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US Economy Grows, But Will Tariffs and Deficits Hold It Back?

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Today, we’ll look into…

Uranium Sector (Sponsored)

On Behalf of Azincourt Energy Corp

A junior miner with high-grade uranium assets in Canada’s Athabasca Basin and Central Mineral Belt is making moves.

Plans are in motion, and the uranium market is heating up.

*Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular Issuer from one referenced date to another represent an arbitrarily chosen time period and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that Issuer and are of no predictive value. Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for YOUR further investigation; they are NOT stock recommendations or constitute an offer or sale of the referenced securities.

🌍 The Big Picture

Oil Markets

U.S. Oil Output Faces Geological Headwinds as Permian Basin Nears Saturation

U.S. oil production faces mounting geological challenges as the once-explosive growth from the Permian Basin begins to slow. Industry experts are increasingly warning that the nation’s top oilfield may be nearing its peak output after years of relentless drilling.

The Permian, which helped transform the U.S. into the world’s largest oil producer, shows exhaustion. Companies have drilled through much of the core areas in the Midland and Delaware subbasins, forcing exploration into lower-quality zones. That shift produces more water and gas and less oil, reducing efficiency and raising costs.

While output from the Permian remains high—topping 6.5 million barrels per day—the pace of growth is slowing. Industry projections place 2025 growth at levels not seen since the COVID-19 slowdown.

This slowdown comes as global demand remains steady and U.S. policymakers push for energy independence. A potential production plateau could impact domestic fuel prices and America’s influence in international energy markets.

Geological limits are not new to the oil industry, but the pace at which the Permian has matured raises urgent questions. As producers contend with declining well productivity and higher operational costs, the era of easy shale gains may be closing.

Global Trade

Washington’s New Auto Tariffs Trigger Retaliatory Warnings

The United States faces growing resistance from key allies after implementing a 25% tariff on imported automobiles. The policy, aimed at strengthening domestic production, has already begun reshaping global trade conversations and pressuring international automakers.

Japan, whose auto exports make up more than a quarter of its shipments to the U.S., warned that uniform tariffs may harm longstanding economic ties. Canadian leaders also condemned the move, calling it a direct threat to their auto sector, which remains tightly integrated with U.S. manufacturing.

Automobiles are Canada’s second-largest export, and regions like Ontario, home to major auto factories, stand particularly exposed. Both countries signaled intentions to impose reciprocal tariffs that could disrupt North American supply chains and trigger price volatility.

Markets responded immediately. Shares of automakers operating in North America and Japan slid as investors weighed the potential for prolonged trade friction. The tariff policy adds uncertainty across industries grappling with elevated costs and unpredictable consumer demand.

While the White House argues that the measure is meant to secure American jobs and industrial capacity, trading partners assess countermeasures. The broader economic impact remains unclear, but the diplomatic strain is intensifying.

Washington is facing tensions with two key trade partners as industries brace for impacts.

Smart Screen Solutions (Sponsored)

A tech innovator could enable the mass commercialization of MicroLED displays, securing a partnership with Taiwan’s leading manufacturer.

Can this under-the-radar company follow in OLED’s footsteps?

*Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular Issuer from one referenced date to another represent an arbitrarily chosen time period and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that Issuer and are of no predictive value. Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for YOUR further investigation; they are NOT stock recommendations or constitute an offer or sale of the referenced securities.

Aviation Industry

Airlines Trim Schedules Amid Growing Signs of Consumer Spending Strain

Passenger airlines in the U.S. are scaling back growth projections as shifting economic signals weigh on consumer and corporate travel. After a robust start to the year, carriers are responding to weakening demand with trimmed schedules and revised earnings outlooks.

Rising economic uncertainty, fueled by new tariffs and reduced government spending, has led travelers to rethink discretionary spending. Recent cuts to spring and summer flight capacity across major carriers reflect growing caution, with airlines seeking to preserve fares and avoid excess inventory.

Recent data shows consumer confidence dipped to a multi-year low, while ticket sales through U.S. travel agencies dropped sharply in February. Airlines Reporting Corp noted declines in business and leisure bookings, a reversal from the January surge.

While international and premium travel categories have remained relatively stable, domestic demand appears more sensitive to economic shifts. Carriers also navigate reputational setbacks from recent safety incidents, adding to the industry's near-term challenges.

