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The Job Market Took a Deep Breath in Time To Avoid Passing Out

Author

Noah Zelvis
January 11, 2026

After the Fed’s December cut-and-cap, the labor market is basically the next main character.

The latest JOLTS report showed fewer job openings and slower hiring, while ADP nudged back into positive territory.

Translation: things are cooling, but nobody’s slamming the fire alarm yet.

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Job openings slid to about 7.1 million in November, down from nearly 7.5 million in October. Hiring also eased, with about 5.1 million people landing new roles versus 5.4 million the month before. That’s the labor market version of taking smaller bites and chewing slower.

The good news is layoffs did not jump. In fact, the number of people losing jobs involuntarily looked steady to slightly better. And the quits rate ticked up a touch, which suggests workers still have some confidence to move around, even if they’re being pickier about it.

Then you’ve got ADP adding another wrinkle: private-sector hiring turned positive in December with roughly 41,000 jobs added after a November decline. It’s not a hiring boom, but it’s a reminder that the job market can cool without immediately turning ugly.

So what’s the vibe for investors? This looks like a low-hire, low-fire economy. Companies are cautious, but they’re not in full slash-and-burn mode. That tends to favor businesses that help employers:

  • Run leaner teams efficiently

  • Manage pay, benefits, and compliance cleanly

  • Hire selectively when they must, without committing to big headcount jumps

And yes, Friday’s official jobs report is still the big “OK, but really… how’s it going?” moment.

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Actionable Stuff

  • Treat this like a cooling cycle, not a crash. Don’t sell your whole brain on one data point.

  • Favor companies with sticky, recurring revenue. If hiring is slow, predictability matters.

  • Own efficiency enablers. Tools and services that help employers do more with the same team.

  • Be cautious with pure hiring-volume bets. If openings are falling, the easy money isn’t in spray-and-pray recruiting.

  • Scale in. Add in pieces so you can handle headline whiplash without stress-eating your portfolio.

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Top Picks

Paycor (NASDAQ: PYCR)

When hiring slows, companies don’t stop needing HR. They still run payroll, manage benefits, stay compliant, and keep employees engaged.

Paycor is built for that “keep the machine running smoothly” phase, which tends to hold up better than models that rely on a hiring boom.

Insperity (NYSE: NSP)

In a low-hire world, a lot of smaller businesses want HR, benefits, and admin help without building a big internal team.

Insperity plays that outsourcing angle. If 2026 is about staying lean and avoiding messy overhead, this kind of service can stay in demand even when job openings cool.

Korn Ferry (NYSE: KFY)

Even cautious companies still make high-impact hires, especially leadership roles. Korn Ferry isn’t just about placing people, it also touches advisory and organizational work.

If businesses are reshuffling teams, tightening budgets, or rethinking how work gets done, that strategy + talent combo can be more resilient than generic recruiting.

ZipRecruiter (NYSE: ZIP)

This one is more of a selective upside pick. If hiring stays soft, job marketplaces can feel it. But if the labor market stabilizes and companies keep hiring in pockets, platforms that help match roles efficiently can rebound fast.

Think of it as a higher-volatility way to play a cooling, not collapsing labor trend.

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Bottom Line

JOLTS says openings and hiring are cooling. ADP says hiring didn’t fall off a cliff. Put it together and you get a labor market that’s slowing, not snapping, which fits the post-cut Fed setup: cautious, data-driven, and allergic to surprises.

Position for efficiency, stickiness, and selective hiring, and keep your powder dry for the next headline wave.

That’s it for today’s edition—thanks for reading! Reply to this email with any feedback or let me know which macro trends or markets you’d like me to cover next.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Macro Notes