on universities, and trade probes into critical supply chains.

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*SGS Canada Inc. is responsible for the Technical Report. The Qualified Persons (“QPs”), as defined under NI 43-101, are Yann Camus, P.Eng., and Olivier Vadnais-Leblanc, P.Geo.

🌍 The Big Picture

Aviation

Free Inflight Wi-Fi Becomes Loyalty Battleground for U.S. Airlines

U.S. airlines are accelerating efforts to offer free inflight Wi-Fi, turning connectivity into a competitive loyalty tool across the industry. American Airlines announced it will begin providing no-cost Wi-Fi access to members of its AAdvantage program in early 2026, joining a growing list of carriers moving toward complimentary service.

Delta Air Lines and JetBlue Airways have already launched free inflight internet for loyalty members, while United Airlines continues outfitting aircraft with SpaceX’s Starlink satellite system.

Infrastructure upgrades remain central to the rollout. American Airlines confirmed it will install high-speed internet on 500 regional jets by the end of next year. Other carriers, including United, have detailed multiyear timelines for full fleet integration. Southwest Airlines has not announced similar plans, making it a notable holdout in the trend.

The shift marks a broader evolution in loyalty program strategy. Airlines are leveraging connectivity as a core perk, replacing older incentives like free baggage or early boarding. Loyalty members increasingly expect value beyond mileage points, especially as subscription-based travel services and high-speed satellite networks reshape in-cabin experiences.

As connectivity moves from premium to baseline, inflight internet may follow the trajectory of seatback entertainment and onboard power — once exclusive, now expected. Airlines now face pressure to keep pace without eroding profitability in a high-cost operating environment.

Academic

Political Scrutiny of Higher Education Deepens with $2B Federal Action

A growing standoff between federal agencies and elite universities reached new levels this week after the U.S. Department of Education froze over $2 billion in federal grants and contracts to Harvard University. The action followed Harvard's formal rejection of a set of policy demands from the Trump administration related to campus governance, hiring, and academic practices.

The White House had issued Harvard a ten-point directive that included faculty auditing, admissions adjustments, and new student disciplinary guidelines. Harvard declined the conditions, citing constitutional protections for institutional independence and free speech.

This development marks the latest in a series of federal interventions targeting top-tier academic institutions. Columbia University agreed to implement several federal requirements last month after withdrawing $400 million in funding. Officials have also reviewed other institutions, raising questions about the scope and precedent of politically driven funding decisions.

The administration's proposed changes center on combating antisemitism, including broader reforms tied to "intellectual conditions" and alignment with national values. Critics within academia view the approach as government overreach; supporters argue the actions aim to ensure accountability on sensitive issues.

Universities rely heavily on federal funding for research and development. With an endowment exceeding $50 billion, Harvard may weather the short-term freeze, but other institutions with less financial flexibility could face operational consequences.

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*SGS Canada Inc. is responsible for the Technical Report. The Qualified Persons (“QPs”), as defined under NI 43-101, are Yann Camus, P.Eng., and Olivier Vadnais-Leblanc, P.Geo.

Trade Policy

U.S. Trade Investigations Target Critical Supply Chains in Healthcare and Tech

The U.S. government has opened investigations into pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports, signaling a potential expansion of tariffs tied to national security priorities. Notices published in the Federal Register outline a 21-day public comment period and cite authority under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

These proposed tariffs would follow a wave of levies already placed on steel, autos, and other sectors. Current import duties exclude pharmaceuticals and chips, but the administration has indicated both categories are under active review.

Healthcare industry leaders raised concerns about the impact on drug affordability and supply availability. Generic drug manufacturers operating on narrow margins warned that new tariffs could accelerate market exits and worsen shortages. Brand-name producers have broader pricing power but may still pass costs to healthcare systems.

In the semiconductor sector, import restrictions would affect U.S. companies that rely heavily on chips produced in Taiwan and other regions. While the CHIPS Act sought to increase domestic production, overseas supply chains still meet most of the demand for U.S. chips.

Industry groups representing both sectors argue that tariffs could discourage foreign investment and disrupt manufacturing timelines. The investigations will evaluate raw materials, active ingredients, and finished products.

