The good news is that mortgages slid to ~11-month lows, and the Fed is still poised to ease.

Your playbook this week is to keep duration working, lean into quality risk, and be choosy where tariffs, housing inventories, and consumer fatigue can nick margins.

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The Big Picture

Energy

From Slow Burn to Full Throttle: U.S. Nuclear Gets Its Breakout

The U.S. has just added fresh fuel to its energy security tank.

A new partnership with the UK is speeding up nuclear projects, cutting red tape, and strengthening supply chains on both sides of the Atlantic.

Think of it as the U.S. doubling down on nuclear and not just as clean power, but as economic muscle.

Cutting the Wait, Boosting the Build

Licensing times that once dragged on for years can now be reduced to about two.

That matters for U.S. firms like BWXT and TerraPower, who gain a smoother path for exports and new builds.

Faster approvals mean faster jobs, faster investment, and a stronger edge in the global energy race. For Washington, it’s also a clear play to lock in resilience and cut reliance on unstable foreign supply.

Jobs, Supply Chains, and Security

The numbers aren’t small. Thousands of jobs, billions in investment, and a tighter Western supply chain for nuclear fuels and reactors.

By joining forces, the U.S. is creating a market environment where homegrown innovation has a shorter runway to lift off.

It’s also a signal to rivals that America intends to anchor its clean energy future with nuclear at the core.

The bottom line? The U.S. is pressing its claim as the heavyweight in advanced nuclear—and making sure the next energy boom happens in its backyard.

Semiconductor

Who Really Controls the World’s Chips? Beijing Just Raised the Stakes

China just cranked up the heat in the ongoing semiconductor standoff with the U.S., launching two new investigations into American chip imports.

On paper, it’s about “dumping” and “discrimination.” In reality, it’s Beijing’s way of putting Washington on notice before the next round of trade talks in Madrid.

For U.S. suppliers like Texas Instruments and Analog Devices, the timing stings.

These firms count China as one of their biggest markets, and the risk of new tariffs or import restrictions could take a real bite out of sales.

Pressure on Both Sides of the Board

While Washington has been busy blacklisting Chinese firms and tightening export controls, Beijing is now signaling it won’t just absorb the hits and it’ll swing back.

Legacy Chinese chipmakers, who’ve struggled to compete on price, suddenly see an opening if U.S. imports get squeezed.

The broader story? Tech is no longer just about innovation. It’s the new frontline of economic statecraft, with semiconductors at the center of a global chess match.

What It Means for the U.S.

The American chip industry now faces the uncomfortable mix of losing access to a massive market while navigating higher compliance costs at home.

That’s not just a corporate headache, and it’s a macroeconomic ripple that affects supply chains, investment, and ultimately, U.S. competitiveness in tech.

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Consumer

Why Your Coffee, Jeans, and Car Parts All Cost More This Month

American households are starting to feel a squeeze that isn’t just about gas or rent.

From groceries to gadgets, tariffs are finding their way into the price tags that shape everyday life.

Inflation data out this week shows a steady rise across categories tied to imports, making the “middle-class squeeze” harder to ignore.

What’s Getting Hit

The Bureau of Labor Statistics flagged apparel, auto parts, furniture, and tools as standouts, each climbing between 0.3% and 0.8% in just a month.

Coffee spiked 3.6% up a jaw-dropping 20% compared to last year, while groceries notched their biggest monthly rise since 2022.

The increases sound small on paper, but they add up fast when stacked across the cart.

The Bigger Picture

Here’s the kicker: these price hikes are landing just as the labor market is cooling.

More Americans are holding onto their jobs tightly, spending less on extras, and reshuffling budgets to cover basics.

With consumer spending driving two-thirds of the U.S. economy, that caution doesn’t just ripple; it shakes the whole system.

The Fed now faces a tricky balance to keep its eyes on inflation or step in to cushion a slowing job market.

Either way, households are paying more today for the same basket of goods they bought last year.

Metrics to Watch

• CPI Follow-Through: August’s 2.9% headline (core 3.1%) didn’t blow up the cutting case, but it argues for a measured pace. If goods inflation keeps grinding higher from tariff pass-through, the Fed will stay gradual even if they cut next week.

• Jobless Claims (Thurs): Initial claims popped to 263k, the highest since Oct ’21. One week doesn’t make a trend, but a second high print would confirm labor softening and keep back-to-back cuts on the table.

• Mortgage Rates & Apps: 30-yr fixed slid to ~6.35%. Watch purchase apps and refi interest—housing is still affordability-capped, but even small rate relief can unfreeze pockets of demand.

• Homebuilder Margins: Builders are discounting hard in the South/West (overbuild + incentives) while the Midwest/Northeast stay tight. Monitor incentives vs. ASPs on upcoming prints, margin pressure is the tell.

• Trade Tensions (Mexico–China): Mexico’s proposed tariff hikes and Beijing’s warning keep the tariff channel alive. Any escalation = more pricing noise in autos/industrial supply chains into Q4.

