Hello and welcome to Macro Notes, your go-to source for the latest macroeconomic trends, market-moving news, and key indicators to watch. We cut through the noise to bring you actionable insights in just a few minutes.

Uranium Demand (Sponsored)

On Behalf of Azincourt Energy Corp

Why Uranium’s Next Cycle Could Be Bigger Than 2007

With AI pushing power demand through the roof, nuclear is the only option.

Uranium demand is set to double. One junior may benefit most.

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*Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular Issuer from one referenced date to another represent an arbitrarily chosen time period and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that Issuer and are of no predictive value. Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for YOUR further investigation; they are NOT stock recommendations or constitute an offer or sale of the referenced securities.

🌍 The Big Picture

Economics

Tariff Rush Triggers First U.S. GDP Contraction Since 2021

The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter, marking the end of a three-year streak of expansion. A rush of imported goods brought in early to dodge incoming tariffs overwhelmed domestic output and tipped gross domestic product into contraction.

This wasn’t a classic slowdown. Investment and consumption showed underlying strength, but the trade imbalance, amplified by a race to front-load supply chains, pushed the headline number negative. Businesses quickly secured inventory before higher duties hit, flooding the U.S. with foreign goods.

That import wave didn’t reflect weaker demand—it reflected panic. Companies are hedging against policy uncertainty, while households are rethinking nonessential spending in light of rising costs. The immediate pressure showed up in consumer confidence levels and cautious corporate forecasts.

Airlines, which are sensitive to how people feel about spending, have stopped giving financial forecasts. They cite people's reluctance to travel and uncertainty about costs. Broader sectors face similar uncertainty, especially where foreign components play a key role.

This quarter’s data reflect a mismatch between economic momentum and headline performance. But if trade policy continues to deliver unpredictable shocks, that gap may close downward.

Markets are watching for policy signals, but the business sector is already bracing for longer-term volatility.

Global Trade

U.S. Secures Preferential Access to Ukrainian Minerals in New Deal

The U.S. has signed a long-anticipated economic agreement with Ukraine, securing access to critical minerals in exchange for investment commitments tied to postwar reconstruction. The deal is structured to give American industry priority in sourcing materials like rare earths, oil, gas, and metals—resources central to high-tech manufacturing and national defense.

Months of tense negotiations followed years of deepening involvement in Ukraine's defense, but the agreement now offers Washington a foothold in long-term resource development. Kyiv retains control over what and where to extract, but the U.S. will be a favored partner in monetizing the output.

The deal arrives at a moment when Western policymakers are rethinking their reliance on adversarial supply chains. With tensions high across multiple fronts—energy, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals—the Ukraine pact adds a new node in Washington's effort to secure strategic autonomy.

While the agreement carries geopolitical symbolism, it's also about securing raw material pipelines that could reshape industrial planning for years. The U.S. has lagged in rare earth processing and mineral refinement; this pact could give it an upstream advantage.

The broader message is clear: future resource access may depend not just on economics, but also on diplomacy and alliances. In that framework, Ukraine now stands closer to Washington, not just as an aid recipient but as a resource partner.

Energy Sector Watch (Sponsored)

On Behalf of Azincourt Energy Corp

The Next Big Name in Uranium?

The uranium bull market is heating up.

Uranium has doubled since 2020.

Saskatchewan’s uranium sales just hit $2.6 billion, up 62% year-over-year.

Cameco says the long-term outlook has never been stronger.

Now layer on the global demand curve:

• 30+ countries pledging to triple nuclear capacity

• AI data centers expected to use 12% of US electricity by 2028

• Germany reversing course and returning to nuclear

The setup is here.

And one company has plans to drill in the heart of it all: Canada’s Athabasca Basin.

With early uranium hits, expanding alteration zones, and proximity to NexGen and Cameco, this could be the next name to watch in the sector.

Discover the full story behind this quietly rising stock.

*Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular Issuer from one referenced date to another represent an arbitrarily chosen time period and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that Issuer and are of no predictive value. Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for YOUR further investigation; they are NOT stock recommendations or constitute an offer or sale of the referenced securities.

Pharmaceuticals

U.S. Drugmakers Face Quiet Threat: Overdependence on Chinese Ingredients

America’s pharmaceutical supply chain is under renewed scrutiny as trade friction with China intensifies and policymakers weigh potential tariffs on drug imports.

Recent trade disputes with China have raised concerns about the U.S.'s reliance on foreign drug ingredients. Policymakers are debating tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, spotlighting a critical weakness in America’s drug supply chain.

Over 90% of the inputs used in U.S. prescription drugs are imported, with a significant share originating from China. This dependence leaves the U.S. vulnerable to supply disruptions or cost spikes if trade barriers are tightened. China’s grip on these materials could lead to shortages of vital drugs, such as antibiotics or cancer treatments.