Passenger volume growth has slowed, and airport throughput data from the Transportation Security Administration shows a plateau after months of gains in March. The broader aviation sector is now watching closely for signs of stabilization or further contraction as summer approaches.

📊 Metrics to Watch

  • GDP: Wednesday’s GDP report saw the U.S. economy grow 2.4% to close out 2024, but some economists warn that 2025’s first quarter could be as low as 1.5%.

  • Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates barely budged over the past month, stubbornly hovering around 7%.  

  • Trade Deficit: The current U.S. trade deficit was higher than expected at $147.9 billion, contributing to reduced GDP growth expectations.

  • Durable Goods: Durable goods orders accelerated by nearly 1% as US-based manufacturers rushed to get ahead of imminent steel and aluminum tariffs.

🚀 Market Movers

🎯 Benchmark Price Targets: Barclays downgraded its end-of-year S&P 500 price target by more than 10% to 5,900, anticipating that “earnings [will] take a hit as tariffs contribute to material slowing in U.S. activity.”  

🏛️Real Estate: Though February’s pending home sale numbers beat expectations, economists warn that the traditionally strong spring homebuying season won’t keep pace. Average monthly mortgage payments are nearly $3,000, pricing many buyers out of the market as mortgage rates remain elevated. 

🚢 Global Freight: Proposed service fees on Chinese freight ships could cause global trade to crawl to a standstill (and domestic prices to spike), as a proposed policy could levy bills as high as $1 million on Chinese vessels docking at U.S. ports.

🌾 Agriculture: Agriculture and farming are some of the biggest American export sectors, sending as much as $170.5 billion in goods internationally in 2025. This puts a target on farmers’ backs as countries consider retaliatory tariffs, putting tremendous pressure on already-thin agricultural profit margins.

A Bold New Era (Sponsored)

Every investor in America is trying to figure out what Musk will do in Washington, D.C., in the coming weeks.

One Boston-based think tank – who has studied Elon’s work for decades – is stepping forward to share what they’ve found.

They believe his TRUE plan is far more radical than anyone realizes. It could change the way you live, work, get paid, and collect Social Security…

Market Impacts

Equities: The week’s big news included a planned 25% tariff on foreign automotive and car part imports, putting downward pressure on companies like Ford (NYSE:F), Stellantis (NYSE:STLA), and General Motors (NYSE:GM). 

Bonds: Increased intermediate- and long-term Treasury yields sent investors flocking to Treasury-backed ETFs; mid-term and longer-maturity bond ETFs largely fell out of favor following 2022’s inverted yield curve, but that trend seems to be reversing. 

Currencies: The Yen saw improved positioning against the U.S. Dollar, gaining about 4% this week. The renewed strength comes from anticipated Bank of Japan interest rate hikes following higher-than-expected inflation numbers. 

Commodities: An analyst at the Price Futures Group called copper “the new crude oil” and the “new hottest commodity on the globe” as domestic supplies run thin. America imports 44% of its annual copper consumption, and tariffs could cause the commodity’s prices to spike soon.

🗓️ Key Indicators to Watch

  • 📅 Chicago Business Barometer – March 31st: The Barometer ticked off two consecutive monthly gains, but that could change as pessimism increases.

  • 📅 Auto Sales – April 1st: Expect all eyes to be on March’s sales states as auto tariffs loom.

  • 📅 February Job Openings – April 1st: Jobless claims fell in recent weeks, but this report will illuminate the labor market’s true strength.

🧩 Everything Else

  • Tesla is one of the few automotive stocks (thus far) unaffected by the auto tariff announcement, gaining on Thursday even as its competitors cratered.

  • Average household incomes rose 4.6% in 2024’s final quarter, answering whether credit card spending or discretionary income fueled the surprisingly strong holiday sales season. 

  • President Trump is warning automakers not to raise prices too steeply in reaction to tariffs, emphasizing the intention of the trade tax to on-shore manufacturing. 

  • Steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs laid off 600 employees at a Michigan production factory, citing "the current reality of weak automotive production in the U.S."

  • Chinese export firms may begin courting Russian consumers to compensate for U.S. consumer losses.

That’s it for today’s edition—thanks for reading! Reply to this email with any feedback or let me know which macro trends or markets you’d like me to cover next.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Macro Notes