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Swiss Franc Surpasses US Dollar Amid Recession Fears

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Today, we explore the impact of tariffs on U.S. retailers, China's LNG shifts, and falling U.S. crude oil prices. Keep reading for more details.

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*Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular Issuer from one referenced date to another represent an arbitrarily chosen time period and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that Issuer and are of no predictive value. Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for YOUR further investigation; they are NOT stock recommendations or constitute an offer or sale of the referenced securities.

🌍 The Big Picture

Retail

US Apparel Retailers Freeze Activity as Tariffs Pressure Supply Chains

Clothing and footwear retailers across the United States have begun delaying orders, pausing hiring, and reassessing production schedules as tariffs on imports from Vietnam and China take effect. The new measures require importers to absorb significantly higher costs or raise retail prices, adding pressure to already thin margins across the industry.

Several brands, including small- and mid-sized labels, report halting upcoming purchase orders to avoid overcommitting ahead of the policy shift. These companies rely heavily on Vietnam and China for apparel and footwear production. Vietnam remains the second-largest supplier of clothing and shoes to the US, following China.

Some retailers have flagged challenges around shifting sourcing to other regions, citing long production lead times, specialized manufacturing requirements, and concerns over domestic quality control. For many, moving operations outside of Asia presents logistical and financial hurdles that are not easily overcome.

Businesses focused on athletic wear, outerwear, and accessories say the tariff changes directly impact seasonal inventory planning. Delays now could result in missing major retail periods later this year, including back-to-school and holiday shopping cycles.

The new trade measures arrive when many retailers face macroeconomic headwinds, including inflation and shifting consumer demand. As the tariffs roll out, companies across the sector continue to monitor developments while making near-term operational adjustments.

Commodities

China Reroutes American LNG to Europe as Import Costs Climb

China’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) buyers are reselling shipments from the United States as tariffs raise the cost of imports. The adjustment comes as Beijing activates a new round of reciprocal levies, increasing the tariff rate on all U.S. goods, including LNG, beginning April 10.

Recent customs data shows that China did not import U.S. LNG in March. Before these changes, the U.S. accounted for roughly 5% of China’s LNG supply. Industry sources indicate that several Chinese buyers have redirected shipments toward European and other Asian markets in response to the tariff shift.

Chinese importers began moving cargoes ahead of the latest levies, with more resales expected throughout April. Commercial operations at new long-term LNG supply agreements between U.S. producers and Chinese firms are also starting this month, increasing volumes at a time of falling domestic demand.

European buyers have emerged as key alternative recipients. Market conditions currently favor shipments to Europe due to closer proximity and a more favorable pricing structure. LNG prices in Europe recently hovered around $12 per million British thermal units, while buyers in China have expressed caution over higher-priced imports.

Several Chinese companies, including state-owned entities, have reportedly adjusted their supply strategies by redirecting U.S.-sourced LNG. Industry participants cite tariff-related price increases and weaker seasonal demand as driving factors.

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Oil Markets

Policy Pressure Builds as U.S. Crude Dips Into Warning Zone

U.S. crude oil prices fell below $60 per barrel this week, marking the lowest level since April 2021 and raising concerns across the energy sector. The brief drop in front-month NYMEX WTI contracts came amid ongoing global demand uncertainty and new trade tensions linked to recent tariff policy changes.

The decline follows an unexpected production volume increase from OPEC, coupled with new tariffs from the U.S. and corresponding trade actions from China, adding pressure to global commodities markets.

Industry data shows that U.S. oil production stands near 13.6 million barrels per day, a notable increase from April 2021. Current production levels reflect a sustained post-pandemic recovery, although new pricing pressures may impact output if the trend persists.

Market analysts have historically cited $60 as a key level at which U.S. producers evaluate drilling economics. According to recent estimates, the average breakeven price for U.S. oil projects is around $62 per barrel. A prolonged period below that level could prompt reductions in activity, particularly in regions outside the Permian Basin.

Some producers may maintain drilling schedules while deferring completions to monitor market conditions. This strategy allows flexibility without committing new volumes to an uncertain pricing environment.

While pricing has fluctuated sharply in recent sessions, the industry continues assessing the longer-term implications of market shifts driven by economic fundamentals and policy decisions.

📊 Metrics to Watch

  • China Trade Deficit: Though President Trump claimed a $1 trillion trade deficit with China, most economists say the number is closer to $263 billion. Either way, expect this metric to be a major point of contention as tariff wars continue.

  • Overseas Investment: As much as 70% of capital moving throughout U.S. financial systems originate from foreign investors. This substantial sum could drop if those entities begin routing their cash to more economically friendly regions. 

  • Recession Likelihood: Goldman Sachs raised their recession probability for the following 12 months to 45%, up from 35%. The typical likelihood around “normal” economic periods sits around 15%.

  • Rate Cuts: CME’s FedWatch tool points to a 60% likelihood of rate cuts in May, a staggering increase from the 14% odds posted just last week.

