If last week’s jobs data had you eyeing cash, this week’s producer prices just told you to keep one foot in risk.

PPI surprised lower and Fitch nudged global growth up on better China/Europe vibes, even as U.S. momentum cools. For your portfolio, here’s what to lean into this week.

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The Big Picture

Consumer

Last Call? U.S. Beer Industry Faces Shifting Tastes and Shrinking Sales

Beer may still be the nation’s go-to drink, but the froth is thinning.

Sales are down about half a percent this year, roughly $200 million off the table, with domestic premium brands like Budweiser and Coors taking the heaviest hit.

Those legacy names lost more than 5% of sales, erasing over half a billion dollars in value.

Craft beer, once the darling of the industry, isn’t faring much better. After years of growth, it’s now slipping 3% in dollar terms, with some brewers shutting their doors altogether.

For smaller players, survival is becoming less about hops and more about balance sheets.

Import Surge and the Rise of “Not Beer”

While American lagers stumble, imports are pouring in to fill the gap. Sales of foreign brands are up 4%, worth around $10 billion, and carving out nearly a quarter of the U.S. beer market.

Meanwhile, flavored malt beverages and canned cocktails are crashing the party. These “anything-but-beer” options jumped 7%, overtaking some low-tier brands entirely.

For many younger drinkers, convenience in a can is beating tradition in a bottle.

The Buzz Around No Buzz

The most surprising winner? Non-alcoholic beer. Sales spiked nearly 30%, officially claiming 1% of the total beer market for the first time.

The bottom line? America’s drinking habits are evolving, and the beer aisle is where you see it first.

Markets

When Confidence Wavers, America Turns to Gold

Gold is hovering near record highs, a signal that uncertainty is weighing heavily on the U.S. economy.

Prices have surged almost 40% this year, with spot levels brushing past $3,670 an ounce and forecasts now stretching as high as $4,000 by mid-2026.

The metal’s rally isn’t just about markets—it’s about faith, or the lack of it, in the direction of U.S. growth.

At the center of the surge is a softening labor market and growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the coming weeks.

Non-yielding gold thrives when borrowing costs fall, turning it into the go-to hedge when households, businesses, and policymakers sense turbulence.

Safe Haven, American Edition

Gold’s appeal also reflects deeper shifts.

Payroll revisions have revealed weaker job creation than previously thought, while trade tensions and inflation jitters have amplified doubts about long-term stability.

Central banks worldwide are stockpiling reserves, but U.S. consumers and investors are equally signaling that trust in paper assets isn’t what it once was.

For the broader economy, record gold is a reminder: when confidence in jobs, trade, and policy falters, Americans instinctively look for a store of value.

Right now, that store is glittering bright.

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Oil

From Drill Baby Drill to Wait and See: The Oil Slowdown Hits Home

The American oil patch is pulling back hard. Rig counts are down, billions in spending have been slashed, and thousands of jobs have been lost.

For an industry that turned the U.S. into the world’s top producer, this feels like a turning point.

Drilling Freeze, Jobs on Ice

Rig activity has slipped by nearly 70 this year, leaving the Permian and other shale fields quieter than usual.

That slowdown has already hit workers, with ConocoPhillips and Chevron both announcing major layoffs and oilfield services cutting staff, too.

Once a hiring machine, the sector is suddenly in retrenchment mode.

Cost Pressure Meets Cheap Crude

Lower oil prices and higher material costs are squeezing margins. Producers have cut about $2 billion in capital expenditures, according to industry tallies.

For many operators, oil needs to climb back toward the $70–75 range to make drilling worthwhile. Until then, efficiency and belt-tightening are the new strategies.

America’s Role at Risk

The bigger story? U.S. dominance in global energy markets looks shakier. OPEC+ is raising output and filling the gap, while forecasts point to stagnant or even falling American production. 

That’s not just an oilfield problem—it’s a shift with real implications for jobs, trade balances, and U.S. influence abroad.

Metrics to Watch

• CPI (Thu): Headline and core are the swing vote for whether the Fed sticks to 25 bps or flirts with faster follow-ups. A tame core keeps “cuts + soft landing” in play; a hot print argues for slower easing even with weak jobs.
  

• Producer Prices (Wed – just in): PPI fell 0.1% m/m and is up 2.6% y/y, with services margins compressing, evidence firms are eating some tariff costs. That’s disinflationary… until pricing power snaps back.
  

• Household Income (Census): Real median income was roughly flat vs. 2019; high earners outpaced everyone. Thin buffers mean demand can fade fast if layoffs pick up or prices re-accelerate.
  

• Payroll Benchmark Revisions: BLS says the U.S. had ~911k fewer jobs over the year through March than earlier reported, so the labor baseline is softer. Watch how this colors Fed rhetoric into next week.
  

