Hello and welcome to Macro Notes, your go-to source for the latest macroeconomic trends, market-moving news, and key indicators to watch. We cut through the noise to bring you actionable insights in just a few minutes.

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The Big Picture

Energy

Aramco’s $90B U.S. Deal Push Signals Global Capital Flow Into Energy and AI

A new round of deal-making between Saudi Aramco and U.S.-based companies could bring up to $90 billion in investment across the energy, industrial, and technology sectors. The agreements span liquefied natural gas, advanced robotics, and artificial intelligence infrastructure, and represent one of the largest single-day deal clusters Aramco has announced with U.S. firms.

U.S. companies involved include major LNG and utility providers and advanced computing players tapped for AI development hubs, workforce training, and engineering programs.

A key feature of these agreements is building long-term technical and physical infrastructure inside the United States.

For U.S. investors, this influx of foreign capital reinforces the country's positioning as a stable and scalable environment for industrial investment.

This also strengthens visibility for sectors like LNG, utility-scale infrastructure, and enterprise AI, which could see accelerated project timelines and deeper global integration.

For long-term shareholders in these industries, the message is clear: the U.S. remains a strategic destination for high-stakes capital deployment.

The scale and breadth of the commitments reflect rising interest from global partners in tapping into U.S. innovation and production capacity.

As industrial policy continues to evolve, partnerships like these could help shape the next wave of domestic project growth, particularly in energy transition and smart manufacturing infrastructure.

Supply Chain

China Lifts Rare Earth Export Ban on U.S. Firms, Easing Pressure on Critical Supply Chains

China temporarily lifted export restrictions on seven categories of rare earth materials to 28 U.S. companies, offering a 90-day pause in a growing tension in cross-border supply chains.

The suspension includes elements such as dysprosium, terbium, and gadolinium, crucial inputs for defense technologies, electric vehicles, magnets, and semiconductor manufacturing.

The move allows eligible U.S. firms to apply for export licenses on dual-use materials previously restricted due to national security concerns. The change comes alongside a recent agreement to reduce specific tariffs between the U.S. and China, signaling early signs of stabilization in trade policy affecting high-tech industries.

This pause provides much-needed clarity in sectors that have faced price volatility, production delays, and sourcing uncertainty.

The development is especially relevant for industrial manufacturers, clean energy firms, and defense contractors that rely on a steady rare earth supply chain to meet contract timelines and cost targets. While the relief is temporary, it may influence near-term procurement and inventory decisions.

The export suspension follows weeks of increased regulatory activity, during which China added dozens of U.S. companies to its export control list.

With the suspension in place, attention turns to whether U.S. buyers can leverage the licensing window to secure critical inputs while broader trade negotiations continue.

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Oil & Gas

Oil Pulls Back as Potential U.S.–Iran Deal Raises Supply Expectations

Crude oil prices moved lower as reports surfaced of potential talks between the U.S. and Iran that could lead to eased sanctions and more Iranian oil entering global markets. While no formal agreement has been reached, traders reacted to the prospect of rising supply, adding pressure to an already cautious energy market.

The U.S. oil sector has benefited from tight global supply conditions in recent quarters, helping support pricing stability for producers and refiners.

A change in that balance, even temporarily, could affect near-term revenues and influence how energy companies approach production targets in the year's second half.

This development adds another layer of uncertainty to a market sensitive to policy shifts. If supply concerns escalate, U.S.-based oil companies, particularly those exposed to export markets or operating with slimmer margins, could see short-term pricing volatility.

That said, firms with disciplined capital spending and strong balance sheets may use price pullbacks as an opportunity to strengthen long-term positions.

Oil market watchers will be focused on whether discussions around sanctions lead to broader changes in global trade flows. For now, the sector remains on alert as it adjusts to shifting headlines and prepares for a potential realignment in global supply.

Metrics to Watch

• Home Purchase Sentiment: Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index began ticking upward in April following nearly six consecutive months of drops.   

