Hello and welcome to Macro Notes, your go-to source for the latest macroeconomic trends, market-moving news, and key indicators to watch. We cut through the noise to bring you actionable insights in just a few minutes.

High-Win Strategies (Sponsored)

Only Trade Stock Setups with 70–90% Win Rates? Here’s How!

High-probability trades start with proven patterns—and these 5 laminated cheatsheets make them easy to find and follow.

Each pattern has a backtested track record of up to 90% win rates.

These tools are built to help traders remove emotion, time their entries, and approach the market with more precision.

Available now for free—limited quantity remaining.

[Click Here to Grab All 5 Cheatsheets]

*The profits and performance shown are not typical and you may lose money. We make no future earnings claims. All trades expressed are from historical, backtested data in order to demonstrate the potential of the system.

The Big Picture

Agriculture

Grounded Exports: U.S. Breeders Watch High-End Pigs Vanish Under China Tariffs

A growing trade dispute with China has upended a once-profitable export market for U.S. livestock breeders. American firms that once supplied high-value breeding pigs and other genetic material to Chinese farms have been forced to cancel shipments and offload animals at a fraction of their intended price.

The disruption follows a recent wave of retaliatory tariffs imposed by China, which caused buyers to back out of contracts. Although the two governments agreed to pause additional tariffs last week, many U.S. exporters say the damage is already done.

In the U.S., the livestock genetics trade had become a quiet but lucrative segment of agricultural exports, supplying premium animals and reproductive material to global buyers.

For years, China was among the most important markets. That relationship is now under pressure, and European competitors, particularly Denmark, are positioned to fill the gap.

This decline shows how fast-changing trade policy can reshape markets built on years of trust and specialized demand. For exporters, the loss is more than short-term revenue. It risks future access and reputation in one of the world’s largest agriculture buyers.

Even with temporary relief, the long-term impact of policy volatility is already prompting buyers to diversify away from U.S. suppliers, raising concerns across other niche export sectors.

Renewable Energy

Clean Energy Faces Major Setback as Tax Shock Threatens U.S. Solar Buildout

A sweeping Republican tax proposal has triggered widespread concern across the U.S. solar sector as key clean energy credits face elimination. The legislation passed in the House would roll back tax benefits that have underpinned the growth of rooftop and utility-scale solar for years.

Industry experts warn that removing these incentives threatens to stall project pipelines and disrupt business models built around consumer leasing equipment, which powers a large portion of the residential solar market.

Beyond rooftops, large-scale solar developments may also take a hit. The bill proposes ending the investment and production tax credits for projects starting construction just two months after enactment. These credits have been instrumental in supporting long-term solar deployment strategies nationwide.

If the current language holds, clean energy developers may be forced to delay or cancel installations due to reduced financial feasibility. That shift could also open space for international competitors, slowing domestic clean energy momentum.

The sector's immediate response points to a broader concern: the stability of U.S. climate policy. For now, the solar industry faces renewed uncertainty at a time when sustained federal support was seen as essential to meeting national energy goals.

Presidential Profit Plays (Sponsored)

6 Stocks to Ride Under The New Administration

The Trump administration’s changes are already redirecting billions in investments.

This shift is opening doors for investors to capture significant gains.

The Free Special Report, Presidential Profits: 6 Stocks to Ride Under The New Administration, uncovers six stocks with strong breakout potential.

Previous presidential picks have rewarded investors handsomely, with gains up to +277%.

The Report is only available for Free until midnight tonight.

Download Presidential Profits now and position your portfolio for success.

Oil & Gas

Oil Under Pressure as Stockpiles Rise and OPEC+ Talks Output

Global oil markets face fresh pressure as expectations grow that OPEC+ may raise production again in July. Talks within the producer group, which includes major exporters like Saudi Arabia and Russia, are ongoing ahead of a formal meeting set for June 1.

The discussions come as new data points to rising crude inventories in the U.S. and weaker-than-expected demand for gasoline and distillates. That combination is fueling concerns that the global supply-demand balance may tilt further toward surplus in the short term.

Behind the scenes, energy analysts suggest the group could implement another moderate supply increase, building on recent monthly additions. At the same time, developments like renewed U.S.–Iran nuclear talks and higher Treasury yields are adding new variables to a market already sensitive to geopolitical risk.

A shift in tone from OPEC+ reflects a pivot away from price protection toward market share, particularly as the U.S. boosts exports and global demand remains uneven.

The potential for increased supply, especially if it arrives while inventories are building, will likely keep oil prices under pressure in the near term.

Market watchers will be focused on whether OPEC+ maintains its current strategy or signals a deeper shift at its upcoming policy meeting.