• Global Growth Pulse: Fitch lifted 2025 world growth to 2.4% (China and the eurozone less gloomy), while Japan’s Q2 was revised up to a 2.2% annualized gain. Better abroad can cushion U.S. softness, and support exporters and EM FX, if tariffs don’t bite harder.

Market Movers

📉 PPI: “Tariff Absorption” Trade
With producer prices dipping and trade-services margins squeezed, retailers/wholesalers are eating costs, for now. That supports near-term disinflation (bullish duration, quality growth), but watch Q3–Q4 earnings for margin guidance creep.

👷 Jobs: Cut Is Coming, Pace Is the Puzzle
August added just 22k jobs and the BLS revision lowered the starting point. A 25 bps cut next week looks baked; consecutive cuts are now a live debate.

🌍 Global Bright Spots vs. U.S. Slow Lane
Fitch’s upgrade and Japan’s stronger Q2 say “don’t abandon cyclicals everywhere.”

💳 Consumer Wallet Check
Flat real median incomes and a wider gap between high- and middle-income households argue for a K-shaped spend.

⚖️ Policy Track: Cuts Now, Tariffs Later
Lower producer inflation gives the Fed cover; tariff mechanics still lurk. Expect selective passthrough into 4Q promotions and 2026 price lists.

Market Impacts

Equities: Futures are basically doing the hokey-pokey (one tick in, one tick out) as you and everyone else wait for CPI.

We just printed back-to-back S&P 500 record closes, juiced by Oracle’s monster cloud guide (best day since ’92, casual), which kept the AI trade strutting while the Dow lagged. 

PPI’s downside surprise keeps the “cut next week” drumbeat going, but with the index perched near highs, folks are hugging risk a little tighter ahead of CPI/claims.

Play it like a pro: stick with quality cash-gushers in mega-cap tech and keep a little dry powder for any CPI wobble.

Bonds: Treasuries liked the cooler PPI and an A-plus 10-yr auction (indirects feasted), so yields edged down: ~4.04% on the 10-yr, ~4.70% on the 30-yr, and the 2-yr hanging near ~3.54%.

Markets have a 25 bp cut next week at ~lock status; a soft CPI probably nudges term premium lower, but watch the long end if deficits/Fed-cred headlines flare. 

Tactics: add a touch of 2–5y on backups, and keep some 30-yr hedges in case CPI comes in spicy.

Currencies: The dollar eased after PPI, nothing dramatic, just a polite step lower as odds of a cut stayed firm. Think USD/JPY around the high-147s, EUR/USD near 1.17. 

Setup is binary into CPI: soft print = more USD drift and room for EUR/CHF to perk up; upside surprise = fast USD snapback because the “cuts, cuts, cuts” trade is crowded.

Translation: trim any tactical USD longs into the data and be ready to flip quick.

Commodities: Gold’s still wearing the crown, hovering just under recent records as “cooler inflation + looming cuts + policy drama” keeps safe-haven/rates demand humming.

Oil popped >1% on fresh geopolitical jitters, but inventory builds and OPEC+’s “small but steady” output creep are capping rallies, think sell the rips unless we get real supply disruption. 

Portfolio stance is you should keep a measured gold ballast, and in energy, prefer refiners/transport over high-beta upstream until demand data stops softening.

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Key Indicators to Watch

📅 CPI (Thu, 8:30 a.m. ET)
Consensus: +0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y. This is the main event. A tame headline keeps the “25 bp now, steady pace later” script intact; a hot print throws cold water on back-to-back cuts.

📅 Core CPI (Thu, 8:30 a.m. ET)
Consensus: +0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y. This is the tie-breaker for services stickiness. A 0.3% with softer details means risk-on; any upside surprise should have the dollar up, duration down, growth wobble.

📅 Initial Jobless Claims (Thu, 8:30 a.m. ET)
Consensus: 235k. Claims have been the “no drama” line, if they jump, the labor-softening story gets louder, and the 50 bp chatter won’t stay fringe.

📅 U.S. Federal Budget (Thu, 2:00 p.m. ET)
Consensus: –$300B. Not market-moving minute-to-minute, but deficits matter for term premium. A wider gap keeps the long end twitchy.

📅 Consumer Sentiment (Fri, 10:00 a.m. ET, prelim)
Consensus: 58.1. If sentiment can’t lift with record equities and pending cuts, it reinforces the “fragile consumer” vibe, good for staples/value retail, tougher for lower-ticket goods.

Everything Else

• The latest PPI report showed producer prices dipping 0.1% in August, with services margins compressing as firms absorbed tariff costs.

• The U.S. economy may be weaker than thought, with 1.2 million fewer jobs than earlier reported, raising doubts about labor market strength.

• Markets are now pricing a small chance the Fed opts for a half-point cut next week, though 25 bps remains the base case.

• The average 30-year mortgage rate slid to an 11-month low, offering some relief to housing demand.

• Deloitte expects holiday sales to grow at the slowest pace since the pandemic, highlighting fragile consumer sentiment.