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- More Cuts On Deck, QT Taps The Brakes, And Trade Tempers (For Now)
More Cuts On Deck, QT Taps The Brakes, And Trade Tempers (For Now)
Noah Zelvis
October 15, 2025
Powell all but kept the another cut sign flashing, hinted the Fed may soon slow or stop balance-sheet runoff, and the White House is trying to cool tariff drama with China after last week’s fireworks.
That means borrowing could get a little cheaper, liquidity may stop draining as fast, and China-sensitive swings might calm… until the next tweet.
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Why The China Headlines Matter
D.C. wants to de-escalate publicly while keeping leverage privately. Beijing is talking tough but also leaving an off-ramp on rare-earth export controls.
Markets heard that and noted for everyone to please chill, and exhaled.
That doesn’t mean the 100% tariff threat is gone. It means the base case is a summit photo-op and more jawboning instead of an immediate tariff nuke.
Actionable takeaway is to look at names tied to domestic manufacturing and supply-chain re-routing still carry a tailwind, while the pure China risk shorts can’t assume an escalator straight down.
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What This Means For Your Rates (and budget)
Mortgages: If another cut lands and QT slows, the term premium pressure eases. Don’t expect a cliff-drop, but you can see better lock windows. Have docs ready and treat dips like limited-time coupons.
Cards/HELOCs: APR relief drips in with a lag. Use it to pay down balances, not expand them. Future You will high-five Current You.
Savings: HYSA yields drift lower as trims compound. Consider a simple Treasury ladder so you’re not playing whack-a-mole with teaser rates.
Refi/leases: Small cuts add up. If you’ve got a car lease coming due, shop widely, as funding costs trickle into monthly numbers faster than you’d think.
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Positioning Moves Now
Barbell the boring and the building: Keep resilient cash-flow names and pair them with domestic build-out plays (grid, warehouses, specialty metals).
Prefer tariff-light input bills: Less import exposure means fewer surprise margin dents.
Lean into balance-sheet health: If QT slows, credit spreads can behave; companies that already fund cheap win twice.
Stage entries: Trade talks are a light switch. Buy in thirds and keep your blood pressure down.
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Quick Takeaways
Powell kept the door open for another cut and hinted QT may slow soon.
De-escalation with China is the motif of the week, not a signed peace treaty.
Cheaper money plus steadier liquidity helps cyclicals, infra, and quality credit.
Stay domestic-tilted, supply-chain-clean, and buy in slices.
Top Picks
GlobalFoundries (NASDAQ: GFS) Another rate cut lowers the cost of new tools and expansions at the margin, while any China de-escalation reduces headline whiplash without killing the reshoring thesis. The kicker is the administration’s floated 1:1 manufacture in U.S. to match imports idea would funnel even more design-wins toward domestic foundries. Upside comes from utilization trending up and mix shifting to higher-value specialty nodes; risk is capex cyclicality—so size it like a quality cyclical, not a forever hold. |
Carpenter Technology (NYSE: CRS) CRS benefits from a multi-year aerospace rebuild, domestic supply chains, and pricing power in mission-critical grades. If QT slows and funding markets stay calm, backlogs convert to cash with fewer hiccups. If China tensions cool, great, as international demand steadies. If they flare, domestic sourcing looks even better. Watch for margin expansion as premium mix grows and bottlenecks ease. It’s an under-the-hood winner of rearm, re-fleet, and re-shoring, with policy acting like a tailwind, not a tax. |
EastGroup Properties (NYSE: EGP) A slower QT plus another cut lowers discount rates and greases the refi runway; meanwhile, tight markets in Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Tampa, and friends support rent growth. EGP focuses on smaller bay, last-mile assets with sticky tenants, less exposed to mega-box boom-bust. Tariff noise doesn’t mean much as tenants still need space to store, stage, and ship, whether goods are domestic or rerouted. Think of EGP as owning the loading dock in growing metros, with policy shifts mostly helping, not hurting. |
Saia (NASDAQ: SAIA) SAIA has been taking share with service quality and network density, and every notch lower in rates helps capex for doors, tractors, and tech. If tariff talk simmers, restocking and on-shoring lanes stay busy, if it reheats, domestic production and near-shoring still need fast, reliable LTL. Mix and pricing discipline have improved the operating ratio through cycles. You’re paying for quality execution, but in a world of wobbly macro, hitting dock times and price rationally is a surprisingly potent moat. |
Risk Management
Position in thirds around the late-October meeting, Powell’s tone can yank yields 20 bps in an afternoon.
Trim anything hyper-sensitive to a China relapse into strength, and keep a small hedge (think optionality) if you’re overweight global cyclicals.
Keep some duration, not all duration: A QT slowdown and cut is friendly for 5–10yr, but hold short rungs so you can pivot if inflation refuses to chill.
Bottom line: Powell is easing without sprinting, QT may soon quit dieting, and trade saber-rattling looks muted, at least for this week.
Build a calm, policy-aware portfolio and let the headlines argue while your cash flows compound.
That’s it for today’s edition—thanks for reading! Reply to this email with any feedback or let me know which macro trends or markets you’d like me to cover next.
Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Macro Notes