• Macro Notes
  • Posts
  • The Fed Got Cut, Then Got Cut Up, and Markets Are Trying Not to Spill Their Coffee

The Fed Got Cut, Then Got Cut Up, and Markets Are Trying Not to Spill Their Coffee

Author

Noah Zelvis
January 18, 2026

January’s energy is less “new year, new me” and more “new year, new headline”.

The Fed delivered a cut, hinted it may pause, and now the Powell-Trump feud is cranking up the volume.

Markets have not melted down, but this is exactly the kind of political noise that can mess with rate expectations and volatility when you least expect it.

AI Breakthrough (Sponsored)

If you own ZERO of the Next Magnificent Seven stocks.

Original Mag Seven turned $7,000 into $1.18 million.

But these seven AI stocks could do it in 6 years (not 20).

Now, the man who called Nvidia in 2005 is revealing details on all seven for FREE.

Find Out More Now Before It's Too Late.

Here is the clean read: investors are watching whether the Federal Reserve stays independent, not just whether it cuts again.

The Justice Department is investigating Fed Chair Jerome Powell tied to his June testimony about the Fed headquarters renovation, a project whose cost has risen to about $2.5 billion. That probe is landing in the middle of an already tense relationship between the White House and the Fed.

Why does this matter for your portfolio? Because markets like central banks boring. If investors start believing the Fed will bend to politics instead of data, longer-term yields can rise even when the Fed cuts, borrowing can get pricier, and stocks can get jumpier. 

So far, the reaction has been more shrug than stampede, though there have been signs of caution, like strength in gold and some currency moves.

The sneaky takeaway is that this is not just a rates story. It is a credibility story. When credibility gets questioned, volatility usually feels invited.

Stay Up to Speed on Macro News!

We now send our macro-focused news via text, so you’re never far from the latest market-moving action.

Actionable Stuff

  • Do not chase the calm. Quiet tape can flip fast when politics touches policy.

  • Barbell your exposure. Hold steady compounders and keep a small sleeve that benefits if volatility wakes up.

  • Keep liquidity on purpose. Dry powder matters more when headlines can move yields in a morning.

  • Avoid pure rate-cut fantasy trades. If long yields do not fall, those setups can disappoint even after cuts.

  • Use hedges that still make sense on their own. You want positions that are not dead money if nothing breaks.

Poll: Which cost feels hardest to explain to someone else?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Unlock Crypto Gains (Sponsored)

Liquidity is rising, institutions are investing, and regulations are becoming friendlier.

The foundation is set for what could be a major market move.

Investors who act now may benefit most.

A 250-page digital system reveals how to grow crypto wealth safely, without risky speculation or constant stress.

Download now and claim $788 in bonuses—including the #1 crypto pick this cycle.

Access the Crypto Guide

Top Picks

Virtu Financial (NASDAQ: VIRT)

Virtu is a toll booth on trading activity. When markets get choppy and volumes rise, the market plumbing names often get paid.

If the Fed drama keeps traders active and positioning changes fast, Virtu can benefit without you needing to predict the direction of rates.

Federated Hermes (NYSE: FHI)

When people are unsure about the path of policy, cash stops being boring. Federated has a large cash-management and money-market business, which tends to stay relevant when investors want a parking spot that still earns something.

If the policy path stays uncertain, fee-generating cash products can remain sticky.

Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF)

Stifel is a solid messy-markets-still-create-activity name, with wealth management and brokerage exposure.

It is not a moonshot. It is more of a steady operator that can benefit when clients rebalance, reposition, and move money during uncertainty.

Alamos Gold (NYSE: AGI)

Gold is a classic trust hedge. If investors start questioning institutions, policy stability, or the inflation path, gold can catch a bid even when stocks look fine.

Alamos gives you that exposure without needing anything fancy, and it can work as a small stabilizer when political headlines start leaking into monetary policy.

Secure Your Wealth (Sponsored)

The world is rapidly shifting to cashless systems, with countries like China leading the way.

As the U.S. rolls out FEDNOW, it’s clear that convenience could come at a steep price—your freedom.

With digital currencies, those who control the ledger control your ability to speak, transact, and live freely.

Stay informed and safeguard your future.

Download our guide on CBDCs and protect your wealth.

CLICK HERE TO GET YOUR GUIDE NOW

Bottom Line

The Fed cut and hinted at a higher bar for more cuts, while the Powell-Trump conflict is turning into a real test of confidence in the institution. Markets are acting calm, but you do not want your plan relying on calm staying permanent. Stay balanced, keep liquidity, and own a few names that can benefit if volatility decides to show up anyway.

That’s it for today’s edition—thanks for reading! Reply to this email with any feedback or let me know which macro trends or markets you’d like me to cover next.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Macro Notes