The pharmaceutical industry has relied on global supply chains to keep costs down, but this approach now seems shaky. Even slight delays or price hikes from China could disrupt supplies of generics and critical injectables, affecting hospitals and pharmacies nationwide.

A push for U.S.-based production could reduce risks, but building new facilities would be costly and slow. For now, healthcare providers and patients face uncertainty as trade talks continue. Tariffs, if enacted, could raise drug prices and limit access, potentially harming the healthcare system significantly.

📊 Metrics to Watch

• Investment-Grade Enthusiasm: Blue-chips like Alphabet, Procter & Gamble, and D.R. Horton sold over $18 billion of corporate debt earlier this week, the largest one-day sale since March. 

• Alternative Assets: 66% of global institutional investors are increasing their private asset exposure this year in reaction to a wider flight from public equities. 

• Economic Contraction: 2025’s first quarter posted a 0.3% decline in real GDP according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, breaking a 3-year growth trend.

• Subprime Auto Loans: Delinquency rates on subprime loans rose to 6.56% this year, the highest rate since 1994, and may serve as a warning sign for broader consumer distress. 

🚀 Market Movers

• 🏦 Treasury Buybacks: The Treasury Department may soon ramp up their older government debt buyback program to ease concerns around the U.S. government’s ability to service its debt (and tamp down bond market volatility). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, specifically, that he had a “big toolkit” and “could up the buybacks” in the coming months.

• 💰Earnings Outlook: Corporations are increasingly not issuing forward guidance or full-year outlooks amid the current earnings season, even as the reports themselves aren’t yet pointing to significant disruption. Ultimately, the name of the game is uncertainty surrounding supply lines and pending consumer demands, putting the stock market in limbo even as the S&P 500 slowly regains its footing. 

• ✈️ Private Equity Seeks Euro Defense Tech: Private equity has long shied away from defense sectors due to their tight regulations and relatively slim margins, having collectively invested over $1 billion in defense in just 5 of the last 20 years. That’s changing as European DefTech becomes an increasingly attractive prospect - PE firms have already plunged $790 million into the sector this year, setting the pace for a record-setting buying spree.

• 🎖️ Defense Spending Surges: Likewise, governments around the world are pouring as much capital as possible into their defense industries amid global uncertainty. Gross global military expenditure climbed 9.4% in 2025’s first quarter, even as national governments clamp down on spending elsewhere.

Trading Methods (Sponsored)

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⚡ Thematic ETF of the Week

If our look at booming defense spending (especially in Europe) whets your appetite, don’t worry - you don’t have to be a private equity player to get a piece of the action. 

The Global X Defense Tech ETF (NYSEARCA: SHLD) combines the best of multiple worlds: stable defense companies with continued capital inflows, next-generation and cutting-edge tech opportunities, and (key in today’s macro environment) exposure to a range of expanding defense sectors outside the United States.  

SHLD aims to capture a wide swath of global defense spending, projected to grow at a 5% annual rate through 2030, while blending its exposure to traditional defense industrial staples with cybersecurity and artificial intelligence. 

The ETF’s major international holdings include Rheinmetall (Germany), Thales (France), and Bae (Britain). Better yet, it offers exposure to hot U.S. defense stocks like Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) and Red Cat Holdings (NASDAQ: RCAT) while mitigating single-stock volatility.  

• Expense Ratio: 0.50%, or $50 per $10,000 invested

• 30-Day SEC Yield: 0.61%

• Total Assets: $1.7 billion

• YTD Performance: +39.01% (well above the broader market’s 5% decline)

🗓️ Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 Non-Farm Payrolls (April) – May 2nd: Economists forecast a significant job growth slowdown in the first report since tariffs took effect as companies pause hiring amid uncertainty.  

• 📅 Unemployment (April) – May 2nd: On the flip side, analysts expect limited new layoffs and a continued ~4% unemployment rate. 

• 📅 Factory Orders (April) – May 2nd: A surge in April ordering may be the last heavy manufacturing push for the foreseeable future.

🧩 Everything Else

• Demand for ESG-centric staff is all but dead across corporate America, according to a report from Bloomberg and Live Data Technologies.  

• The Carlyle Group is closing a deal on $464 million in bonds backed by music rights for artists such as Katy Perry and Keith Urban, demonstrating an institutional appetite for unique diversification efforts. 

• Chinese exports are plunging as tariffs take full effect. 

• Likewise, Chinese D2C retailers are slashing their ad spend, according to Meta. 

• Home sellers are dropping their asking prices by an average of 9% before making a sale, indicating that the era of inflated housing pricing may soon come to an end.