📊 Metrics to Watch

• Banking Earnings: Even as bulge bracket banks report near-record earnings stats, execs warn of volatility and uncertainty ahead.

• Inflation Outlook: The Fed’s recent Survey of Consumer Expectations indicates that Americans see inflation as high as 3.6% next year.

• Market Performance: The same report showed that just one-third of Americans think the stock market will be higher than today in April 2026.

• Auto Tariffs: Trump said he’ll consider a pause on the current 25% tariff on imported vehicles and planned 25% tariff on parts imports.

🚀 Market Movers

• 🛍️ Consumer Defensive Sector: American consumers are flocking to household staples (think bulk items like coffee, toilet paper, and canned veggies), which could put wind in the sails of major consumer defensive stocks like Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Costco (NASDAQ:COST). Sales volume increased by as much as 29% for some common household goods in the days following tariff announcements.

• 🤖 “Made in America” Manufacturing: Nvidia’s $500 billion American AI infrastructure investment may be the first in a wave of renewed U.S. manufacturing efforts. A primary goal of Trump’s tariffs, advances in robotics and logistics pave the way for next-gen production facilities. However, initial capital expenditure outlay remains problematic for mid-cap and smaller firms that want to follow suit as the same tariffs force cost-cutting initiatives.

• 💊 Pharma Tariffs: The U.S. Commerce Department kicked off an investigation to “determine the effects on the national security of imports of pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients.” Trump’s tariff executive orders fall under the banner of The International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a national security initiative, so expect this action to be an opening move for trade taxes across the pharma sector

• 🏦 Bank Bonds: JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), and other banking powerhouses increased analyst optimism this week by issuing billions in new corporate bonds. Yield spreads on the investment-grade bonds and U.S. Treasury’s fell, a sign of healthy demand in fixed-income markets and an improved economic outlook across the institutional investor classes

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⚡ Market Impacts

• 📈 Equities: Tech stocks saw renewed optimism after Trump issued sweeping tariff exemptions on consumer electronics like laptops, tablets, and phones. Production-level items like integrated circuits, semiconductor storage devices, and chipmaking machines were also exempted. However, Trump tamped the enthusiasm via social media, saying that no corporate or state entity is “off the hook.”

• 💵 Bonds: Bond markets rebounded early this week, sparking relief as many saw turbulence in the fixed-income sector as a leading indicator of significant economic pain to come. U.S. Treasury selloffs slowed, and 10-year yields dropped from their highest point since 2006. Bond prices across all maturities rose, though some of the buying spree may have been sparked solely by the rock-bottom bond pricing of the preceding week rather than improved institutional investor outlooks.

• 💱 Currencies: The 21st annual Central Banking survey, released this week, pointed to a unique statistic: more than half of the global central banks polled said that they dabbled in foreign exchange markets by buying and selling currencies over the past year. This means that central banks may be propping up local currencies or acting to influence other nations’ cash.

• 🌽 Commodities: China’s halting of specific rare earth minerals as tariff retaliation could have significant knock-on effects across global production chains and markets. Restricted commodities include heavy metals and rare earth magnets, key to aerospace, battery, automotive, robotics, and other high-tech manufacturing sectors. These exports, though major drivers of U.S. production, are a small portion of China’s overall portfolio - meaning cutting off the supply disproportionately harms the U.S.

🗓️ Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 U.S. Retail Sales (March) – April 16th: Increased consumer staple sales may put some short-lived wind in this report’s sales before tariff trickledown pricing increases.

• 📅 Initial Jobless Claims – April 17th: A stronger-than-expected job market throughout March shows signs of slowing.

• 📅 Housing Starts – April 17th: Analysts expect a slowdown as housing supply exceeds demand.

🧩 Everything Else

• These tech titans stand accused of corporate tax avoidance, which could increase regulatory scrutiny. 

• A group of businesses are banding together to challenge Trump’s tariffs in court. 

• Japan is the one of the first major trading partners to begin official trade talks this week and will be a barometer for Trump’s willingness to negotiate moving forward. 

• Propane prices dropped after China, America’s second-largest propane buyer, issued reciprocal energy tariffs. 

• Chinese goods shipment volume dropped, with ports handling 10% less week-over-week as tariffs began taking effect.