Treasury just sold $728 billion of debt at the highest auction yields in more than 20 years, and the same week the White House opened a formal inquiry into a sitting Fed governor. Read those as one story before Wednesday's CPI print puts it to the test.

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The Big Picture

Housing Market

U.S. Pending Home Sales Sink Near a 12-Year Low

U.S. pending home sales fell 4% in September from the previous month, the biggest monthly decline in more than three years. Sales are now near their lowest level since spring 2014, excluding the brief pandemic shutdown in 2020.

The slowdown spread across the country, with pending sales falling in all 50 of the largest metropolitan areas. Mortgage rates climbed above 7% during September, making already-expensive homes even harder for many households to afford.

More Deals Are Falling Apart

Even buyers who enter the market are increasingly backing out. About 14.5% of home purchase agreements were canceled in September, the highest share in Redfin’s records.

At the same time, the number of homes available for sale rose to its highest level since March 2020. Nearly one in five active sellers cut their asking price, while more than 60% of homes sold for less than their original listing price.

Housing Weakness Spreads Wider

A slower housing market affects far more than real estate agents and homebuilders. Fewer transactions can reduce spending on furniture, appliances, renovations, moving services, and other purchases that typically follow a home sale.

The shift also shows how higher borrowing costs are still weighing on household activity.

Buyers now have more negotiating power, but affordability remains the bigger problem, leaving more homes on the market while fewer households are willing or able to buy.

Agriculture

America Is Heading for One of Its Biggest Harvests Ever

American farmers are on track to produce a record soybean crop and the second-largest corn harvest ever. USDA now expects soybean production to reach 4.56 billion bushels, up 7% from last year, while corn production is projected at roughly 16 billion bushels.

Soybean yields are also expected to set a record at 53.1 bushels per acre. USDA unexpectedly raised its corn yield estimate to 181.2 bushels per acre, well above what analysts had anticipated.

More Supply Pressures Prices

Bigger harvests are good for overall food supply, but they can create a difficult financial equation for farmers. Corn futures dropped sharply after the new forecasts, while USDA lowered its projected average farm price for corn to $4.70 per bushel.

Large inventories can weigh on crop prices while farmers continue paying for land, equipment, seed, fertilizer, labor, and financing.

That puts additional pressure on farm income even when fields are producing exceptionally well.

Cheap Crops Help Other Industries

The effects spread well beyond grain farms. Lower corn and soybean prices can reduce costs for livestock producers, food processors, and other businesses that use crops as major inputs.

Exports will also matter because overseas demand can absorb some of the additional supply.

For the broader farm economy, however, the challenge is increasingly clear: American agriculture is producing enormous volumes, but record output does not automatically translate into stronger profits.

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Critical Minerals

A Massive 1.1 Million-Ton Copper Stockpile Is Building Up at Record Speed

The United States has accumulated an estimated 1.1 million metric tons of copper, creating what could be the world’s second-largest stockpile after China’s strategic reserve.

CME-registered inventories alone have climbed from about 88,600 tons in February 2025 to more than 711,000 tons today.

The buildup accelerated after Washington began examining copper imports on national-security grounds and threatened new tariffs.

Industry Needs More Metal

Copper is essential for construction, power grids, electrical equipment, vehicles, data centers, defense systems, and advanced manufacturing. Demand is rising as investment expands across artificial intelligence infrastructure, electricity networks, and domestic production.

Higher U.S. prices encouraged traders to move large volumes of copper into American warehouses. New delivery locations have also opened in Atlanta, Chicago, Laredo, Memphis, and Mobile to handle the increased supply.

Keeping the Supply Is the Challenge

Unlike a traditional government reserve, most of the copper is commercially owned. That means inventories could eventually move overseas again if international prices become more attractive.

Washington is considering ways to keep more critical minerals inside the country, including future tariffs and public-private stockpiling programs.

Securing copper supply could reduce exposure to global disruptions, but the bigger challenge is ensuring today’s huge inventory remains available when U.S. manufacturers and infrastructure projects actually need it.

Metrics to Watch

• 📊10-Year Treasury Yield (5.24%)
  |The benchmark closed Friday at 5.24%, just off last week's highest levels since 2002. Every basis point higher from here directly compresses equity multiples and raises mortgage rates. Watch it reopen Tuesday after the Columbus Day close.
  

• 📈 CPI (3.4% in August)
  The September print lands Wednesday morning, and consensus is 3.6% year over year. A hot headline sends the 10-year through 5.30% and puts a December hike squarely on the table.
  

• 💹 Unemployment Rate (4.2%)
  Up a tenth from August. The labor market is softening at the exact moment inflation is reaccelerating. That's the stagflation setup, and it's the hardest environment for the Fed to navigate. Keep an eye on jobless claims Thursday.
  

