Last week opened with a sleepy Fed meeting on the calendar and a one-way oil market. It closed with crude whipsawing on a Russia sanctions U-turn, the first real credit scare inside the AI buildout, and an Oct. 28 rate decision that now actually matters.

Dollar Collapse Warning (Sponsored)

Warren Buffett Said THIS at His Final Meeting

Buffett said the “dollar is going to hell.”

Ray Dalio calls it a “debt death spiral.”

With $39 trillion in debt and another trillion added every 60 days, the warning is hard to ignore.

But one investment system is designed to help investors prepare for a falling dollar.

It’s called the ABN System.

See How It Works Free.

*This content is for educational purposes only. The opinions expressed are from DM Intelligence LLC, doing business as Decentralized Masters, who are not licensed financial advisors or registered investment advisors. The reader acknowledges that DM Intelligence LLC is not responsible for any losses, direct or indirect, resulting from the use of this information, including errors, omissions, or inaccuracies.

*Results are not typical and will vary. Success with digital currencies requires time, effort, and involves substantial risk including total loss of investment. Past performance does not indicate future results. All investments are at your own risk.

*Please click here if you would like to unsubscribe.

The Big Picture

Construction

U.S. Builder Confidence Just Fell Near a 14-Year Low

U.S. homebuilder confidence fell in October to its lowest level since June 2012, excluding the brief pandemic disruption. Builders are facing a difficult mix of expensive mortgages, elevated construction costs, labor shortages, and slower buyer traffic.

The weakening outlook is showing up directly in pricing. More builders are cutting prices and offering incentives to move homes that are taking longer to sell.

Price Cuts Are Spreading

About 43% of builders reported reducing home prices in October, the highest share since 2020. Nearly two-thirds are also using sales incentives such as mortgage-rate buy-downs or closing-cost assistance to attract buyers.

That shift suggests the balance of power is moving toward buyers, but affordability remains the bigger problem. Lower asking prices can only offset part of the impact from high mortgage payments and elevated household costs.

Construction Feels the Pressure

Weak home demand can eventually slow new construction, land purchases, hiring, and spending on building materials. It can also hit industries tied to home sales, including appliances, furniture, renovations, and real estate services.

Housing has been one of the clearest areas of the economy affected by high borrowing costs.

Falling builder confidence shows that pressure is now moving deeper into the supply side, with developers increasingly forced to choose between cutting prices, offering incentives, or slowing future projects.

Auto Market

America’s Car Affordability Problem Is Shifting Into the Used Market

Used-vehicle prices are moving higher again as the supply of affordable cars tightens. Wholesale values strengthened during the first half of October after weakening through much of the third quarter.

The increase does not appear to reflect a major surge in consumer demand. Instead, limited inventory is helping support prices, especially for smaller and less expensive vehicles that budget-conscious buyers increasingly prefer.

Affordable Cars Are Scarce

Compact cars have been a stronger part of the market as households search for cheaper alternatives to new vehicles.

High sticker prices and expensive financing have already pushed more buyers toward used cars, but that shift creates additional pressure when supply is limited.

Fewer inexpensive vehicles can make it harder for households to reduce monthly transportation costs. Buyers who cannot find a lower-priced car may have to keep older vehicles longer or accept larger loan payments.

Transportation Costs Stay Elevated

Vehicle affordability matters well beyond dealerships. Cars remain essential for commuting, childcare, shopping, and everyday travel across much of the country, making transportation one of the largest expenses in many household budgets.

Tighter used-car supply also affects repair shops, lenders, rental fleets, and dealers trying to replace inventory. If affordable vehicles remain scarce, falling demand alone may not bring prices down quickly.

The result is another affordability squeeze in a market where many households had expected used vehicles to provide relief from record new-car prices.

Elite Picks (Sponsored)

These 7 Stocks Just Made the Cut

This report focuses on a narrow group of stocks identified through a detailed screening process.

Analysts apply a combination of metrics to narrow down potential opportunities.

Past selections have shown strong momentum, but no outcomes are guaranteed.

The newest edition is now open for access.

Get the report now.

*This free resource is being sent by Zacks. We identify investment resources you may choose to use in making your own decisions. Use of this resource is subject to the Zacks Terms of Service.

*Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk. This material does not constitute investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed dealer, broker, or investment adviser.

Private Capital

Billions Are Flowing Into Factories, Infrastructure, and Supply Chains

JPMorgan has already invested $5 billion directly into companies considered important to U.S. economic and national security, spanning advanced manufacturing, defense technology, supply chains, infrastructure, and battery storage.

The broader initiative is designed to support up to $1.5 trillion in investment over the next decade. Large financial institutions are increasingly directing capital toward industries tied to domestic production and supply-chain resilience.

Manufacturing Becomes a Strategic Priority

Years of supply disruptions and geopolitical tension have pushed companies and policymakers to rethink where they produce critical goods.

Semiconductors, batteries, defense equipment, power systems, and advanced machinery are all drawing more attention.

New investment can support factories, construction, engineering, equipment purchases, and skilled employment across multiple regions.

Domestic production also reduces dependence on overseas suppliers for products considered economically or strategically important.

Capital Is Following Industrial Policy

Public incentives have already encouraged more spending on chips, energy infrastructure, and manufacturing. Private lenders and investors are now adding much larger pools of capital behind the same trend.

A sustained increase in industrial investment can strengthen productive capacity and support long-term growth. Still, results will depend on whether new projects generate enough demand and returns to justify the spending.

Higher borrowing costs also remain a challenge for companies that rely heavily on debt.

