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The Big Picture

Oil Markets

U.S. Sits on 30 Billion Barrels That Could Reshape Global Oil Strategy 

The U.S. Geological Survey has reported nearly 30 billion barrels of undiscovered oil beneath federal lands, opening the door to potential shifts in American energy strategy.

Alaska leads the pack with over 14 billion barrels, followed by New Mexico and Nevada.

The findings come as domestic production growth slows due to natural field depletion and rising costs, especially in the Permian Basin.

What’s striking is how this discovery reshapes the outlook for U.S. energy dominance.

After years of relying heavily on shale, producers now have reason to look beyond aging top-tier acreage.

The potential in Alaska and other underexplored regions could alleviate pressure on shale plays, providing policymakers and producers with fresh options at a time when global energy competition is intensifying.

Expanding drilling on federal lands would mark a dramatic shift that could spark legal, regulatory, and political battles.

However, with rising global demand and geopolitical risks clouding the oil market, the pull toward tapping these resources may intensify.

The scale of the reserves alone is likely to fuel new debates over how the United States manages its vast energy assets.

This assessment gives fresh weight to long-term energy planning.

How and when these reserves are developed will help shape U.S. economic and geopolitical strength in the years ahead.

Crypto

Texas Bitcoin Reserve Sets New Standard for Public Crypto Adoption 

Texas has launched the first publicly funded and autonomous Bitcoin reserve in the United States, marking a bold move in the state's financial strategy.

Backed by new laws, the reserve gives the State Treasurer direct authority to manage Bitcoin holdings, positioning Texas at the forefront of public-sector crypto adoption.

Unlike other state-led initiatives, this one blends innovation with stringent safeguards.

The reserve is restricted to assets with a market capitalization above $500 billion, a threshold that currently only Bitcoin meets.

Combined with oversight from a panel of experts, this approach aims to strike a balance between risk and opportunity.

For other states and public finance observers, Texas is now a test case in integrating digital assets responsibly into government portfolios.

At a time of economic uncertainty and inflation concerns, Texas is betting on Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset rather than a short-term trade.

The move could influence other states to explore similar paths while reigniting national debate on the role of crypto in public finance.

Legal protections around the fund signal how seriously Texas views this step, insulating it from political shifts or misallocation.

With the launch of its Bitcoin reserve, Texas positions itself as both a pioneer in crypto and a leader in regulatory innovation.

The next phase will reveal whether this model can deliver stability and value in the unpredictable world of digital assets.

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Commercial Real Estate

Debt Wall Looms as U.S. Commercial Real Estate Hits Breaking Point 

Stress in U.S. commercial real estate lending is intensifying as rising borrowing costs, policy uncertainty, and the work-from-home trend continue to weigh on the sector.

Delinquencies have climbed, while the volume of distressed assets now stands at the highest level in more than a decade.

Lenders are facing more challenging conditions as debt maturities approach and property values come under pressure.

Some banks are extending loan terms to avoid immediate losses, while others are pulling back from the market entirely.

Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, for example, announced plans to exit its U.S. commercial property lending business, citing challenges in the current environment.

Direct lending activity has increased, adding to the strain on traditional lenders and raising fresh concerns from regulators about potential risks to the broader financial system.

The Financial Stability Board recently warned that this growth in shadow lending could amplify shocks and create new vulnerabilities for banks and investors alike.

New policy proposals, including potential tax changes, are adding to the cautious mood.

Uncertainty around trade, tariffs, and regulation is contributing to delays in business decisions and dampening demand for commercial space, particularly offices and warehouses.

The growing distress signals a shift for the U.S. property market and its lenders.

How companies manage these challenges will help define the next phase of commercial real estate and its role in the broader economy.

Metrics to Watch

• AI Pay Packages: Zuckerberg is heating up the AI arms race, hunting down talent and offering as much as $100 million for top artificial intelligence researchers.

• Home Sales: Existing home sales ticked upward slightly, ending May at +0.8% to just over 4 million sold, though the modest improvement came more from sellers dropping prices rather than renewed sector enthusiasm.