• Small Business Pessimism: Biz owners aren’t feeling the same, however - the NFIB Small Business Survey saw widespread bearishness, with just 13% ranking their current small business health as “excellent.” 

• Inflation: A softer-than-expected inflation report (+2.3% year-over-year) allayed some recessionary concerns, but economists expect next month’s release to show greater impact from tariffs. 

• ‘De Minimis’ Drops: An underreported segment of Trump’s tariffs made shipping cheap goods more expensive - until he signed an executive order bringing the low-value shipment tax to just 30%.

Market Movers

📦 (Domestic) Foreign Trade Zones: A new, burgeoning cottage industry is springing up in reaction to tariffs as corporate entities (including Apple, Intel, and more) try to get ahead of logistics volatility: domestically situated warehousing designated as foreign trade zones for storing goods or on-the-spot manufacturing until more advantageous tariff conditions arise. 

While just a few exist, expect a flood of investment in the unique new real estate venture, with rumors of targeted REITs fundraising on the horizon.  

💰IPO Markets Heating Up: After a multi-year initial listing slump, IPO markets seem to be rebounding. This week saw eToro Group (NASDAQ: ETOR) blow past its planned $46 - $50 listing price to raise nearly $310 million, while Chime (America’s largest digital bank) released plans to go public.

IPO strength can be a leading indicator of wider economic improvements, so the recent return to form could foretell a bull market.

📈 Reacting to the Rally: Though tariff pauses and improved economic prospects are boosting stocks, bearish indicators still abound, leaving investors (retail and institutional alike) scratching their heads as they ponder their next move. A recent Goldman Sachs research report warns traders to take a cautiously optimistic approach, pegging the current recession odds at 35% (down from 45%), and saying that “near-term upside is likely to be limited.”  

🤖 AI is Eating the Workforce: As execs and management warn workers of AI threats, exemplified by Fiverr (NYSE: FVRR) CEO’s internal memo telling staff that “AI is coming for you,” we’re seeing a slew of on-the-ground reports indicating real and tangible impact across even specialized roles. Dubbed “The Great Displacement,” we’ve already seen 50,000 tech layoffs in 2025 - on pace to double 2024’s net job loss due to AI.

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Market Impacts

Value stocks are having their moment in the spotlight after a decade-long lag behind high-flying growth indices. Despite past underperformance, investors seeking some degree of safety in U.S. equities flooded into value stocks, sending benchmarks like the Morningstar U.S. Value Index handily beating its growth-based cousins.

Of the many value-based ETFs on the market, few can touch the Capital Group Dividend Value ETF’s (NYSEARCA: CGDV) performance, having returned nearly 4% on the year compared to the S&P 500’s sub-1% gain since January.

The ETF takes an active approach, targeting a dividend yield higher than the S&P 500 and sticks almost exclusively to classic value stocks like British American Tobacco (NYSE: BTI), General Electric (NYSE: GE), and McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD). 

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Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 Housing Starts (April) – May 16th: We’ll see if homebuilders echo the Home Purchase Index’s rebound in this month’s report.

• 📅 Preliminary Consumer Sentiment (May) – May 16th: Consumers still feel the pressure even with a tariff pause, which could weigh on this month’s sentiment report.  

• 📅 Leading Economic Indicators (April) – May 19th: The report is likely a wash since it forecasts pre-tariff pause stats, but could prove prescient if China trade talks break down.

Everything Else

• World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab is in the hot seat amid allegations of financial misdeeds, among other accusations. 

• The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau just slashed planned initiatives to regulate corporate use of Americans’ data. 

• Here’s a look behind the curtain on how domestic foreign trade zones, mentioned above, operate  (and where the nascent industry may go from here). 

• One such example of AI’s impact on tech staffing points toa potential workforce pivot toward trades as software engineers ponder their next move.  

• Sovereign AI initiatives may drive the next leg of global tech emphasis.

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