The Fed’s quarter-point trim is in the books, but the real story is the growing split inside the room.

Stephen Miran wants half-point cuts now and more to come, while Powell insists on playing “risk management.” For you, that means opportunity, if you keep a seatbelt on.

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The Big Picture

Labor Market

Sticker Shock on Talent: $100K Visa Fee Rocks U.S. Tech

The U.S. loves to brag about being the global hub of innovation, but that crown starts to wobble when the pipeline of skilled workers gets squeezed.

The proposed $100,000 H-1B visa fee throws a boulder in the road for industries already fighting to stay competitive.

Yes, H-1Bs make up less than 1% of the American workforce, but this is the 1% you actually need — the engineers, coders, and analysts who keep the tech and finance engines running.

Cut them off, and it’s not just Silicon Valley that feels the pinch. It’s the entire economy that relies on the spillover effects of innovation.

Brain Drain, American Edition

If it suddenly costs a fortune to bring in global talent, companies have choices: swallow the cost, cut back on projects, or ship the jobs somewhere friendlier, think Toronto, London, or Bangalore.

That means fewer research hubs, fewer high-paying jobs created at home, and a quieter buzz in America’s innovation corridors.

The Domino Effect on Growth

Scarcity of skilled labor doesn’t just raise salaries; it hinders the development of new ideas. From AI development to financial services, sectors that depend on speed and brainpower could lose their edge.

For an economy still leaning on services and tech to drive growth, the visa fee hike isn’t just policy noise; it’s a direct hit to America’s competitiveness.

Gold

Why Gold Has Become America’s Favorite Panic Button

Gold just won’t quit. The metal smashed another record this week, trading around $3,720 an ounce and stretching its winning streak into a sixth straight week.

It’s not just traders geeking out over charts, as it’s a signal that America’s favorite “break glass in case of emergency” asset is back in style.

The Fed Can’t Shake the Glow

With interest rates heading lower and the U.S. dollar losing some of its swagger, gold has stepped in as the ultimate comfort food for nervous markets.

Every time the Fed hints at another rate cut, bullion shines brighter.

For households and businesses, it’s another reminder that uncertainty at the top bleeds into where people put their money.

America’s Oldest Hedge is Getting Crowded

From central banks stockpiling reserves to everyday investors adding a little sparkle to their portfolios, gold is once again the safe haven of choice.

What’s driving this demand isn’t just inflation fears but the broader sense that the U.S. economy is moving into choppy waters.

In moments like these, the shiny stuff feels less like an investment and more like insurance.

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Solar Energy

When Steel Gets Squeezed, So Does Clean Energy

The U.S. steel crunch is no longer just an industry headache as it’s becoming a national bottleneck.

Domestic mills are booked solid through 2025, while tariffs on imported steel have doubled to 50%.

The result? A squeeze that’s rippling straight into construction, autos, and most critically, America’s clean energy rollout.

Solar’s Skeleton is Steel

Solar developers don’t just need panels; they need a mountain of steel to hold them up.

Racking systems, trackers, and mounting structures are all steel-intensive, and tariffs have made those costs jump almost overnight.

Worse, it’s not just about higher prices; it’s about scarcity. Even if developers are ready to pay more, the tonnage just isn’t there.

Delays are piling up, pushing installations into 2026 and slowing the very energy transition Washington keeps promising to accelerate.

A Double Squeeze on Clean Power

It doesn’t stop with steel. At the same time, U.S. manufacturers are pushing for new duties on Indian solar cells and modules, claiming unfair pricing.

If those stick, both the panels and the steel frames holding them will cost more.

That’s a double hit to America’s renewable ambitions: higher costs, longer delays, and a lost edge against global competitors who can build cheaper and faster.

For a nation aiming to lead the clean energy race, tariffs just turned into sand in the gears.

Metrics to Watch

• Fed Dissent Watch: Miran is openly pushing for bigger, faster cuts and says tariffs aren’t fueling inflation. The dot plot still shows most officials cautious, but his voice could pull expectations.

• Jobless Claims (Thurs): Last week’s claims slid back to 231k after the Texas-flavored spike, but the trend is still higher. Another calm print keeps panic at bay; another pop brings 50 bps chatter back.

• ECB Guidance: VP de Guindos said they’re not sure if cuts are done. That’s code for “don’t fight us if growth stumbles.” Watch EUR/USD moves around Fed vs. ECB divergence.

• Mortgage Rates: At ~6.35% for a 30-year, affordability gets a bit of relief. But don’t expect rates to crash just because the Fed trims, 10-yr yields still run the show.

