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  • The Job Market Is Cooling, But At Least It Isn’t Falling Apart

The Job Market Is Cooling, But At Least It Isn’t Falling Apart

Author

Noah Zelvis
December 17, 2025

The delayed jobs data finally landed, and it’s a classic mixed plate: unemployment climbed to 4.6% while November still added jobs.

After Fed cut week, this is the exact kind of report that keeps January on the table without screaming emergency.

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The headline that matters most is the unemployment rate.

It rose to 4.6% in November, up from 4.4% in September, which was the last month reported before the shutdown-related gap.

The hiring number for November beat expectations, but it came paired with a weak October that showed job losses and with revisions that made late summer look worse than previously reported.

There is also a big one-time factor in the mix: the federal workforce is shrinking, and a chunk of those cuts are finally hitting the data.

That is not the whole story, but it is an extra weight on the scale right now.

Zoom out and you get a labor market that feels like a simmer, not a boil. Layoffs are not exploding, but hiring is cautious.

Weekly jobless claims popped to 236,000, yet they are still sitting inside the same general range we have seen for most of the year.

Continuing claims fell, which hints that the labor market is not falling apart. It is just not creating enough new opportunity to keep everyone feeling good.

Now tie that back to the Fed. The Fed already cut rates last week, largely because the job market has been cooling.

This delayed data dump does not force an immediate pivot, but it does keep the door open.

If unemployment keeps drifting higher and job growth stays choppy, the Fed will feel pressure to cut again in 2026.

If inflation stays sticky and the jobs data stays merely soft, they can justify sitting tight.

So the playbook is not to panic.

It is to position for a slower hiring environment where rates are lower than they were, but not suddenly cheap, and where consumers and companies act a little more cautious with every month that unemployment creeps up.

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Actionable Stuff

  • Treat this as slow-down risk, not crash risk. Build for endurance, not drama.

  • Own businesses that benefit from churn. When hiring slows, companies still replace people and still need help managing payroll and benefits.

  • Lean into value habits. If job confidence wobbles, trade-down spending usually shows up fast.

  • Stage entries. Buy a starter position now, add if the next data batch spooks the market, add again if the Fed stays on hold and growth keeps cooling.

  • Keep some dry powder. These reports are coming in bunches, and markets love overreacting to any one print.

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ManpowerGroup (NYSE: MAN)

When companies get nervous, they often pause full-time hiring but still need people to fill shifts, cover projects, and keep operations running.

That is where staffing firms can hold up better than you would expect in a slow hiring tape.

Manpower is tied to the rhythm of the labor market, so it can feel ugly when headlines turn, but it also tends to bounce hard when confidence stabilizes and companies realize they still need bodies to get work done.

If unemployment rises gradually without a wave of layoffs, staffing becomes a pressure-release valve.

Insperity (NYSE: NSP)

Insperity helps small and mid-sized companies run HR, payroll, and benefits.

In a cautious economy, a lot of firms would rather outsource that headache than build bigger internal teams.

That makes this a practical “keep the lights on” business even when hiring slows.

If the Fed stays friendly and borrowing costs drift lower into 2026, small businesses may get a bit more breathing room, and Insperity can benefit as clients keep operating lean but still want professional HR support.

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (NASDAQ: OLLI)

When job confidence softens, people do not stop shopping. They just get pickier and hunt harder for deals. Ollie’s lives off that behavior.

It sells closeouts and bargains that make shoppers feel like they won a little, even if the economy is being annoying.

If unemployment is rising and households are watching budgets, the treasure-hunt discount model can pull more traffic.

It is a clean way to play consumer caution without needing a total spending collapse.

Boot Barn (NYSE: BOOT)

This is a sneaky one. Workwear and function-first apparel tends to be steadier than fashion when people tighten up.

Boot Barn sits in that overlap of practical gear and lifestyle, with a customer base that still needs boots, jeans, and work essentials even when the job market cools.

If the economy slows but does not crater, this kind of retailer can hold up better than trendier discretionary names. It is not recession-proof, but it is not purely vibes either.

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Bottom Line

Unemployment at 4.6% is a real signal, even with job gains back on the board.

The vibe is cooling, not collapsing: layoffs are still contained, but hiring is cautious and the data is messy after the shutdown delays.

That is exactly the kind of backdrop that keeps the Fed on a cautious path after cut week, with January and early 2026 very much in play.

Stay invested, stay selective, and lean into mid caps that benefit from bargain hunting, HR outsourcing, and labor market churn. This is a market for steady feet, not victory laps.

That’s it for today’s edition—thanks for reading! Reply to this email with any feedback or let me know which macro trends or markets you’d like me to cover next.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Macro Notes