• Cost of Business: US company collective costs rose at nearly the fastest pace in three years throughout June, primarily due to inflation and continued tariff price hikes, as measured by recent S&P U.S. Service and U.S. Manufacturing index surveys. 

• Home Starts: Starts, however, dropped nearly 10% as builders project a steep drop-off in future sales and increasingly inflated supply.

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Market Movers

☢️ Nuclear Renaissance Sparks in New York: New York’s plan to build a 1-gigawatt nuclear facility, the first major U.S. plant in over 15 years, is electrifying the sector, with Trump’s permitting reforms increasing overall tailwinds.

The initiative tests whether streamlined regulations can revive nuclear construction, though cost overruns, like those at Georgia’s Vogtle plant, remain a hurdle in the high-CapEx industry.

⚓️ Tankers Dodge Strait of Hormuz Risks: Six tankers, including crude carriers, diverted from the Strait of Hormuz amid Israel-Iran tensions, with three later resuming course.

Frontline (NYSE: FRO) halted new contracts through the strait, and rising insurance costs could tighten oil supply chains. 

💉 Novo Nordisk Cuts Ties with Hims & Hers: Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) ended its partnership with Hims & Hers (NYSE: HIMS) over illegal sales of compounded Wegovy knock-offs, tanking Hims’ stock 30%+ within hours.

Novo’s focus on patient safety and FDA compliance strengthens its brand, but its shares dipped by about 6% amid the fallout, with the “bigger picture” highlighting risks in telehealth’s reliance on compounded drugs.

🚕 Tesla’s Robotaxi Test Revs Up: Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) robotaxi trial in Austin, with 10-20 Model Ys charging $4.20 per ride, sent shares soaring 9% Monday.

Wedbush praised the safe, user-friendly experience, though scaling to compete with Waymo (NASDAQ: GOOG) or Uber (NYSE: UBER) remains an uphill battle after past autonomous driving mishaps.

Market Impacts

Equities: Don’t call it a bubble: high-margin innovators like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) are powering the S&P 500, with 40% of its market cap boasting 60% gross margins. 

Bonds: U.S. Treasurys lost their safe-haven shine after Israel’s attack on Iran, with 10-year yields spiking to 4.324%.

Investors pivoted to Asian bonds, while ETFs like the SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury Bond (NYSEARCA: BWX), up ~8% YTD, continue to outperform the domestic iShares 7-10 Year Treasury (NYSEARCA: IEF), signaling a need for diversified fixed-income hedges.

Currencies: Stablecoin momentum is boosting fintech stocks, with Fiserv (NYSE: FI) climbing 3%+ after launching FIUSD alongside Circle (NASDAQ: CRCL), whose shares soared 675% since its June IPO.

The Senate’s GENIUS Act passage fuels optimism for regulatory clarity, though uncertainties linger, keeping the Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSEARCA: FXE) steady (+11% on the year) as dollar alternatives gain traction.

Commodities: Crude oil prices edged up 1% to around $70 per barrel after U.S. strikes on Iran, trailing a 21% monthly gain, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLE) lagged with a 7% trailing one-month rise.

Ample supply and OPEC’s planned production hikes signal potential oversupply, pressuring futures and dimming prospects for oil majors like ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM).

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Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 Consumer Confidence (June)  – June 24th: A (slight) projected month-over-month improvement may mark a retail rebound in time for summer.     

• 📅 Jerome Powell Testifies to House FinServ Committee – June 24th: Expect more Fed-bashing from Trump if Powell’s testimony doesn’t capitulate on rate cut prospects. 

• 📅 New Home Sales (May) – June 25th: Existing home sales improved slightly, and with builders cutting down on starts, new home sales may follow suit.

Everything Else

• Keep prices low, says Trump, as he wants oil companies not to play “into the hands of the enemy.” 

• Zillow’s home listing empire is at risk as it faces antitrust suits. 

• One Fed Governor says rate cuts are on the summer menu - if inflation continues creeping downward. 

• Amazon’s newest internet satellite launch proves its ability to begin snagging market share from Starlink.

• Lots of risk factors are coming to a head in July, which could spike volatility despite the month’s historical strength for stocks.