Metrics to Watch

• 📊US CPI (September)
  Headline printed 3.7% year over year, up from 3.4%, with gasoline driving about half the monthly move. Core rose to 2.6% from 2.4%. This single release reshuffled Fed expectations and will dominate the Warsh press conference.
  

• 📈10-Year Treasury Yield
  Ended last week near 5.10%, after touching 5.31% earlier in October, its highest level since 2007. The pullback tells you the bond market is doing some of the Fed's tightening work already, which gives Warsh cover to hold if he wants it.
  

• 💹Brent Crude
  It touched $110 on Friday before the Russia waiver took some air out of it. Sustained moves in crude feed straight into headline CPI through gasoline and diesel. If Hormuz escalates, your Fed narrative changes again.
  

• 🏛️ US Unemployment
  4.2% in September, with payrolls up just 29,000. Still consistent with a soft landing, but the direction matters more than the level. A 4.4% print in the next jobs report would change the growth conversation overnight.
  

• 📉 China Q3 GDP
  Monday's release showed 4.5% growth, up from 4.3% in the second quarter and a touch above estimates, as AI-related exports offset the property drag. Not strong enough to lift the global cycle, but strong enough to keep copper near $6.60 a pound.

Market Movers

🛢️Oil Squeeze Turns Two-Way
Hormuz headlines pushed Brent to $110, then Trump's Russia sanctions waiver pulled it back. You are not getting a clean trend here. The Energy Department's 17-million-barrel SPR exchange suggests DC still sees real risk to physical supply even as the headlines pull prices lower.

💥 AI Credit Scare
CoreWeave bonds blew out, the stock dropped 25% in a week, and Microsoft reportedly walked away from a UK data center deal with Nscale. The AI capex story is meeting its first real credit cycle. If this spreads to the hyperscalers' CDS spreads, it becomes a sector-level event, not a one-name problem.

💵 Dollar Near Its 52-Week High
The dollar index touched its strongest level in a year last week before pulling back modestly. A strong dollar plus $100-plus oil is a double tax on emerging markets. Watch EM equity ETFs if you own them.

🔄 Rate-Hike Repricing
The October Fed meeting looked like a non-event before CPI. Now it's a live decision. If Warsh moves again, that's your 2026 regime-change moment. Position accordingly before Oct. 28.

Market Impacts

📈 Equities: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,659, down 2.0% on the week, with tech the worst of the 11 sectors. The real tell was the rotation. Energy, Consumer Staples and Health Care each gained 3% to 5%, and Utilities finished higher too. If you were waiting for a rotation signal, this was it.

🏦 Bonds: Treasuries finally acted like a haven again. The 10-year yield fell about 15 basis points on the week as the AI selloff forced short-covering from aggressively bearish positioning. If you are underweight duration, the pain trade has flipped against you.

💱 Currencies: The dollar index touched a 52-week high before pulling back as Treasury yields eased. The euro and sterling both firmed late in the week. The yen remains the pressure point, with USD/JPY near 158 keeping intervention talk alive.

🛢️Commodities: Brent and WTI are the whole story. Gold is near $4,195, down about 3% for the year, as a firm dollar and hawkish Fed expectations cap the safe-haven bid. Silver fell about 6% on the week to around $57. Copper is holding near $6.60, which tells you China's demand pulse is steadier than the headlines suggest.

Invisible Debt Tax (Sponsored)

You Owe $117,000. Nobody Sent You the Bill.

The national debt just crossed $40 trillion — about $117,000 for every man, woman, and child in America.

Here's the per-person math.

You'll never get an invoice.

Washington collects a little at a time, from the buying power of everything you've saved.

Here's how to keep your share off the table.

Foreign buyers of U.S. debt are stepping back and buying something else instead.

Claim your complimentary guide here.

*This is an advertisement. If you no longer wish to receive promotional emails, please unsubscribe here or write to: 203 Heritage Grove Road, Leander, TX 78641

Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 Tuesday, Oct 20. US Housing Starts & Building Permits (September). Forecasters look for starts near 1.29 million and permits near 1.37 million. A soft print would validate the growth-slowdown story the long end of the curve is already pricing. Mortgage rates above 7% make this one worth your attention.
  
  

• 📅 Wednesday, Oct 21. Treasury 20-year bond auction. With the 10-year still near 5.10%, demand at the long end tells you whether last week's bond rally has real buyers behind it.
  
  

• 📅 Wednesday, Oct 21. UK CPI (September). A hot print pushes the Bank of England toward more tightening and lifts sterling. A soft print and the pound gives back last week's gains.
  
  

• 📅 Thursday, Oct 22. US Initial Jobless Claims. The quiet weekly print that only matters when it breaks. The last read was 199,000. Watch for any crack above 230,000 as the first real labor signal.
  
  

• 📅 Friday, Oct 23. S&P Global flash PMIs (October). The first look at October business activity, and at whether $100-plus oil is showing up in input prices.

Everything Else

• 🏭 China's economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter, beating forecasts as stronger exports and industrial production offset weak domestic demand.

• 🛢️ Oil prices retreated from five-month highs after Washington temporarily eased sanctions on Russia, potentially allowing more fuel supplies into global markets.

• 📉 Indonesian markets suffered another sharp selloff as MSCI threatened to remove the country from emerging-market indexes, triggering concerns about billions in capital outflows.

• 🏦 The Bank of Japan signaled further interest rate hikes as Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation was approaching the central bank's 2% target.

• 🛒 Global food prices face renewed inflation pressures as droughts, shipping disruptions, and higher fertilizer costs threaten supplies of key agricultural commodities.