🚀 Market Movers

🏡 Housing Inventory: Housing inventory tends to experience a bullwhip effect, mostly since lead time on new developments is measured in months (if not years). We’re reaching the oversupply side of the equation now, with development companies sitting on more than 110,000 new builds without buyers. The builders are offering a range of incentives, like mortgage buydowns and closing cost credits, but the oversupply spike may be a leading indicator of housing market trouble to come.
🪨 Mineral Management: China’s retaliatory tariffs aren’t the nation's only action in response to Trump’s trade tax - though their other policy move went largely unnoticed. China took direct supply chain action on U.S. manufacturing, restricting the export of key minerals like tungsten, indium, and terbium. These and similar minerals are key ingredients in a range of high-tech (and key) goods, including EVs, solar paneling, and even major defense assets like fighter jets.   

🌐 Global Equities: Investors fleeing U.S. stocks began parking a fair portion of cash in overseas equities as ex-US equity fund inflows climbed and outperformed U.S. markets. Of note, LATAM market funds generated 13.2% in 2025’s first quarter, foreign large value funds were up 9.5%, European and China funds hovered slightly north of 9%, and foreign large blend funds returned 6.6%.  

🏆 Top 5 Funds: The first quarter’s best-performing fund categories may come as a surprise but also point to a potential sea change as investors fight volatility and flee to (relative) safety. The highest-performing fund category was equity precious metals with a whopping 29.3% return, followed by LATAM stock (13.2%), commodities-focused funds (10.5%), foreign large value (9.5%), and European stock (9.4%).

Uranium Market (Sponsored)

On Behalf of Azincourt Energy Corp

On Behalf of Azincourt Energy Corp

And the world’s wealthiest, most powerful investors are moving in—Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and Sam Altman.

They’ve made their billions in tech revolutions like Amazon, Microsoft, and OpenAI. Now, they’re betting big on nuclear energy.

  • Gates: His Natrium reactor secured $3 billion in funding.

  • Bezos: Backing a fusion energy startup.

  • Altman: Building reactors powered by nuclear waste.

Governments are following suit. The US just poured $6 billion into nuclear energy, while the Trump administration is fast-tracking policies to boost domestic uranium production.

For investors, this is a perfect storm.

The last uranium boom turned a tiny $0.60 stock into a $3.11 billion powerhouse.

The next one could be happening right now.

*Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular Issuer from one referenced date to another represent an arbitrarily chosen time period and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that Issuer and are of no predictive value. Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for YOUR further investigation; they are NOT stock recommendations or constitute an offer or sale of the referenced securities.

Market Impacts

  • 📈 Equities: Almost without exception, major boutique firms and bulge-bracket banks are slashing S&P 500 price targets and taking a uniformly bearish outlook. The most recent drops include Oppenheimer & Co., dropping its SPX target to 5,950 from 7,100, and Morgan Stanley warns that the index could drop another 7 - 8% if tariffs aren’t rolled back rapidly. In a particularly dire warning, an Oppenheimer & Co analyst said current conditions “seemingly [project] negative outcomes to infinity.

  • 💵 Bonds: 60% of the most popular fund categories (measured by net inflow) were bonds in 2025’s first quarter, with ultrashort funds leading the pack at $28.6 billion in inflows and intermediate core bond funds coming in a distant second at $12.8 billion in inflows. Expect the flight to ultrashort duration securities to continue as yields remain solid and equity volatility increases. 

  • 💱 Currencies: Global recession concerns saw safe-haven Swiss francs beating out the US dollar across global currency exchanges. The dollar hit its lowest point in over six months against the franc, trading at 1:0.85720 at its trough.

  • 🌽 Commodities:  President Trump plans to review a major proposed commodities deal in the coming weeks. During the Biden administration, officials blocked a proposed Japanese acquisition of major steel manufacturer United States Steel (NYSE:X). While the outcome hinges, in part, on trade deal talks planned with Japanese leadership in the coming days, expect the deal to serve as a barometer of just how tough Trump plans to be with nations willing to come to the bargaining table.   

🗓️ Key Indicators to Watch

  • 📅 March Consumer Price Index – April 10th: Economists project a 2.6% year-over-year increase, down slightly from February.

  • 📅 April Initial Jobless Claims – April 10th: The first major report since sweeping Federal layoffs, a bleak report could prove disastrous to an already shaky economic picture.

  • 📅 First-Quarter Earnings Reports – April 11th: Big banks and financial service firms like BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) kick off earnings season later this week.

🧩 Everything Else

  • Trump’s billionaire backers are increasingly speaking out against the president’s tariff regime. 

  • “House-poor” Americans have more capital than ever locked away in home equity, and the system is starting to crack. 

  • Stock struggles are making Trump tax cut prospects less likely while increasing the odds of a debt-ceiling standoff. 

  • For those struggling to make sense of the news, this “Tariff 101” explainer does a good job objectively breaking down the complex topic.

  • Bucking his peers, America’s wealthiest banker says that Trump’s “shock-and-awe” tactics are exactly what the doctor ordered to realign the world economy. 

That’s it for today’s edition—thanks for reading! Reply to this email with any feedback or let me know which macro trends or markets you’d like me to cover next.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Macro Notes