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Tariff Talk That Actually Helps Your Wallet

Author

Noah Zelvis
October 08, 2025

Washington’s on mute, but tariffs are cranked to eleven. New sector hits, new country deals, and a chip plan, while the official data calendar is… a blank page.

We’ll lay out where duties stand, prices you actually pay, and a low-drama plan for your portfolio.

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The 60-Second Tariff Roundup

  • EU, Japan, South Korea: Broadly sitting near 15% after fresh deals. Auto/parts are also around 15%.

  • Canada ~35% and Mexico ~25%: Higher headlines, but USMCA lets compliant goods in duty-free; energy is closer to 10%.

  • China: Currently 30% after a spring scare; next milestone in November talks.

  • Taiwan & Vietnam: 20% baseline while talks continue; Vietnam gets 40% on goods flagged for transshipment.

  • U.K.: Floor near 10% with quirks (e.g., the first ~100k vehicles at 10%, then 25%).

  • India: A punchy 50% as of late August across a range of consumer exports.

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Sector Hot Spots You’ll Notice First

  • Steel & Aluminum: 50% on finished metal products. Good for domestic mills, tougher for import-heavy manufacturers.

  • Autos & Heavy Trucks: 25% on imported vehicles/parts; heavy trucks at 25% from Oct 1 (not every country hit thanks to deals).

  • Furniture & Cabinets: From Oct 1, 50% on kitchen/bath cabinets and vanities; 30% on upholstered furniture. Remodel math just changed.

  • Pharma (Branded/Patented): 100% if a company isn’t building U.S. plants, with a Commerce-run carve-out process. Generics aren’t targeted.

  • Copper Products: 50% (raw copper excluded).

  • Semiconductors: Floated 1:1 rule, make as many chips in the U.S. as your customers import, or face tariffs. Likely grace periods, big compliance lift.

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The Shutdown Twist

The scoreboard is dim (no BLS jobs or CPI while the lights are off), but tariff machinery keeps humming.

Customs still collects, and trade agencies keep moving on processes already in flight.

Fewer data points mean markets overreact to speeches and private proxies. Translation: more wiggles, same underlying tariff story.

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What This Means For Prices

  • Near-Term: Many companies are buffered with pre-tariff inventory and margin absorption.

    That cushion is thinner. Expect gradual price creep in metal-heavy goods (appliances, machinery), select furniture categories, and some trucks.

  • Pharma: Scary headline, but many innovators already have U.S. capacity or deals capping tariffs near ~15% (EU/Japan). Impact will be product-specific, not aisle-wide.

  • Chips: The 1:1 idea is a slow boil. Short-term: compliance friction. Medium-term: more domestic orders, different pricing power.

What This Means For The Fed

Tariff pass-through tends to be staggered, not a one-day spike. The Fed just cut and called policy “modestly restrictive,” leaving room to trim again as jobs soften.

Tariffs are a speed bump, not (yet) a wall. Expect borrowing costs to drift lower even as certain goods creep higher in price.

That mix favors steady cash generators with pricing power.

Your Simple Game Plan

  • Prefer Domestic Content: U.S. sourcing and USMCA-compliant supply chains dodge more pain.

  • Own Pricing Power: Brands that can nudge price without losing share will protect margins as import costs rise.

  • Mind Metal Exposure: Manufacturers with captive or contracted domestic steel/aluminum beat spot importers.

  • Stage Entries: Tariff headlines pop and fade. Buy quality beneficiaries in slices, not gulps.

  • Household Moves: If you’re mid-remodel, lock quotes and timelines now; for big furniture buys, expect promos now and firmer prices later.

Quick Takeaways

  • New tariffs are sticky but sector-specific (furniture, trucks, chips, finished metals).

  • The proposed chip 1:1 rule could quietly remap supply chains over time.

  • Shutdown delays the data, not the duties; volatility ≠ trend change.

  • Favor domestic capacity + pricing power, and keep entries staggered.

Top Picks

GlobalFoundries (NASDAQ: GFS)

If buyers need to balance imports with U.S. output, fabs with existing domestic capacity are first in line.

GFS focuses on specialty nodes (RF, power, auto, industrial) where re-qualification is slow and switching costs are high, perfect conditions for durable pricing.

CHIPS Act grants defray capex, and a 1:1 regime would nudge customers to commit longer.

Expect near-term noise from customer mix; structurally, reshoring is a strong tailwind for utilization and backlog visibility.

American Woodmark (NASDAQ: AMWD)

Cabinets/vanities just got a 50% tariff if imported. AMWD designs and builds largely in the U.S., selling through big-box and builder channels.

As import price gaps widen, AMWD can win share even if volumes wobble, using good-better-best assortments and selective price actions to defend margins.

Lower rates help housing churn and remodel intent; US-made supply is the differentiator when backorders and landed costs pinch competitors.

Allison Transmission (NYSE: ALSN)

Heavy-truck imports at 25% tilt the table toward North American builds. A

llison’s niche in vocational and defense gearboxes, plus a sticky aftermarket, throws off reliable free cash flow through cycles.

If fleets refresh, Allison participates; if they pause, defense and service help smooth results. This story is exposed to the cycle, but buffered by high switching costs and parts revenue.

Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF)

With 50% on finished steel products, domestic mills regain some pricing power.

CLF’s mine-to-metal integration and auto exposure offer operating leverage as import competition thins.

Watch contract resets with automakers and appliances, spread improvement drops quickly to the bottom line.

It’s still steel, so size positions sanely, but policy winds and infrastructure/reshoring demand skew the risk-reward favorably.

Risk Management

  1. Add in thirds on tariff beneficiaries; don’t chase day-one pops.

  2. Downsize import-reliant names until exemptions or ratios clarify.

  3. Mark your calendar: Supreme Court arguments in November. Even if global levies shift, sector-specific tariffs (metal, trucks, furniture) tend to be on firmer legal ground.

The government may be on pause, but tariffs are the plot line.

Stick with domestic content, real pricing power, and sturdy cash flow, and let the headline noise be background music, not your investment strategy.

That’s it for today’s edition—thanks for reading! Reply to this email with any feedback or let me know which macro trends or markets you’d like me to cover next.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Macro Notes