Softer wholesale inflation gave the bulls room to breathe. Missiles kept flying over the Gulf. And an Asian central bank made a move that lands directly on your semiconductor book.

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The Big Picture

Supply Chains

A Multistate Produce Outbreak Is Testing America’s Food System

U.S. health officials are examining lettuce and other fresh produce as they investigate a growing outbreak of intestinal illness across several states. No single food, farm, supplier, or restaurant has been confirmed as the source.

Investigators are tracing what patients ate and following produce shipments through the food network as more cases are identified. The uncertainty is drawing fresh attention to how quickly a single contaminated ingredient can spread across the country.

Fresh Food Moves Fast

Produce can travel from farms to packing facilities, distributors, restaurants, and grocery stores within days. Speed keeps shelves stocked and reduces waste, but it also makes outbreaks harder to contain when the source remains unknown.

Restaurants and supermarkets may remove products as a precaution, while consumers can begin avoiding entire food categories before investigators confirm where the problem started.

Confidence Can Change Overnight

Food safety problems can quickly spread beyond public health. Restaurant traffic may weaken, grocery waste can rise, and agricultural orders can be disrupted when buyers become uncertain about a product.

The economic damage depends heavily on how quickly officials identify the source and separate affected shipments from the wider supply chain. The latest outbreak is testing America’s ability to trace fresh food across a large and highly connected market.

Finding the source quickly could protect both consumers and businesses from a much broader disruption.

Housing Market

America’s Homebuying Slowdown Is Spreading

U.S. contracts to buy existing homes fell sharply, dropping far more than economists expected and weakening across every region of the country.

The latest decline shows homebuyers are pulling back again as high mortgage rates collide with record property prices. Even households with steady incomes are struggling to make monthly payments work at today’s borrowing costs.

Demand remains present, but affordability is blocking many purchases before they reach the closing table.

The Affordability Wall Holds

Higher mortgage rates have changed what families can afford without producing the large price decline many buyers hoped for.

Existing homeowners with older, cheaper loans are also reluctant to sell. Fewer listings keep prices elevated, while expensive financing reduces the number of people able to buy them. The result is a housing market where both buyers and sellers have reasons to wait.

The Slowdown Spreads Wider

A weaker housing market does not stay inside real estate. Fewer home purchases can reduce demand for mortgages, renovations, furniture, appliances, moving services, and other spending connected to a change of address.

Housing also plays a major role in household confidence. Families that cannot afford to move may delay job changes, growing their families, or relocating to areas with better opportunities.

Until mortgage rates or home prices move lower, the market could remain frozen even as the wider economy continues to grow.

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Critical Minerals

The U.S. Manufacturing Push Has a Critical Minerals Weak Spot

A new warning released Thursday says tighter rare-earth export controls could disrupt trillions of dollars in manufacturing across the United States and Europe.

The materials are used in small amounts, but they are essential for cars, aircraft, electronics, energy equipment, and defense systems. A delay in one mineral can slow an entire factory even when workers, machines, and customer demand are ready.

America’s manufacturing push has gained momentum, but the supply chain underneath it remains exposed.

Factories Need More Than Buildings

The United States is pouring money into chip plants, battery facilities, electric vehicles, energy projects, and advanced manufacturing.

Many of those factories still depend on critical materials processed overseas.

Building more mines will help, but mining is only one part of the problem. The country also needs refining facilities, magnet production, recycling systems, and dependable supply agreements.

New projects are beginning to reduce the dependence, but replacing decades of concentrated production will take time.

The Industrial Race Changes

Access to critical minerals is becoming as important as electricity, labor, and financing.

A serious shortage could delay production, raise costs, and weaken efforts to bring more manufacturing back to the United States.

The latest warning adds urgency to domestic refining, mineral stockpiles, recycling, and partnerships with reliable suppliers.

America is building more factories. The next test is whether it can secure enough materials to keep those factories running.

Metrics to Watch

• 📊 June PPI
  Producer prices fell 0.3% MoM against expectations of a small rise, and the year-over-year figure came in well below consensus. Cleanest disinflation signal since Q1. It removes any real pressure for a July hike.
  

