Hello and welcome to Macro Notes, your go-to source for the latest macroeconomic trends, market-moving news, and key indicators to watch. We cut through the noise to bring you actionable insights in just a few minutes.

Trading Methods (Sponsored)

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🌍 The Big Picture

Trade Policy

Washington Floats Big Tariff Cut for UK Cars—But Wants Concessions First

Washington and London are set to hold their first significant trade discussions in years, with the U.S. pushing hard for the UK to slash its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets UK Finance Chief Rachel Reeves this week, and the auto duty is at the top of the U.S. agenda, alongside demands for fewer restrictions on American agricultural exports.

We’ve been tracking transatlantic trade dynamics for a while, and this feels like a classic high-stakes negotiation. Last year, the Trump administration imposed a 10% tariff on most UK imports, with cars and steel hit at 25%. The U.S. is dangling relief, but only if Britain lowers its tariffs and opens its markets to more U.S. beef.

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Downing Street keeps quiet on specifics, with officials saying that “a trade war helps no one” and promising measured talks. That’s diplomatic, but the reality is stark: every day tariffs linger, they dig deeper into supply chains. Car plants in the Midlands feel the pinch of every percentage point, and they’re not alone.

Whether the U.S. will ease its duties if London complies remains unclear. A White House spokesperson was blunt, saying any final call “comes from President Trump and President Trump only.” That leaves plenty of uncertainty on the table.

Critical Minerals

U.S. Green-Lights Deep-Sea Mining to Counter China's Minerals Grip

The White House has greenlit a bold push to mine the ocean floor, issuing an executive order that directs U.S. agencies to expedite permits for deep-sea projects both domestically and, more provocatively, in high-seas zones beyond national jurisdiction.

This move clearly aims to break China's grip on nickel, copper, and rare-earth elements vital for batteries, wind turbines, and defense tech. The buzz around "friend-shoring" is everywhere, but this feels more like "sea-shoring," betting on offshore supply chains while racing to outpace geopolitical rivals.

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Critics are sounding alarms, arguing the U.S. is leapfrogging a U.N. process still hashing out global deep-sea mining rules. Greenpeace labeled it a "slap in the face. "Even some industry players admit we know little about the ecological fallout—sediment plumes and noise could wreak havoc on mid-water ecosystems we barely understand.

The administration insists it can balance resource access and environmental care by setting rigorous standards and partnering with allies.

Meanwhile, the International Seabed Authority is still aiming for global regulations by 2025, but whether that holds up against a U.S. fast-track is anyone's guess. We'll be watching to see if this gamble secures critical supplies or ignites a deeper global rift.

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Energy

Shale’s Growth Engine Stalls: Small Operators Shelve Rigs, Cut Budgets

With oil prices languishing, U.S. shale producers are putting the brakes on their production. Several independent firms are scaling back their drilling plans after crude futures hit a four-year low earlier this month, compounded by steel tariffs that have increased well costs.

The Energy Information Administration has reduced its 2025 U.S. production growth forecast to 300,000 barrels per day, down from 400,000 just weeks ago. The International Energy Agency made a similar cut, pointing to weaker demand and rising expenses.

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Take Blackridge Resources in Appalachia: they planned 15 new wells this year, but co-founder Bill Daugherty says they’re now aiming for ten. It’s tough to argue with the math—pipe, and frac-sand costs are up while oil prices slump.

Over in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin, Arena Resources is mulling a delay on three wells, where break-even hovers near $60 a barrel, among the highest in U.S. shale. At the current prices, drilling in that location seems more like a risk than a guaranteed investment.

For now, the shale patch is in a holding pattern, eyeing tariffs and waiting for prices to return to break-even.

📊 Metrics to Watch

• Home Sales: The spring housing market bucked its usual seasonal upward trend by falling 5.9% between February and March, with a 2.4% year-over-year decline.

• Gold ETF Inflows: The precious metals bull run continues with $8.6 billion in net inflows into gold-backed ETFs over the past month.

• Crowded Trades: At the same time, half of Bank of America-surveyed fund managers said that gold was the most overcrowded trade thus far in April, meaning that gold may soon be overbought. 

