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The Big Picture

Commodities

Domestic Mining Gains Traction as U.S. Leans Into Copper, Gold Independence 

A shift in federal policy and commodity prices is quietly reshaping America’s approach to mineral security.

As copper prices rise more than 14% in a month and 20% over the year, U.S. mining assets are regaining strategic significance, particularly in states like Alaska, where undeveloped copper-gold reserves remain abundant.

Federal proposals to impose a 50% tariff on foreign copper imports have stirred interest in underutilized domestic projects.

At the same time, policymakers are emphasizing supply chain independence across critical sectors like energy, manufacturing, and defense that all rely on stable access to metals like copper and gold.

In Alaska, the Whistler project, located roughly 100 miles from Anchorage, contains over 1 billion pounds of copper and nearly 4 million ounces of gold, according to previously reported resource estimates.

These volumes reflect a broader opportunity across the U.S. to re-anchor sourcing strategies around homegrown supply.

Infrastructure access, permitting stability, and supportive state policy are becoming essential levers.

Investments in mining infrastructure are increasingly viewed through a strategic lens.

Rather than depend on overseas supply routes, federal and state initiatives suggest a growing appetite for domestic production.

Rising global demand, combined with geopolitical friction, is shifting exploration from speculative to operational.

While most projects remain early-stage, the policy and pricing environment may be setting the stage for a new era in U.S. resource development, one where the country’s vast underground reserves move from dormant to decisive.

Transportation

U.S. Pushes Forward on Clean Aviation with State-Backed Fuel Boom

A new wave of federal and state-level support is reshaping the outlook for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in the U.S., with implications that extend far beyond the energy sector.

Lawmakers are now leaning into SAF as a pillar of long-term industrial and environmental planning.

Washington has extended SAF tax credits through 2029, providing producers a critical window to scale operations.

Though the credit value has been adjusted and some direct funding trimmed, the long-term visibility offers stability for infrastructure investment.

SAF production in the U.S. has already surged from 5,000 to over 30,000 barrels per day in under 14 months.

States aren’t waiting around.

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Illinois have already passed tax incentives, while others like New York and Wisconsin are exploring domestic sourcing rules to tie SAF demand to local supply chains.

That could benefit agricultural producers and rural economies, giving farmers access to a new, energy-adjacent market.

Airlines are targeting net-zero emissions by 2050, with SAF expected to carry a majority of that weight.

Policy changes in the U.S. may not guarantee industry dominance, but they solidify America’s role as a key player in clean aviation development.

As global markets shift toward carbon-conscious transport, the U.S. is using tax frameworks and regulatory clarity to keep clean fuel innovation grounded in domestic soil.

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Finance

With Pressure Mounting, the U.S. Dollar Struggles to Find Its Footing 

The U.S. dollar is under pressure as investors digest a mix of inflation data, central bank uncertainty, and uneven macroeconomic signals.

The Dollar Index (DXY), a broad measure of the greenback’s strength against major currencies, remains stuck below the key 98 level.

Recent cooling in momentum has sparked new questions about the currency’s role in a shifting global environment.

While talk of tariffs and political pressure may stir headlines, the more structural concern is how the dollar is responding to weakening signals from the U.S. economy.

With inflation data and bank earnings set to hit this week, traders are watching for confirmation on whether the economy is slowing in a meaningful way.

Banking sector results, especially from top lenders like JPMorgan and Citigroup, will serve as a real-time gauge of domestic financial strength.

Any signs of softness could feed into expectations of slower growth and, in turn, weaken dollar support.

The dollar has long been a default signal of confidence in U.S. policy and institutional stability.

But when policy visibility blurs and inflation prints remain uncertain, currency strength can fade even without a crisis.

Metrics to Watch

• Earnings Watch: S&P 500 companies are expected to post just 4.8% Q2 profit growth, the weakest since 2023, as banks kick off earnings season this week.

• Tariff Pressure: Trump confirmed 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico goods effective Aug. 1, with retaliation threats already surfacing from both sides.