• Tariff Wildcard: Mexico-China auto spat and Trump’s trade volleys mean supply chains aren’t safe yet. Any flare-up = margin squeeze in autos/industrials into year-end.

Market Movers

🚨 Fed Split, Cut Debate
Powell’s 25 bps cut is about caution. Miran wants more, and his dissent keeps the “bigger cuts” camp alive.

For your portfolio, stick with quality credit and 2–5yr duration and maybe hedge with a little gold.

👷 Jobless Claims: Relief Bounce
Back down to 231k. Good news, but don’t over-celebrate. Labor is softening, just not collapsing. Use this to stay selective in growth, don’t chase every dip.

🏦 ECB Ambiguity
Europe’s central bank says it doesn’t know if it’s done cutting. Translation: global easing isn’t off the table, and EUR assets can still get a tailwind.

🏠 Mortgages & Housing
Rates may ease, but don’t expect fireworks, mortgages don’t follow the Fed 1:1. Stick with markets where supply is tight (Midwest/Northeast) vs. overbuilt South/West.

🚢 Tariff Watch
China vs. Mexico tariffs keep the crosscurrents alive. Domestic-heavy supply chains look safer, while multinationals could keep seeing cost volatility.

Market Impacts

Equities: Futures are barely budging after a banner week (fresh highs for the Dow and S&P; Nasdaq up 2.2%).

You’ve got a quarter-point cut in hand and markets penciling in two more by year-end, but at these levels the bar for upside is higher—data has to cooperate.

Translation: ride quality leadership (cash-rich mega-cap tech, steady compounders), and keep a little dry powder in case this week’s macro knocks the tape around.

Bonds: Long end did its own thing: the 10-yr pushed toward ~4.14% (two-week high) with the 30-yr ~4.76% even as the Fed eased.

That’s the growth/deficit/term-premium cocktail reminding you duration isn’t a one-way bet.

If you’re adding, do it in the 2–5y area on backups; keep some 30-yr hedges on in case supply or inflation chatter perks up again.

Currencies: Dollar bounce, but not a victory lap. DXY ticked ~0.3% higher as traders digested a slower, steadier Fed path (two more cuts signaled, not a rush).

Yen firmed on BOJ cross-currents; sterling slipped on UK fiscal worries.

Into a speech-heavy week, expect choppy range-trading: dovish surprises = softer USD; any “higher for longer” hints = quick USD snapback.

Commodities: Gold’s still wearing the cape, hovering near records (~$3,680/oz) on “cuts are coming, growth’s wobbly.” Keep a modest size.

Crude eased (Brent ~$66.7, WTI ~$62.7) as distillate builds and robust supply overpowered the “Fed cut = demand” narrative.

Until inventories tighten or a real supply hit lands, think “sell rips,” and prefer refiners/transport over upstream beta.

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Key Indicators to Watch

📅 S&P Global Services PMI (Tue, 9:45 a.m. ET)
Consensus: 53.8 (prior 54.5). Services have been the growth cushion—another slip says demand is cooling, which helps the cut cadence but questions earnings resilience.

📅 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Tue, 9:45 a.m. ET)
Consensus: 51.5 (prior 53.0). A softer print would confirm goods-side sluggishness (and tariff pass-through risk). A beat would support cyclicals and nudge yields up.

📅 Powell Speaks (Tue, 12:35 p.m. ET)
No dots today, just vibes. If he leans “risk management, gradual,” that supports gold/quality. Any hint they’re worried about inflation persistence could lift the dollar and long yields.

📅 New Home Sales (Wed, 10:00 a.m. ET)
Consensus: 650k (prior 652k). With 30-yr mortgages drifting lower, you want to see stabilization. A miss says affordability/inventory are still biting; watch homebuilder guides and incentives.

📅 Fed Speak Cluster (Mon, 9:45 a.m.–12:00 p.m. ET)
Williams, Musalem, Miran, Hammack, Barkin. Miran’s the wild card, if he renews the call for bigger/faster cuts, front-end rates and the dollar could wobble intraday.

Everything Else

• The Fed cut rates last week, but somehow mortgage costs still managed to climb higher. Apparently, housing doesn’t always RSVP to Powell’s party invites.

• Sales of heavy trucks are falling off a cliff, which historically has been the market’s version of a “recession’s coming” road sign.

• China decided to leave its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the fourth month in a row, a whole lot of hurry up and wait.

• Despite tariff shocks and U.S. drama, the global economy is somehow just rolling with the punches like a heavyweight that refuses to stay down.

• And the U.S. government now owns a stake in Intel, making Uncle Sam an unexpected chip player, no word yet if Congress plans to demand free Wi-Fi.