• 🏛️Fed Funds Rate (3.75% to 4.00%)
  The Fed hiked back in September, and Waller says 16 of 18 officials see at least one more hike this year. Fed funds futures are repricing in real time.
  

• 🛢️Brent Crude (above $100)
  Up more than 70% this year. This is the single biggest input into every inflation forecast on your screen. A ceasefire headline cracks it 10%. Another Houthi strike adds another $5. You're trading geopolitics now, not fundamentals.

Market Movers

🏦 Rate Shock Underneath the AI Rally
The S&P is up about 14% year to date, mostly on a handful of megacaps. Underneath, Treasury yields at 20-year highs are breaking the valuation math on everything else.

If AI leadership cracks this week on bank earnings or CPI, there's no cushion beneath it. You should know what you own.

🌍 The Risk Premium You Can't Model
Houthi missiles, Hormuz threats, a stalled Iran deal, a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire that caught Kyiv by surprise. Every one of these moves oil $2 to $5.

Position sizing matters more than directional conviction right now. Don't go all-in on any geopolitical narrative.

💵 Dollar at 18-Month Highs
The DXY is being bid even as the Fed looks increasingly compromised. That's not a vote of confidence; it's a flight from worse options.

Watch the euro, the yen, and the yuan. If one of them cracks, your overseas revenue line gets hit before you can react.

📉 Bank Earnings as the Macro Tell
JPM, GS, WFC, and C all report Tuesday. These are the first real reads on consumer credit, deal flow, and loan loss provisions since the yield spike.

If credit charge-offs tick up, the soft landing story is over. Pay more attention to the provisions than to the EPS beat.

Market Impacts

📈 Equities: The S&P closed Friday near 7,810, just shy of its record and up about 14% on the year, but leadership is thin.

The Dow closed near 51,650 and the Nasdaq near 27,370. The VIX is under 15, which is complacent given everything else on this page. If you're long, this is the week to consider trimming into strength.

🏦 Bonds: Yields at 20-year highs across the curve. 2-year at 4.80%, 10-year at 5.24%, 30-year at 5.60%. The $728 billion of issuance last week cleared, but at a brutal price.

The curve is still mildly positive at 44 basis points. Watch the long end this week for the real signal.

💱 Currencies: The dollar is at an 18-month high. The euro and the yen are both soft against it. If you have unhedged overseas exposure, the FX translation hit on Q3 earnings is going to show up starting Tuesday.

🛢️ Commodities: Gold around $4,210, up about 1.4% Friday but still down slightly on the year. Silver around $61. Copper near $6.73, close to its 52-week high.

Brent near $105, WTI above $91. The whole complex is screaming inflation plus geopolitics plus loss of faith in paper money. That's your signal.

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Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 Tuesday, October 13, Big Bank Earnings. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citi, and Johnson & Johnson all report. First real read on credit quality, trading, and consumer health since the yield spike. Watch loan loss provisions more than headline EPS.
  

• 📅 Wednesday, October 14, September CPI. The main event of the week. Consensus is 3.6% year over year, up from 3.4% in August. A hot print pushes the 10-year through 5.30% and raises the odds of another hike. Fed Beige Book also drops at 2 PM.
  

• 📅 Thursday, October 15, Retail Sales, PPI, Jobless Claims. Three big ones at 8:30 AM. Retail sales tells you whether the consumer is cracking. PPI tells you whether input costs are feeding through. Claims tells you how fast the labor market is actually loosening.
  

• 📅 Friday, October 16, Industrial Production. The Fed's read on manufacturing output. With regional Fed surveys from NY and Philly already in, this triangulates whether the industrial recession narrative has legs.
  

• 📅 Tuesday-Wednesday, October 27-28, FOMC Meeting. The next rate decision. After a September hike and a hawkish dot plot, this week's CPI and retail sales set the tone for whether the Fed moves again in October or waits until December.

Everything Else

• 💵 The U.S. dollar held near an 18-month high as Middle East tensions and persistent inflation concerns supported demand for the greenback.

• 🚗 China and the EU reached a new trade agreement restricting Chinese hybrid vehicle exports, potentially affecting a market worth $7.5 billion in the first half of 2026.

• 💴 India's rupee jumped roughly 1% against the dollar after the central bank introduced new measures to limit dollar demand and currency speculation.

• 📉 Global borrowing costs reached multidecade highs as rising government debt, persistent inflation, and elevated energy prices pressured bond markets.

• 🌍 The global economy faces growing financial risks despite resilient growth, with new Brookings-FT research highlighting mounting debt and inflation pressures.