Hello and welcome to Macro Notes, your go-to source for the latest macroeconomic trends, market-moving news, and key indicators to watch. We cut through the noise to bring you actionable insights in just a few minutes.

If you’re not looking for more emails from us, just click here to unsubscribe!

Today, we’ll explore how the U.S. is tightening sanctions on Venezuela, the impact of healthcare layoffs, and Europe’s shifting capital flow—keep reading for more details.

🌍 The Big Picture

Geopolitics

U.S. Revokes Energy Licenses in Venezuela, Tightening Sanctions Pressure

The U.S. government has revoked multiple licenses and waivers that previously allowed international energy companies to operate in Venezuela, escalating pressure on President Nicolas Maduro's administration. The move affects several global players and tightens restrictions on one of the world's most sanctioned oil industries.

Washington directed firms, including Spain's Repsol, France's Maurel et Prom, and Florida-based Global Oil Terminals, to begin winding down operations tied to Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA.

Treasury officials had granted specific authorizations under sanctions rules to allow oil and gas trade in limited circumstances. Those measures are now being rolled back. Global Oil Terminals, for example, must settle outstanding asphalt oil payments and halt business with PDVSA by April 2.

Chevron, Venezuela's largest remaining U.S. oil operator, has received a May 27 deadline to complete its wind-down process, reinforcing the broader policy shift. U.S. officials have tied the revocations to stalled political reforms and a push to return more Venezuelan migrants.

The updated enforcement includes licenses held by Venezuelan gas firms tied to international joint ventures. While no new sanctions were announced, the administrative revocation of permits effectively severs ongoing operations.

This decision limits Venezuela's already-constrained access to global energy markets and signals Washington's renewed focus on using regulatory tools to apply geopolitical pressure.

Healthcare Services

Mass Layoffs Begin in the U.S. Health Agencies as Workforce Overhaul Takes Shape

Federal health agencies began issuing layoff notices as part of a sweeping workforce overhaul that will impact thousands across the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The initiative aims to reduce the department’s workforce by nearly 20,000 positions through layoffs and voluntary separations.

Officials confirmed that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Food and Drug Administration (FDA), National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) are among the hardest hit. The cuts include 3,500 positions at the FDA, 2,400 at the CDC, and over 1,000 roles at the NIH.

Plans also call for consolidating multiple health programs under a newly formed entity—the Administration for a Healthy America. The restructuring will centralize oversight for addiction services, community health centers, and several nationwide initiatives.

State and local health departments are also experiencing ripple effects as HHS withdraws more than $11 billion in emergency public health funds. Some departments have reported job losses and halted programs in response to the funding shift.

Union leaders and health experts have expressed concern about the timing of the cuts, citing ongoing outbreaks and heightened demand for disease surveillance. Worker protections also face changes as new executive orders alter collective bargaining status across multiple federal agencies.

Nationwide, agencies are reassessing how to maintain public health responsibilities with reduced staff and streamlined budgets.

Trading Methods (Sponsored)

Bitcoin Skimming: A Game-Changer for Investors

Bitcoin’s ups and downs have made and lost fortunes. But what if there was a way to outperform BTC—without ever buying it?

Hedge fund titan Larry Benedict has revealed a new approach called "Bitcoin Skimming," a strategy that has outpaced Bitcoin’s returns by as much as 22-to-1.

With the SEC’s latest decision set to shake up crypto markets, now is the perfect time to discover how this works.

Click here to see the full details before this opportunity disappears.

Global Markets

Capital Moves East: ETF Surge Signals Strategic Shift to Europe

U.S. investors directed over $10 billion into European equity ETFs in the first quarter, marking the largest quarterly inflow on record. The surge reflects a sharp pivot in global capital allocation as policy developments reshape investment priorities.

The capital moved away from dominant U.S. tech names into international markets, with Europe emerging as a primary beneficiary. Analysts attribute the shift to deregulation initiatives in several European economies and investor concerns over trade uncertainty in the U.S. That combination has opened the door for renewed interest in diversified global holdings.

ETFs tracking German and pan-European equities recorded substantial growth, with the iShares MSCI Germany ETF doubling its assets under management. Aerospace and defense ETFs also captured inflows, signaling investor confidence in Europe's military spending trajectory.

The sentiment surrounding European equities has reversed sharply from previous years. The sector saw prolonged outflows following geopolitical tensions and war-related instability, but investor appetite has since rebounded as stability returns to key markets.

Fund managers cite regulatory clarity, new fiscal leadership, and an improving economic outlook as key drivers behind the inflow. Broader diversification trends also encourage U.S. investors to rebalance exposure internationally.

Market strategists now view European allocations as a meaningful component of portfolio reallocation, responding to evolving global risk factors and policy headwinds.