• Recession Risk Falls: Economists cut the 12-month recession odds to 33%, down from 45% in April, as job growth and spending show surprising resilience.

• Rate Cut Doubts: Fed officials are backing off July rate cuts, citing inflation uncertainty tied to fresh tariff rounds and rising customs duties.

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Market Movers

💥 Trump Escalates Tariff War on Mexico and the EU: A new round of 30% tariffs hits two of America’s largest trading partners starting August 1.

While meant to pressure officials into last-minute concessions, the move sparked threats of EU retaliation and rattled supply chain forecasts heading into Q3.

🧮 Economists Dial Back Inflation Expectations: Despite tariff fears, core inflation came in at just 2.8% in May, the lowest in four years.

WSJ’s economist survey now expects 3.0% inflation by year-end, down from 3.6% in April. That said, tariffs could still fuel a second-half spike if inventories run dry.

🌍 Singapore Beats GDP Forecasts Despite Tariff Drag: Singapore’s economy grew 4.3% YoY in Q2, smashing expectations thanks to a rebound in manufacturing.

But its government flagged “significant uncertainty” in the second half as global trade tensions remain unresolved. Notably, Singapore hasn’t received a Trump tariff letter — yet.

📉 Fed’s Credibility Under Pressure as Trump Eyes Powell’s Replacement: As Trump publicly calls for rate cuts while threatening Powell’s job, the Fed is scrambling to maintain its independence.

Speculation is growing that Trump could nominate economic loyalists like Scott Bessent or Kevin Hassett to steer the central bank in 2026.

Market Impacts

Equities: Google’s $2.4 billion AI talent acquisition from Windsurf has reignited talk of “acqui-hiring” as a strategic edge in the AI arms race. 

With Meta and Microsoft ramping up similar poaching efforts, markets are viewing top-tier AI talent as the next major driver of tech valuation, and possibly the next M&A bubble.

Bonds: Treasury yields jumped after Trump imposed 35% tariffs on Canada and hinted at a broader 15–20% global blanket levy. 

The 10-year yield climbed to 4.417% (+7 bps), the 30-year to 4.954% (+9 bps), and the 2-year to 3.889% (+2 bps) as investors priced in fresh inflation risk and delayed rate-cut timing.

Currencies: The euro and peso dipped on Trump’s 30% tariff threats, while the dollar stayed broadly stable.

DXY ended slightly lower at 97.80 (-0.06%), as investors waited on this week’s U.S. CPI and China GDP data before placing bigger bets on policy direction.

Commodities: Crude edged higher as Brent hit $70.44 and WTI climbed to $68.50, amid geopolitical friction over Russia and a potential U.S. sanctions package.

Still, Saudi Arabia’s quota-busting output and unresolved tariff negotiations kept a cap on gains despite summer demand tailwinds.

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Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 CPI Report – Tuesday, July 15: The most critical print of the summer. June inflation is expected to reaccelerate slightly to 2.7% YoY, with core CPI seen ticking back up to 3.0%. A hot number could slam the door on July rate cut hopes.

• 📅 PPI & Industrial Data – Wednesday, July 16: Producer prices and factory output round out the inflation picture. If pipeline costs rise, the Fed may pivot to a higher-for-longer stance.

• 📅 Retail Sales & Jobless Claims – Thursday, July 17: Retail spending is expected to rebound after May’s plunge. Meanwhile, jobless claims will show if softening labor demand is spreading or stabilizing.

Everything Else

• Singapore’s economy unexpectedly accelerated 4.3% last quarter, but tariff uncertainty still clouds the second half outlook, according to the country’s Ministry of Trade.

• The EU is holding off on retaliatory tariffs for now, but that could change quickly if August 1 trade deadlines aren’t met.

• Kraft Heinz is reportedly preparing to spin off several legacy brands in a post-pandemic cost-saving shake-up, including Velveeta and Lunchables.

• Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee says it’s too soon to commit to rate cuts, as inflation data and tariff fallout are still top of mind.

• Even if Trump replaces Fed Chair Powell next year, fast interest rate cuts may not follow if inflation proves stickier than expected.