• Rate Cut Expectations: Futures markets are pricing in a nearly 50% chance of steady-state rates through June, a sharp increase as regional Fed presidents signal a limited appetite for cuts.

🚀 Market Movers

📔 Fed Beige Book: The Fed’s third Beige Book of 2025, a report detailing results from regional bank surveys, highlights a few concerning economic trends, including slowing tourism rates, Federal budget cuts affecting local initiatives, and the start of price hikes due to tariffs. Most concerning are higher port fees, which could hinder the inflow of goods and have drastic knock-on effects across retailer segments. 

🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Moves: Chobani became the latest major company to announce a massive investment in America-based production facility buildouts, joining the league of others making an on-shore manufacturing pivot like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Swiss pharma firm Roche. Onshored production was a stated goal of Trump’s tariffs, so the influx of capital points to a successful policy move in some respects, even as many decry the trade tax’s impact on the stock market. 

🌐 International Investment: Despite recent frothiness in the bond market, new Treasury Department data suggests a limited slowdown in international buyers flocking to U.S. debt. The auction allotment report released this week showed a 22% increase in Treasury auction purchases from foreign and international investors between March and April, demonstrating that the U.S. remains the gold standard in sovereign debt.  

🇨🇳 Chinese Standoff: China claimed no trade negotiations or informal talks were ongoing, a statement quickly refuted by President Trump, who said “[we] had meetings this morning, and we’ve been meeting with China.” The back-and-forth is throwing a wrench into the slow improvement of economic optimism, though regional ETFs like MCHI are pricing in greater negotiation leverage for China.

Tech Titans & Politics (Sponsored)

Elon Strikes Back

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⚡ Market Impacts

Equities: The S&P 500 rapidly shifted out of its correction range and away from borderline bear market territory as Trump put the pause on tariffs, and some progress toward a China trade deal seems likely. But the newfound peace seems tenuous, and traders considering whether to cycle back into equities and take a risk-on approach would be well advised to monitor the VIX, which remains at its highest levels since 2022’s mini-recession.

Bonds: There’s more bad news for muni markets: as higher yields force regional governments to take a hard look at whether funding projects through municipal bonds is worth the high payment costs, analysts are now forecasting a nearly 50% chance that the tax-advantaged bonds lose their preferred tax status in the coming years. Historically a primary reason why munis are worth buying in the first place, a significant blow to the buying market like this could cripple local government spending initiatives. 

Currencies: Gold’s bull run is having some unique downstream effects, as retailers like Costco (NASDAQ: COST) and local pawn and jewelry shops do a brisk trade in bullion bars and “scrap” gold. Though institutional and central bank gold buying is understandable, as are retail traders’ gold-backed ETF inflows, the average American’s sudden rush for physical gold points to a degree of exuberance that could presage a market drop.   

Commodities: The Trump Administration signaled intent to expand authorization for deep-sea precious metals exploration and mining, mainly in reaction to China’s rare earth metals export ban. While a niche field, firms like The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) are one of the few ways average traders can get ahead of the (seemingly) imminent executive endorsement of alternative mining strategies. 

🗓️ Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 Schiller Home Price Index (February) – April 29th: Home prices remain steady despite high mortgage costs and an increasing oversupply, but the trend may soon shift. 

• 📅 Consumer Confidence (April) – April 29th: Informal surveys point to turmoil in consumer confidence, so a weak report could have massive market effects as fear takes hold.

• 📅 Job Openings (March) – April 29th: The job market has gone largely unchanged in recent months, reinforcing the Fed’s “not yet” approach to rate cuts.

🧩 Everything Else

• Retail shortages may soon echo the pandemic’s early days, business leaders warn. 

• Amazon sellers are hiking prices to accommodate China trade tariffs, which could put the squeeze on delivery-reliant consumers (and Amazon’s bottom line). 

• Walmart is talking out of both sides of its mouth when it comes to DEI, indicating that, for some mega-corps, the raging debate is far from settled. 

• Execs are downplaying outlook expectations across earnings calls this season as uncertainty reigns supreme. 

• China may consider a softened approach to certain sector-specific tariffs, such as those on manufacturing chemicals and medical supplies.