📊 Metrics to Watch

• Core Inflation: The Fed’s preferred inflation metric, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, came in hotter than expected at 2.8%, a 0.4% increase. 

• Consumer Spending: Consumer spending also slowed, hitting 0.4% growth compared to 0.5% forecasted.  

• Personal Income: Household income growth doubled estimates at 0.8%, offering a brief silver lining to an otherwise gloomy February economic report. 

• Savings Rate: Personal savings rates ticked up to 4.6%, aligned with higher income rates, slowed spending, and generally pessimistic consumer attitudes.

🚀 Market Movers

🏦 The Fed’s Outlook: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-inflation report remarks came in surprisingly dovish considering widespread pessimism; he asserted that the Trump administration’s tariff regime would have only a “transitory” effect on inflation. 

✂️ Rate Cuts: Powell’s dovish attitude indicates a greater likelihood that 2025 will see two consecutive rate cuts, though bearish analysts maintain their single-cut outlook. CME’s FedWatch tool projects overwhelming odds that rates will remain the same through May, with a 64% chance we see a rate cut in June. 

💰Tariffs: Wednesday, April 2nd, marks the Trump admin’s “Liberation Day,” the nom de guerre of tariff implementation. President Trump scaled back tariff talks somewhat throughout the week, claiming a narrowed focus on reciprocal tariffs with countries enjoying a heavy trade surplus with the U.S. rather than the broad-brush approach many fear.

🔒 Private Markets: BlackRock chair and CEO Larry Fink said that the future of diversified investment lies in a 50/30/20 split of stocks, bonds, and private assets. Those alternative assets, like private credit, institutional real estate investment, infrastructure, and the like, are historically off-limits to retail investors, considering most demand accredited investor status. Fink and BlackRock seem to be pushing for a paradigm shift via proprietary funds and ETFs. 

Domestic Demand (Sponsored)

On Behalf of Azincourt Energy Corp

The U.S. Needs Uranium—And This Small-Cap Could Benefit

Ninety percent of America’s uranium is imported. With the US scrambling to rebuild domestic supply, Canadian uranium companies are in prime position.

One small-cap stock could be set to benefit.

*Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular Issuer from one referenced date to another represent an arbitrarily chosen time period and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that Issuer and are of no predictive value. Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for YOUR further investigation; they are NOT stock recommendations or constitute an offer or sale of the referenced securities.

⚡ Market Impacts

• 📈 Equities: Stocks closed March with their worst quarter since 2022, falling 10% from the February high even as March 31st eked out a green day, gaining 0.67%. Tariffs, high inflation, and more are weighing on investors’ minds - but that also means it won’t take much to pull the S&P 500 out of correction territory if, for example, tariff impacts are less than feared.  

• 💵 Bonds: Long-term Treasuries have been battered for over five years, peaking on March 9th, 2020, immediately before the low-interest-rate regime crushed bond pricing. However, that trend may soon reverse as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) closed 20205’s first quarter with a 4.2% gain compared to the S&P 500’s 5% drop.

• 💱 Currencies: The International Money Fund released a report this week revealing that the US dollar is rapidly losing ground as the globe’s top reserve currency, with global central bank holdings dropping by $59 billion to $6.63 trillion. The Japanese yen, British pound, and old-fashioned gold bullion largely made up the difference in central banks’ coffers.

• 🌽 Commodities: Speaking of gold, the precious metal hit a new high of $3,133 as traders continued weighing tariff impacts, demonstrating that central banks aren’t the only institutions fleeing the US dollar’s umbrella. Even retail traders are getting in on the action as gold-backed ETF inflows increased 6% this year.

🗓️ Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 U.S. Trade Deficit – April 2nd: February’s trade deficit report comes in on an auspicious day, as Wednesday also marks Trump’s tariff implementation date.

• 📅 Unemployment – April 4th: March’s unemployment rate is projected to remain roughly the same, so news in either direction could have outsized market effects.  

• 📅 Imports/Exports – April 3rd: Though they won’t reflect tariff impacts, Thursday’s net import/export numbers will be an important baseline of comparison.

🧩 Everything Else

• Automotives firms already suffer from a planned 25% tariff, but flagging EV emphasis could further harm the industry.

• The U.S. IPO market hasn’t performed well since 2021, when 311 companies listed, and recent poor listing performance will only reduce company interest in going public. 

• Chinese factory production is in overdrive as manufacturers race to get ahead of trade tariffs.

• U.S. tax collection rates are falling, increasing concern over debt ceiling pressure. 

• The New York Fed released a report analyzing why personal credit card rates are so high. The answer? Banks are setting rates with the worst-case economic scenario in mind, coupled with sky-high advertising costs demanding increased interest income as an offset.