Policy is loud, data is missing, and markets are trying to drive using vibes and backup sensors.

Donald Trump says tariffs on India drop to 18% after Narendra Modi agrees to stop buying Russian oil, while a partial shutdown is pushing the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report off the calendar. Let’s get into it.

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The Big Picture

Housing & Utilities

America’s Rooftop Solar Boom Just Hit Its First Real Wall

The end of a key homeowner incentive is forcing a fast reset across U.S. rooftop solar.

What was once a steady pipeline of installs is now thinning as higher upfront costs collide with already tight household budgets.

This segment relied heavily on volume and labor, so the slowdown is rippling quickly into layoffs, market exits, and consolidation.

The industry is learning that growth has become increasingly dependent on policy support rather than pure economics.

From Expansion To Survival Mode

Installers are shifting from growth strategies to balance-sheet defense.

Projects are being delayed, hiring plans frozen, and weaker operators are either restructuring or disappearing altogether.

This matters beyond solar rooftops.

Residential solar supported thousands of installation, logistics, and financing jobs, and its slowdown feeds into broader questions about how quickly the U.S. can scale power supply for rising electricity demand.

A Market That Rebuilds Differently

The downturn is not killing rooftop solar, but it is reshaping who survives.

Ownership models that spread costs over time are gaining ground, pushing the market away from one-time purchases toward subscription-style energy.

Longer term, the shakeout may leave a smaller, more concentrated industry with fewer players but more predictable cash flows.

For the U.S., this is a reminder that energy transitions do not move in straight lines; they lurch, pause, and reorganize before moving forward again.

Critical Minerals

Supply Chains Go Regional As The U.S. Tightens Its Minerals Strategy

The United States is shifting its critical minerals strategy away from fragile global dependence and toward tighter regional coordination.

Working with Mexico signals a broader move to anchor supply chains closer to home, where political alignment and logistics offer more control.

This is less about short-term trade tweaks and more about reshaping how essential inputs move through North America.

Minerals that sit behind manufacturing, energy systems, and advanced technology are being treated as infrastructure, not commodities.

Price Stability Over Price Wars

Exploring coordinated pricing mechanisms marks a subtle but important change in U.S. thinking.

Instead of chasing the lowest global price, the focus is moving toward stability, predictability, and investment confidence across the supply chain.

For U.S. manufacturers, this reduces exposure to sudden price swings and supply shocks.

For miners and processors, it improves the economics of long-term projects that previously struggled under volatile market conditions.

A Bigger Signal To Markets

This coordination arrives ahead of a broader trade agreement review, but the message goes beyond any single negotiation.

The U.S. is signaling that access to critical minerals will increasingly depend on alignment with its supply chain framework.

Over time, this approach could pull investment, processing capacity, and innovation back into North America.

The macro takeaway is clear: Industrial resilience is now being built deliberately, and minerals sit at the center of that strategy.

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Exports

U.S. Beef Finds New Momentum Beyond Traditional Markets

Rising spending power across emerging and tourism-driven economies is reshaping global protein demand, creating fresh tailwinds for U.S. beef producers.

As incomes climb, consumption patterns evolve, with beef increasingly viewed as an accessible upgrade rather than a luxury.

This dynamic matters for the U.S. because it expands demand beyond a narrow set of traditional buyers.

Instead of relying on a few large markets, beef exports can plug into a wider, more resilient base of global consumers.

One Animal, Many Price Points

What makes U.S. beef especially well-positioned is its ability to serve multiple income tiers at once.

Different cuts travel to different markets, allowing exporters to match global demand without reshaping production.

Lower cost cuts support food security and affordability in developing economies, while premium cuts benefit from tourism growth and rising high-income consumption.

That flexibility improves overall carcass value and helps smooth revenue across the supply chain.

Exports Without One Market

Recent export softness masks a more stable underlying picture for U.S. beef.

Weakness tied to specific destinations has distorted the headline numbers, but broader global demand remains intact.

From a macro perspective, this diversification reduces geopolitical risk and strengthens long-term export stability.

As global purchasing power continues to expand, U.S. beef stands to benefit from a world that is simply eating better and eating more.

Metrics to Watch

• Private Jobs Stand-Ins
  With the official jobs report delayed, watch weekly jobless claims and any big private payroll reads that start stealing the spotlight. If those soften, rate-cut talk gets louder. 
  

• Oil Flow Tells
  If India really pivots away from Russian crude, keep an eye on Brent, spreads, and tanker chatter. Any supply rerouting tends to show up in price volatility before it shows up in headlines. 
  

• Dollar and FX Pulse
  Watch the greenback versus sterling and the euro. FX has been doing a lot of the market’s mood-swings lately, especially with central banks sounding cautious. 
  

• Price-Cut Reality Check in Housing
  Track mortgage rates, new listings, and the share of homes selling below list. When discounts and seller concessions rise, it usually shows up in consumer confidence and big-ticket spending next. 
  

