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🌍 The Big Picture

Minerals

Rare Minerals in Focus as Washington and Kyiv Advance Strategic Deal

The United States and Ukraine signed a new memorandum that sets the stage for a strategic economic agreement centered on critical minerals. The non-binding framework lays the foundation for a comprehensive partnership deal that would support Ukraine’s reconstruction and provide the U.S. with expanded access to key resources, including lithium and titanium.

This agreement signals a shift in Washington’s long-term approach to global supply chains, particularly as the U.S. seeks to reduce its reliance on adversarial markets for rare earth elements. 

Ukraine holds substantial untapped deposits of high-value minerals used in defense, energy, and electronics, making the country a valuable ally in reshaping the global critical minerals map.

Talks around a potential deal had stalled earlier this year amid tensions between the U.S. and Ukrainian leadership. The newly signed memorandum renews momentum, outlining plans for a future Economic Partnership Agreement and creating a joint Investment Fund to support Ukraine’s infrastructure and resource development.

President Donald Trump confirmed the U.S. aims to formalize the deal as soon as April 24, signaling urgency to advance the framework into binding commitments.

For Kyiv, the deal represents an opportunity to attract Western investment and accelerate postwar recovery while aligning with broader European and U.S. strategic goals in energy and resource independence.

Labor Market

Federal Layoffs Reach Post-Pandemic High as Government Restructuring Advances

Federal workforce reductions reached historic levels, driven by sweeping restructuring efforts across multiple agencies. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas data, employers announced 275,240 job cuts during the month, with 216,215 of these coming from the federal government. The total ranks as the second-highest monthly layoff figure since records began in 1989, surpassed only by the early months of the pandemic in 2020.

Much of the activity stems from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a federal entity focused on reducing public sector employment. Over the past two months, DOGE has been associated with 280,000 announced job cuts across 27 government agencies. The Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of Veterans Affairs, the Treasury Department, and the IRS face significant reductions.

The workforce impact has been concentrated in the Washington, D.C. area, which has reported 278,711 layoffs year to date, according to the Challenger report. Year-over-year, announced public sector cuts have surged more than 670%.

While the layoffs represent a structural shift in federal employment policy, broader labor market indicators remain relatively stable. Weekly unemployment claims and payroll growth have remained within expected ranges nationally, and job openings, although cooling, continue to be near pre-pandemic levels.

The restructuring aims to reduce administrative overhead and streamline agency operations. Federal officials have not yet outlined follow-up phases or additional reduction targets. Further data is expected in upcoming labor reports.

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Energy Trade

LNG Shipments From America to China Drop to Zero

The United States has seen its liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to China drop to zero since early February, as rising trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs have disrupted global energy flows.

Shipping records show that the last American LNG shipment arrived in China on February 6, marking a complete halt in U.S. deliveries to the world’s largest energy importer. Trade data indicates that Chinese firms actively avoid U.S. cargoes and offload previously purchased volumes to Europe and other regions.

This shift stems from escalating tariffs imposed during the ongoing U.S.–China trade dispute, which has increasingly targeted key sectors such as energy. Analysts now warn that the disruption could carry lasting implications for future U.S. LNG infrastructure projects, many of which rely on long-term purchase agreements to secure financing.

Once active buyers of U.S. LNG, Chinese energy companies have cooled on new commitments. Instead, they are pivoting toward long-term deals with producers in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, creating headwinds for future American export capacity.

At the same time, overall LNG demand in China remains subdued due to high winter storage levels and slower industrial activity. Forecasts from BloombergNEF suggest the country may see a year-over-year decline in LNG imports, its first since 2022.

The current situation highlights growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. energy exports amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Without resolution, American LNG suppliers may struggle to re-enter a key global market they once counted on for growth.

📊 Metrics to Watch

• Container Bookings: Global container ship bookings are down 20% already, with the current volume mostly consisting of pre-booked cargo.