Metrics to Watch

• SPX to 7,100: Morgan Stanley (somewhat) reversed its bearish perspective, saying that the S&P 500 could hit 7,100 by 2026, with 6,500 possible by the end of 2025. 

• 20-Year Yields: A disappointing Treasury auction begs to differ with Morgan Stanley, however, as 20Y yields hit their highest levels since 2023 (5.129%, to be exact). 

• Insurance Premiums: High housing costs and mortgage rates aren’t the only things stopping prospective homebuyers -  annual homeowners insurance premiums have climbed more than 60% since 2020.

• SALT Cap: Trump’s planned tax bill includes a SALT deduction cap increase to $40,000 for families with half a million in annual income.

Market Movers

🌍 Euro Debt Markets are Hot: American companies are increasingly turning to European bond markets in a bid to boost funding, as lower borrowing costs and regional diversification preferences make the continent an ideal spot to raise cash. Companies including Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) and T-Mobile (NASDAQ: TMUS) have borrowed as much as $45 billion in Euro-denominated debt deals over the past few months, with little sign of slowing.  

💰Private Credit Risks: The hot private credit market, which got its legs mid-2022 as banks clamped down on equity lending, may be in for a shock as the sector faces a unique problem: more investor enthusiasm (and cash) than it can reasonably deploy. The current market strength is built on the back of wide credit spreads, but if (or when) the Fed cuts rates, the spread will tighten and lead to a rapid outflow that could decimate top private credit funds. 

🤖 AI Infrastructure is Growing: OpenAI’s newest data center is fueled by more than $11 billion in new investment funding and will be powered by as many as 50,000 Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) chips. Among other things, this goes to show that AI’s future fight will be in the “real world” as companies battle for computing power, especially as the new center marks a major growth point for OpenAI as it seeks to distance itself from reliance on Microsoft’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) AI infrastructure.

🛳️ Shippers Aren’t Struggling: You might expect global shipping firms to be as downbeat as global trade sentiment, but the opposite is true: although global shipping volume is falling, companies can capitalize on volatility to increase their gross and marginal profits by charging a premium as conditions shift. One company, Hapag-Lloyd (OTCMKTS: HPGLY), saw net bookings jump 50% within days following the 90-day China tariff pause.

Winning Picks (Sponsored)

7 Stock Primed for Double-Digit Jumps in the Next Month - Free Report

Zacks’ stock-ranking system has beaten the S&P 500 with a remarkable +24.2% average annual return since 1988.

Now available: a special free report detailing 7 of the highest-rated stocks on the market today.

All picks are Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys and selected from a proprietary list that includes less than 5% of eligible stocks.

These opportunities are ideal for traders seeking high-upside, short-term positions.

Download the free report and review these picks before placing the next trade

Market Impacts

Global shipping stocks are a fickle bunch: high operating costs and exposure to whipsaw trade policy adjustments mean they’re (individually) highly risky. But, as material conditions develop, the sector could see a boost if Hapag-Lloyd’s experience is anything to go by.

That makes a well-rounded global shipping ETF a strong contender to bet on shifting trade policy conditions, with plenty of volatility to suit swing and options traders. Be warned, however, as with the companies themselves, most global shipping ETFs charge hefty fees due to the wide-ranging investment portfolios that tend to include over-the-counter and foreign market stock picks.

Of the handful of shipping ETFs on the menu, the SonicShares Global Shipping ETF (NYSEARCA: BOAT) is a strong pick that’s well-managed and has weathered this year’s volatility well. Holdings include Hong Kong’s Orient Overseas International (OTCMKTS: OROVY), Korea’s HMM Company, and American shipper International Seaways (NYSE: INSW). Its solid dividend yield helps offset some of its higher-fee downside. 

• Expense Ratio: 0.69%, or $69 per $10,000 invested.

• SEC Yield: 8.27%

• Total Assets: $37.8 million

• YTD Performance: +3.9%

Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 Housing Starts (April) – May 16th: 

• 📅 Preliminary Consumer Sentiment (May) – May 16th:.  

• 📅 Leading Economic Indicators (April) – May 19th:

Everything Else

• “Elite CEOs Don’t Need Earnings Guidance,” according to the WSJ, in a well-developed thesis that argues against Wall Street’s overemphasis on short-term growth. 

• According to the US Department of the Interior, the Trump Administration may soon begin selling deep-sea mining leases in earnest.  

• Hedge funds are on a shorting spree, increasing borrowing costs and driving leverage multiples through the roof. 

• The Fed is getting feisty as it sees alternative lending structures (including private credit) move increasingly outside of its grasp. 

• Emerging markets may be the next bull run as the “sell America” trend continues.