• Factory Momentum (This Week’s PMIs)
  Keep an eye on manufacturing PMIs and especially “new export orders.” It’s the quickest read on whether trade tension is cooling or just changing outfits.

Market Movers

🚢 India Tariff Reset: Trade Deal with Energy Consequences
If the 18% tariff level sticks, it’s a big signal that the U.S. wants managed friction, not a full trade brawl, at least with India.

The oil angle matters too: less Russian buying would reshuffle crude routes and could quietly change who wins on refining margins and shipping. 

🧾 The Corporate Diet is Still On
Big companies are still trimming pandemic-era headcount bloat.

That doesn’t automatically mean recession, but it does mean executives are choosing efficiency over vibes, and that can change everything from ad spend to shipping volumes.

(Also: your “we’re a family” Slack messages are about to feel extra ironic.) 

🏠 Housing is Finally Acting Like a Normal Market Again
Buyers are getting discounts at the highest clip since 2019, and the average markdown on below-list deals is the biggest since 2012.

Translation: price discovery is back, and sellers are learning that 2021 is not walking through that door. 

💵 Central Banks on Hold, but the Currency Story Isn’t
European Central Bank and Bank of England are expected to sit tight, while cheap imports and currency moves keep messing with the inflation outlook.

This is one of those setups where rates stay unchanged but markets still move anyway.

Market Impacts

Equities: Futures are trying to stay green after a solid start to February, but the vibe is still picky. The market is rewarding companies that can turn AI spending into real profits, and punishing anything that feels like “trust me, bro” capex.

Big single-stock moves are back on the menu as earnings roll in, with Palantir Technologies and Teradyne grabbing attention.

How to play it: Keep your core in proven cash generators and selective AI enablers, and treat anything that needs perfect sentiment as a trade, not a marriage.

Bonds: Yields nudged higher as stronger U.S. factory data reminded everyone the economy is not exactly limping.

Add the market thinking about what a Kevin Warsh era could look like, and you get a bond market that’s less excited about rapid cuts.

How to play it: The sleep-at-night pocket is still the short-to-intermediate range. Long bonds can stay the emergency umbrella, not the daily outfit.

Currencies: The dollar firmed as the mood got a little more defensive, helped by solid U.S. data and the rate-path debate around Federal Reserve leadership.

When markets get jumpy, the dollar tends to act like the boring friend who still has a charger.

How to play it: Keep horizons short and respect headline risk. If risk appetite wobbles again, commodity-linked currencies usually feel it first.

Commodities: Oil slid on signs of U.S.–Iran de-escalation and the stronger dollar, while OPEC+ supply decisions keep the medium-term picture messy.

Meanwhile, gold and silver are still digesting last week’s violent shakeout, with higher margin requirements adding pressure to crowded positions.

How to play it: Energy looks more like a headline-driven swing than a straight line. Precious metals still work as insurance, but size it like insurance, not like a lottery ticket.

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Key Indicators to Watch

• Initial Jobless Claims (Thu, Feb. 5, 8:30 a.m. ET) - The best weekly layoffs pulse. A calm print supports the “cooling, not cracking” story. A surprise jump usually boosts defensives and makes rate-cut talk louder.
  

• Consumer Sentiment, prelim (Fri, Feb. 6, 10:00 a.m. ET) - This is the mood ring for Main Street. If confidence keeps sliding, discretionary names can start feeling heavier. A bounce helps the soft-landing crowd breathe again.
  

• Consumer Credit (Fri, Feb. 6, 3:00 p.m. ET) - A quick check on how hard households are leaning on borrowing. Big growth can mean spending power, but it can also mean people are stretching. Weak credit growth can signal caution.
  

• CPI, January (Wed, Feb. 11, 8:30 a.m. ET) - Still the market’s main obsession. A cooler print helps bonds and growth stocks. A hot print tends to lift yields and strengthen the dollar.
  

• U.S. Retail Sales, December, delayed report (Tue, Feb. 10, 8:30 a.m. ET) - The cash register check. Strong sales support earnings confidence. Weak sales push money toward staples and other boring but stable areas.

Side note: The U.S. employment report and related jobs stats on Fri, Feb. 6 are listed but currently delayed due to the Labor Department funding lapse, so the market will treat any private hiring clues as a substitute until it’s rescheduled.

Everything Else

• 📉 Friday’s U.S. jobs report just got punted thanks to the shutdown, so traders are stuck watching backup signals instead of the main scoreboard.

• 🏭 China’s January factory reads came in split, with the private survey and official PMI sending mixed vibes around the Lunar New Year.

• 🧠 Kevin Hassett is hyping Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair type, calling it his dream job situation.

• 🧱 U.S. manufacturing snapped back in January as orders jumped, flashing a growth signal that the economy still has some pep.

• 🛢️ Canada’s factory activity expanded for the first time in a year, a small but real turning point for the “is it finally bottoming” crowd.