The bar for a September cut just dropped, oil cracked, and the dollar sank to a six-week low all in one session. If you have unhedged international exposure or dry powder waiting on duration, the setup into Friday matters more than anything else in markets.

America’s AI Buildout (Sponsored)

The AI Buildout Stock

Taiwan Semiconductor just posted strong earnings and raised its full-year growth outlook above 40%.

But the bigger story may be its expanding U.S. investment. The chipmaker is reportedly adding another $100 billion to the $165 billion it already committed to American manufacturing.

That is $265 billion moving into U.S. chip infrastructure as the AI race accelerates.

One analyst believes this spending points to a much larger government-backed AI project now taking shape, and he has identified one little-known company that could be positioned directly in its path.

See the company positioned for America’s next AI buildout.

The Big Picture

Infrastructure

America’s Power Buildout Just Took a Sharp Turn Toward Gas

RWE announced Thursday that it will cancel three offshore wind leases in U.S. waters and redirect $1.22 billion into liquefied natural gas and gas-fired power projects.

The abandoned leases sit off New York, California, and Louisiana. All three projects remained in early development and were not expected to begin producing electricity until the 2030s.

The Money Moves Into Gas

Most of the redirected investment will purchase a stake in a Louisiana LNG project. Another portion will fund turbines for 15 natural gas power plants planned across the United States.

The shift will create demand for turbine manufacturing, construction, pipelines, industrial equipment, and skilled energy workers. It will also add power plants that can respond quickly when electricity demand rises.

America’s Power Mix Changes

U.S. electricity needs are climbing as data centers, factories, and other large projects connect to the grid.

Natural gas is attracting more investment because power plants can provide steady electricity while transmission networks and slower energy projects remain under development.

The agreement does not remove existing wind generation from the grid. It changes where money intended for future capacity will now be spent.

This latest move shows capital flowing toward projects that offer a clearer and faster path into operation as America races to expand electricity supply.

Manufacturing

A $16.8 Billion Chip Factory Is Coming to Texas

SpaceX and Tesla announced Thursday that they will initially invest $16.8 billion to build a major AI semiconductor complex in Grimes County, Texas.

The Terafab project will bring chip manufacturing, packaging, and testing together at one site, creating at least 3,000 skilled jobs as construction and production expand.

The facility is designed to supply advanced processors for robots, driverless vehicles, and large computing systems.

Chip Production Moves Closer to Home

The United States has spent years trying to rebuild semiconductor production after much of the industry moved overseas. The Texas project takes that push beyond a traditional chip factory.

Producing several stages of the semiconductor under one roof could reduce delays between manufacturing, packaging, and final testing.

Construction will also create new demand for specialized machinery, metals, chemicals, water systems, electricity, and trained workers.

A New Industrial Center Takes Shape

The announcement adds another major manufacturing project to America’s AI investment wave. Texas has the land, energy network, workforce, and existing technology operations needed to support projects of this size.

The new complex could also attract suppliers that want factories closer to one of their largest customers. Thursday’s announcement shows how the AI race is moving deeper into the physical economy.

Software remains important, but the next stage of growth increasingly depends on factories capable of producing the chips behind it.

Financial Planning (Sponsored)

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Healthcare

America Just Approved Its First mRNA Flu Vaccine

The FDA approved Moderna’s mFlusiva on Thursday, making it the first seasonal flu vaccine in the United States built with messenger RNA technology.

The shot was cleared for adults aged 50 and older after a large clinical trial showed stronger protection than a standard flu vaccine.

Older adults will require additional follow-up data, but the decision gives mRNA technology its first major U.S. use beyond COVID vaccination.

Flu Protection Gets Faster

Traditional flu vaccines often depend on eggs or cell-based production, which requires manufacturers to select strains and begin preparation months before flu season.

An mRNA platform can be updated more quickly when circulating strains change.

Faster production could eventually help vaccine makers respond more closely to the viruses spreading during a particular season, although the newly approved shot is not expected to reach the U.S. market immediately.

The Impact Reaches Workplaces and Hospitals

Seasonal flu creates pressure across hospitals, clinics, pharmacies, schools, and workplaces every year. Serious outbreaks can increase medical demand, keep employees home, interrupt business operations, and place older adults at greater risk of hospitalization.

The approval adds another manufacturing platform to America’s flu defenses and gives healthcare providers a new option for older patients.

The milestone will now be tested by public demand, insurance coverage, production capacity, and how well the vaccine performs across future flu seasons.

Metrics to Watch

• 📊 ADP Employment (July)
  Private payrolls rose just 44,000 versus 75,000 expected, with June revised down to 95,000. The three-month average has fallen to 87,000. Momentum is clearly draining out of the labor market and Friday's NFP will confirm or deny.
  

