• Macro Notes
  • Posts
  • Three Percent and a Green Light For Your Portfolio

Three Percent and a Green Light For Your Portfolio

Author

Noah Zelvis
October 29, 2025

In partnership with

September inflation came in at 3.0% year over year, hotter than August’s 2.9%, but cooler than the 3.1% economists penciled in.

Core landed at 3.0% too. So not great, not terrible… and likely good enough for another Fed trim next week.

Pelosi Made 178% While Your 401(k) Crashed

Nancy Pelosi: Up 178% on TEM options
Marjorie Taylor Greene: Up 134% on PLTR
Cleo Fields: Up 138% on IREN

Meanwhile, retail investors got crushed on CNBC's "expert" picks.

The uncomfortable truth: Politicians don't just make laws. They make fortunes.

AltIndex reports every single Congress filing without fail and updates their data constantly.

Then their AI factors those Congress trades into the AI stock ratings on the AltIndex app.

We’ve partnered with AltIndex to get our readers free access to their app for a limited time.

Congress filed 7,810 new stock buys this year as of July.

Don’t miss out on direct access to their playbooks!

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk including possible loss of principal.

What the CPI is Whispering

Month over month, headline rose 0.3% and core 0.2%. Some tariff-sensitive stuff popped. Apparel (+0.7% m/m), furniture/bedding (+0.9%), sporting goods (+1.0%).

Coffee’s up ~19% y/y and beef ~15% y/y, which is exactly what your grocery bill has been trying to tell you. 

The report was late thanks to the shutdown, and we may not even get an October CPI, so expect more trading on vibes and private surveys for a bit.

Stay Up to Speed on Macro News!

We now send our macro-focused news via text, so you’re never far from the latest market-moving action.

Tariffs, Pass-Throughs, and Why Your Wallet Still Winces

Companies aren’t passing through every penny of tariff costs, but they’re not eating all of it either. CFOs are guiding to bigger price hikes next year than they would without tariffs.

Meanwhile wage gains for middle and lower earners have cooled, so even 3% inflation still stings. That’s why sentiment is just okay despite better than feared prints.

Trivia: Which U.S. president signed the Federal Reserve Act?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Limited Free Access (Sponsored)

What if your next stock pick could double faster than you expect?

Analysts have just released a new 5-stock report revealing companies showing powerful growth signals — the kind that often precede massive breakouts.

These handpicked stocks share one thing in common: strong fundamentals paired with technical setups pointing toward major upside potential.

Historically, this research team’s past reports have uncovered winners with gains reaching +498% and +673%.¹

But this new list is already attracting attention — and the free access window closes at midnight.

[Get the 5 Stocks to Double Report – Free Access Here]

*This free resource is being sent by Zacks. We identify investment resources you may choose to use in making your own decisions. Use of this resource is subject to the Zacks Terms of Service.
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk. This material does not constitute investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed dealer, broker, or investment adviser.

What This Means For Your Money

  • Cuts still coming: A softer-than-feared CPI plus a wobbly jobs tape keep the door open for another 25 bps.

  • Rates glide, not dive: Mortgages and other long rates can drift lower, but don’t expect an elevator ride.

  • Winners for this tape: Pricing power, trade-down retail, and picks-and-shovels that benefit as rates ease and volumes thaw.

  • Losers: Thin-margin importers that can’t raise prices, and heavy leverage that needs refinancing soon.

Quiet Giant Rise (Sponsored)

I’d like to give you a free copy of our brand-new report: 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days.

Since 1988, our proven stock-ranking system has more than doubled the S&P 500, generating average annual gains of +24.2%.

This just-released Special Report reveals the 7 most explosive stocks currently ranked as Strong Buys. 

Fewer than 5% of stocks ever qualify.

These could be the most exciting short-term trades you’ll see all month.

Don’t make your next move without seeing them first.?

[Download Your FREE Copy Now]

Quick Playbook

  • Stage buys in thirds around data/Fed headlines.

  • Favor cash-rich, price-flexible operators.

  • Keep a 3–7 year bond ladder as ballast, add T-bills for optionality.

  • If you’re refinancing, don’t over-optimize, as locking a decent drop beats chasing perfection.

Top Picks

Walmart (NYSE: WMT) — Everyday Value Meets Pricing Power

When inflation nags, trade-down accelerates, and Walmart is where that spend lands. Scale gives it vendor leverage and room to absorb select tariff bumps without nuking traffic.

Grocery (where wallets really feel it) is a loyalty anchor, while advertising, membership, and marketplace services pad margins beyond the sticker on a gallon of milk. 

If the Fed trims and wallets breathe, Walmart still wins; if the economy skids, it captures share. Quiet compounding with multiple ways to defend gross margin in a choppy cost environment.

Kroger (NYSE: KR) — Private Label as an Inflation Antidote

Food inflation hits hardest, and KR’s “Our Brands” lineup is the customer’s pressure valve.

Trade-down from national brands lifts mix, data/loyalty targeting keeps baskets full, and the Albertsons deal optionality (timing/outcome aside) underscores longer-run scale economics. 

Tariff ripples on packaged goods are real, but procurement muscle and promo science help KR smooth them.

Add resilient cash flow and buybacks, and you’ve got a steady operator geared to the way households actually cope with higher prices.

Prologis (NYSE: PLD) — The Warehouse Behind Every Click

If tariffs reshuffle supply chains and firms carry a bit more inventory, you need modern logistics space.

PLD is the category captain: infill locations, development pipeline, and embedded rent uplifts from below-market leases. 

It’s rate-sensitive, yes, but that’s the point.

A gentle Fed downshift lowers the REIT’s funding costs while e-commerce, near-shoring, and inventory normalization keep demand durable.

You’re not betting on housing booms or fiscal fireworks, just on boxes moving predictably through better-located boxes.

Genuine Parts (NYSE: GPC) — Fixing Cars Beats Buying New Ones

Used-car prices cooled, financing is still pricey, and consumers are stretching vehicle lifespans.

That’s GPC’s sweet spot. Its NAPA network serves pros and DIYers with a long tail of SKUs and same-day availability, critical when a shop bay is idle.

This is classic do fine in slowdowns, do fine in recoveries defensiveness: parts fail regardless, and miles driven trend up over time.

Pricing power on mission-critical components plus disciplined working capital make it a steady free-cash machine.

Risk Management

  1. Size defensives (WMT/KR) larger than cyclicals (PLD/GPC) if you worry the job market weakens.

  2. Use standing limit orders around Fed day, as the first move is often the wrong move.

  3. Revisit your emergency cash: 3–6 months in T-bills or HYSAs keeps you from selling good assets into bad days.

Coffee-Napkin Takeaways

  • Inflation is sticky but softer than feared; a cut next week stays on track.

  • Tariffs keep select categories hot, while wages cool, consumer mood stays fragile.

  • Play pricing power, trade-down behavior, and rate-sensitive winners with real moats.

  • Stage entries, keep quality, and let compounding do the heavy lifting.

That’s it for today’s edition—thanks for reading! Reply to this email with any feedback or let me know which macro trends or markets you’d like me to cover next.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Macro Notes