• CBOE Volatility Index: The VIX closed above 30 for 10 consecutive days for the first time since October 2022, indicating that turbulence is here to stay.

• Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: Likewise, the EPU reached an all-time high, breaking 600, well above its early COVID-era peak of 500.

• Stagflation: Former Fed and Bank of England economist Adam Posen puts the odds of a stagflationary recession at 65%.

🚀 Market Movers

• 🏦 The Fed Isn’t Coming to the Rescue: Jerome Powell dashed rate-cut hopes this week, saying that he plans to “wait for greater clarity” before adjusting the central bank’s current interest rate trajectory. Powell’s refusal to budge further risks his troubled relationship with Trump; a standoff between the two could spook international investors, who, fearing political instability, may withdraw capital from U.S. markets. 

• 🛳️ Docking Fees: If astronomical import tariffs weren’t enough, docking fees as high as $1.5 million may be levied on Chinese-built cargo ships sailing to U.S. ports. China manufactures as much as 75% of the global logistics fleet, meaning price hikes could put the squeeze on nearly all goods arriving at American ports from international shipping lanes.

• 🏠 Home Prices Falling: Mortgage rates made their highest ever one-week jump to 6.83% this week, putting further pressure on prospective homebuyers facing steep mortgage costs. That’s helping some hot housing markets cool, though, as data from Zillow shows 25% of listed properties in areas like Florida, California, and Texas cut prices in March.

• 🔨 Building Slowdowns: To that end, new build starts fell 11.4% in March as increased supply costs, lagging demand, and excess inventory forced developers into a holding pattern. April is typically the beginning of residential building’s busy season as the weather warms, but that trend may not hold this year.

Tech Titans & Politics (Sponsored)

Elon Strikes Back

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⚡ Market Impacts

• Equities: Antitrust scrutiny is rattling tech stocks, despite hopes for a more “hands-off” regulatory approach from the Trump administration. Meta (NASDAQ: META) is facing scrutiny from the FTC for social media monopolization stemming from its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp in the 2010s. Now, Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) is back in the hot seat, facing a second round of claims that it has a monopoly in the illegal ad market. Increased oversight isn’t a bad thing, but it could hamper corporate expansion appetite in an already constrained environment.

• Bonds: Municipal bonds are facing increased interest rate demands from institutional investors as the historically lower-yield income instruments become vulnerable to market volatility. A recent school infrastructure muni bond sale saw yields spike from 3.8% to 5.11%, putting local development projects at risk and increasing resident tax demands.     

• Currencies: Japan struck back against accusations of manipulation aimed at weakening the yen against the dollar; Trump had previously implied that the nation had depreciated its currency to improve export prospects. The back-and-forth came before next week’s planned visit by the Japanese Finance Minister to Washington to kick off trade and tariff negotiations.   

• Commodities: Ukrainian officials say they are nearly ready to finalize an agreement giving the U.S. top access to valuable local mineral deposits, such as nickel and lithium, in exchange for the military support provided over the past few years. A first run at mining rights in Ukraine could go a long way toward offsetting China’s recent ban on metal and mineral exports.  

🗓️ Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 China Exports (March) – April 13th: China publishes its first export report since tariffs began.

• 📅 Consumer Inflation Expectations – April 14th: Informal surveys already indicate a spike in inflation expectations across American demographics. 

• 📅 U.S. Leading Indicators (March) – April 21st: The LEI steadily declined since January; expect more of the same for March.

🧩 Everything Else

• Regulators tentatively approved a merger between Capital One and Discover, creating the largest single credit card company in the United States.

• Insiders say that former Fed governor Kevin Warsh is Trump’s top pick to succeed Powell as Fed head.  

• U.S. officials may slash Russian sanctions as part of a Ukraine deal, reopening the closed trade relationship.

• Private equity may be in for a slump following its multi-year bull run as new deals slow and investor capital gets tied up. 

• India might be one of the few emerging market nations that benefit from Trump’s tariffs.