• 📈 GDP Q2 Advance Estimate
  Real GDP grew at just 1.5% annualized in Q2 versus 2.1% in Q1. Growth is decelerating, not collapsing. That's the exact zone where the Fed's inflation-versus-growth trade-off gets ugliest.
  

• 💹 10-Year Treasury Yield
  The 10-year sits near 4.62% as Hormuz-deal chatter compressed the inflation premium. The 2-year around 4.20% is telling you rate hikes are being priced out. If NFP disappoints Friday, the 10-year could test 4.50%.
  

• 🏦 Fed Funds Rate
  Held at the last meeting, but the FOMC split is widening. Hawks want to stay parked. Cook is describing a "low-hire, low-fire" labor market. September is live in both directions.
  

• 💰 US-Japan Yen Intervention
  Coordinated action last week after the yen hit a 40-year low against the dollar. USD/JPY has stabilized but the setup is fragile. If Japanese holders start selling Treasuries to cover FX losses, yields on everything reprice higher.

Market Movers

🏛️ Fed Rate Path Repricing
The bar for a September cut has come down fast. Weak ADP plus falling oil equals a dovish reset in real time. If Friday's NFP misses, long-duration assets get a green light and the dollar gives up more ground.

🌍 Hormuz Deal Optimism
Iran-Oman progress on reopening the strait pressured crude and boosted risk appetite everywhere except energy stocks. Watch the follow-through. An actual signed agreement versus continued talks produces very different market outcomes.

💵 Dollar Weakness Across the Board
The DXY sits near a six-week low as risk flows dominate. Every major currency is winning against the dollar except the yen, thanks to Japan's own problems.

If you have international exposure, your USD-hedged positions are giving up returns right now.

📉 China Countermeasures
Beijing sanctioned US firms and tightened drone export controls ahead of Xi's US visit. The trade détente everyone assumed after February's Supreme Court ruling isn't materializing.

Position for headline volatility in China-exposed industrials and semis over the next two weeks.

Market Impacts

📈 Equities: The Dow finished at a record on Mideast optimism while breadth split by sector. Healthcare, basic materials, and technology outperformed, while industrials, energy, and utilities lagged.

If you own broad index ETFs, you got very different exposure depending on which one.

🏦 Bonds: The 10-year yield eased to around 4.62% and the 2-year to 4.20%, with the front end leading the rally as oil crashed and ADP disappointed.

The yield curve steepened slightly. If you've been waiting to add duration, a weak jobs print Friday could give you the entry.

💱 Currencies: The dollar hit a six-week low as risk-on flows sent capital into higher-beta currencies. Yen found footing after the US-Japan joint intervention but remains vulnerable.

Euro and pound both benefiting from broad dollar weakness. Your unhedged international positions just got a tailwind.

🛢️Commodities: The biggest story on the board. Gold jumped to roughly $4,315 and silver advanced to $62.11 as real yields fell.

Oil moved the opposite direction, with WTI near $75 and Brent near $79.40. Copper firm on China demand hopes. Natural gas soft.

See Now (Sponsored)

The Next Market Crisis

Wall Street banks are warning that the next market crisis could be unlike anything investors have seen in decades.

If Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are right, portfolios could remain under pressure for 10 years or longer.

After repeated market shocks since 2022, some experts believe the instability could continue well into the 2030s.

See How to Defend Your Portfolio Now

Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 Friday, August 7, US Non-Farm Payrolls (July) - Consensus around 100,000 after a soft June. If ADP was any signal, the print skews to the downside. A big miss cements rate-cut bets and puts the dollar under more pressure.
  

• 📅 Friday, August 7, Average Hourly Earnings (July) - Wage inflation is the one thing keeping Fed hawks in the game. Anything hotter than 0.3% month-over-month and the rate-cut narrative gets complicated even if headline payrolls disappoint.
  

• 📅 Friday, August 7, Unemployment Rate - Currently 4.2%. A tick up to 4.3% or 4.4% would confirm the labor market is genuinely softening, not just moderating. That's the trigger for a real September cut discussion.
  

• 📅 Week of August 10, Q2 Earnings Continue - Simon Property Group, Ferguson, and AECOM headline the mid-cap docket. SPG in particular will give you a read on Class A retail REIT demand into the second half.

Everything Else

• 🛰️ The earliest market phases show up as subtle structural shifts not headlines and three small-cap stocks across AI, energy, and emerging tech are already showing them now.

• 🏦 Washington says it will do whatever it takes to steady the yen after last week's joint intervention.

• 🌏 Beijing sanctioned US firms and tightened drone export curbs days before Xi's visit.

• 🥇 Gold's breakout was the buy signal, though one analyst doubts a fresh record lands this year.

• 💵 Liberation Day tariffs are being refunded, but shoppers may never see that money back.