• 📈 10-Year Treasury Yield
  Sitting at 4.54%, down from 4.62% earlier this week. Real yields remain elevated, which is why the dollar stayed firm even as nominal yields dipped.
  

• 💹 WTI Crude
  Trading at $79.62, sharply higher on Iran escalation. Every $10 sustained move in crude adds roughly 0.3% to headline CPI over three months. The Fed is watching closely.
  

• 🏛️ Fed Funds Futures
  Implied probability of a July hike collapsed to under 17% after the PPI print. The market is now pricing higher for longer without additional hikes. Goldilocks for equities, as long as oil doesn't break out further.
  

• 🏠 Unemployment Rate
  Held at 4.2% in June, down from 4.3%. The labor market is neither cracking nor overheating, which gives Warsh cover to sit on his hands.

Market Movers

🛢️ Hormuz Disruption
Fewer vessels are transiting the strait, and some are refusing US-escorted convoys entirely. Real supply constraint, not a fear premium. It is showing up in Brent's $84 handle.

🏦 Bank Earnings Kickoff
Wells Fargo, Goldman, and the big money-center names have set a strong tone for Q2 season. Loan growth is holding up, and net interest margins are stabilizing even as the Fed sits still.

💵 Dollar Softening
DXY slipped toward a one-month low as PPI cooled Fed hike bets. The euro pushed to $1.1472, and dollar-yen slipped to 162.07. If this continues, it will be a tailwind for US multinationals and emerging-market assets.

🌏 Korea Contagion Risk
The BOK hike and KOSPI plunge sent a ripple through global semiconductor names. Watch for follow-through selling in US chip stocks if Asian tech continues to unwind overnight.

Market Impacts

📈 Equities: The S&P 500 closed at 7,572.40, up 0.38%, another all-time high. Nasdaq gained 0.62% to 26,269.23, and the Dow added 0.29% to 52,658.64.

Communications led at +2.69%. Cooler inflation plus solid bank earnings equals a market that wants to keep pushing higher.

🏦 Bonds: The 10-year yield dipped to 4.54%, the 2-year fell about 9bps to 4.19%, and the 30-year held at 5.09%.

Curve steepening picked up modestly as short rates outperformed. This is a rally with room to extend if PCE confirms the PPI signal.

💱 Currencies: The dollar softened to a one-month low against the euro and yen after PPI. Elevated US real yields kept a floor under the greenback, but the near-term bias is lower. Safe-haven flows into CHF and JPY continue on Iran headlines.

🛢️ Commodities: WTI at $79.62 and Brent at $84.78, both sharply higher on Iran escalation. Gold at $4,038.60 is up over 20% for the year.

Silver surged to $57.70. Copper firm at $6.40. Natural gas is the outlier, down 18% to $2.90 as inventories build.

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Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 July 16. US Retail Sales (June) - Consensus looks for a modest rebound after May's soft print. This is the tell on whether consumer spending is finally cracking under high rates and higher gas prices.
  

• 📅 July 16. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July) - A leading indicator for factory activity. A weak print here after last month's softness would put a stagflation narrative back on the table.
  

• 📅 July 17. US Housing Starts and Building Permits (June) - With mortgage rates hovering near 7%, any further deterioration in housing starts would give the doves more ammunition.
  

• 📅 July 17 Bank earnings continue with Travelers, Truist, Fifth Third, and Regions - Regional bank margins are the tell for whether Main Street is still borrowing at these rates.

Everything Else

• 📡 Several small-cap stocks are quietly displaying early stage patterns and a free guide breaks down three distinct profiles and the signals behind them.

• 🏭 June wholesale inflation offered another read on pipeline price pressures as investors reassessed the rate outlook.

• 🛒 Consumer inflation cooled in June, strengthening the case that price pressures are easing without a major hit to economic growth.

• 🇯🇵 More Japanese households expect prices to keep rising, according to a Bank of Japan survey, complicating the central bank’s inflation balancing act.

• 🇧🇷 The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on some Brazilian goods, adding fresh strain to trade relations between the two countries.