Market Movers

🧾 Claims Spike, Cut Case
Claims at 263k reinforce a September cut; the question is cadence, not direction. Keep 2–5yr duration overweight vs. cash, and you can favor A/BBB credit over HY beta while labor wobbles.

🏠 Mortgages Down, Housing Mixed
Sub-6.5% rates help, but affordability + regional gluts (South/West) keep builders leaning on buy-downs.

I would prefer suppliers with Midwest/East exposure and you should avoid names reliant on heavy incentives.

📈 CPI Firm, Not On Fire
2.9% headline with core 3.1% keeps “cuts, not a slashing cycle.” In this type of environment, you should know that quality growth > high-beta.

Feel free to own some gold as a policy/vol hedge, and stay tactical into tariff-sensitive goods.

🧱 Inventory Geography Matters
Tight Northeast/Midwest vs. looser South/West is showing up in days-on-market and price per sq. ft.

That can mean a barbell strategy here, with regional winners + defensive REITs with balance-sheet strength to help your portfolio.

🚢 Tariff Cross-Currents
Mexico’s proposed hikes and China’s response risk new frictions. You should favor firms with diversified sourcing or domestic supply chains, and watch autos/industrial margins for early cracks.

Market Impacts

Equities: Futures are basically shrugging after a record close for the Nasdaq, tiny green, tiny red, as everyone waits on the Fed.

Last week’s rally was classic “bad news is good news”: softer jobs + cooler PPI lifted cut odds, and AI’s still doing the heavy lifting (Oracle’s cloud glow-up didn’t hurt).

With the S&P 500 just off highs and the meeting Wednesday, the vibe is “add, but don’t chase.”

Play it smart and keep leaning into cash-rich mega-cap compounders and have a little dry powder ready in case Powell tosses a curveball.

Bonds: Treasuries are caught between firmer CPI and wobblier jobs. After Thursday’s drop, yields ticked higher into the weekend (~4.06% 10-yr, ~3.56% 2-yr, ~4.68% 30-yr), but the market still has a 25 bps cut at near-lock.

A benign Fed statement + steady dots likely nudges term premium lower; any hint of “we’re not in a hurry” could steepen the long end.

Tactics for you could be to add a touch of 2–5y on backups and keep some 30-yr hedges if inflation chatter re-flares.

Currencies: The dollar did a little pre-weekend position-squaring bounce (think USD/JPY mid-147s; DXY ~97.6), but the bigger picture still tilts negative if the Fed opens the door to more cuts.

Into Wednesday: a dovish press conference = USD drift lower, EUR/CHF firmer; a “one-and-watch” tone = quick USD pop and growth FX wobble.

If you’re trading it, keep timeframes tight.

Commodities: Gold’s still wearing the crown, hovering near all-time highs as “soft jobs + imminent cuts + policy noise” makes duration and diversifiers look good.

We like a measured gold ballast here. Oil bounced on fresh geopolitics, but inventory builds and a supply-heavy backdrop are capping enthusiasm (Brent ~67, WTI ~63).

This means it might be better for you to sell the rips unless you see real supply disruption and favor refiners/transport over high-beta upstream until demand data stops softening.

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Key Indicators to Watch

📅 Empire State Manufacturing (Mon, 8:30 a.m. ET)
Consensus: 4.5 (prior 11.9). A cool-off would fit the “slowing but not collapsing” narrative; watch new orders vs. prices paid for margin read-through.

📅 Retail Sales (Tue, 8:30 a.m. ET)
Consensus: +0.3% headline, +0.4% ex-autos. With real incomes tight and tariff pass-throughs creeping in, a miss says “consumer is tiring” and supports a gentler Fed path.

📅 Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Tue, 9:15 a.m. ET)
Consensus: -0.1% IP; 77.4% cap-util. Soft prints reinforce a cooling goods cycle, good for duration, tougher for cyclicals tied to factory output.

📅 Housing Starts & Building Permits (Wed, 8:30 a.m. ET)
Consensus: 1.37M starts; 1.37M permits. With mortgage rates off the highs but affordability still rough, a stabilization helps home-adjacent equities; a slide keeps the housing drag alive.

📅 FOMC Decision & Powell Presser (Wed, 2:00/2:30 p.m. ET)
Base case: -25 bps to 4.00%–4.25%. The message matters more than the move, “cut and likely more to come” = risk-on/dollar softer; “cut and pause to assess” = fade the recent euphoria.

Everything Else

• The UK economy stalled in July, showing how momentum is fading as higher borrowing costs and weak demand weigh on growth.

• The ECB held rates steady for a second meeting, keeping its key rate at 2% while signaling risks to growth are more balanced.

• Revised data show the U.S. economy may be weaker than thought, with 1.2 million fewer jobs than previously reported.

• Fed officials worry the economy could be drifting into stagnation rather than stagflation, complicating the outlook for policy.

• The U.S. budget deficit narrowed to $345 billion in August, with higher tariff revenues helping offset spending pressures.