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The Big Picture

Agriculture

U.S. Dairy Trade Risks Reignite as Supply Talks Hit a Nerve 

U.S. dairy exporters may once again find themselves caught in a broader trade tug-of-war as Canada’s supply management policies resurface in high-level negotiations.

While recent legislative changes in Ottawa aimed to protect the system from becoming a bargaining chip, analysts say market access for American producers remains a live issue.

Canada’s approach tightly controls domestic dairy output and imposes steep tariffs on imports above strict quotas.

Though the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) granted U.S. dairy limited access to Canadian shelves, disputes over how those quotas are allocated have persisted for years.

Washington has repeatedly challenged Canada’s practices, arguing that they undercut the spirit of the agreement and restrict competition.

For U.S. dairy processors and cooperatives, Canada remains a lucrative but constrained market.

Products such as high-protein milk powders, specialty cheeses, and butterfat-rich ingredients have found demand north of the border, but opportunities remain limited by ongoing policy hurdles.

Trade friction, even without formal tariffs, heightens uncertainty for producers seeking to increase export volumes in a period of tight margins and shifting global demand.

Although Canada’s parliament passed measures to insulate its supply management regime from future negotiations, experts believe the framework may still be revisited if larger economic agreements require it.

Digital Assets

Stablecoin Boom Gets Washington’s Blessing, Reshaping U.S. Financial Plumbing 

The GENIUS Act, passed by the U.S. Senate and moving toward full approval, lays the foundation for federally regulated, dollar-pegged stablecoins.

The policy marks a turning point in how digital assets tie into the U.S. financial system and how Washington plans to manage their rapid expansion.

Stablecoins, which are crypto tokens backed one-to-one by U.S. dollars or short-term government securities, are already dominant in digital payment rails.

Under the GENIUS Act, their peg must be tied to the U.S. dollar, and reserves must be held in U.S. Treasury instruments or insured cash equivalents.

That framework is expected to deepen demand for Treasuries at a time when the federal government is running sustained deficits.

More than 98% of all existing stablecoins are already dollar-linked, but most are issued and transacted offshore.

With regulatory clarity, U.S.-based issuers are expected to scale up, attracting new entrants from the payment technology, fintech banking, and institutional custody sectors.

For U.S. policy watchers, the GENIUS Act formalizes a new asset class while anchoring it to the dollar.

Its rollout could shift capital flows, drive the development of new digital financial infrastructure, and provide the Treasury with a stable source of demand, all without requiring new taxes or foreign investment.

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Solar

Tight Deadlines and Weak Support Raise Alarm Across U.S. Clean Energy Sector 

Federal policy shifts are casting a long shadow over the U.S. solar manufacturing sector.

Newly passed legislation cuts key incentives that supported domestic solar projects, weakening the foundation built under earlier clean energy laws.

Among the most impactful changes is the removal of the Domestic Content bonus, a provision that previously encouraged developers to source panels and components from U.S.-based manufacturers.

While production tax credits for component makers remain, industry groups warn that the revised rules sharply reduce the long-term demand outlook for American-made solar hardware.

Under current provisions, utility-scale projects must begin construction before June 2026 to qualify for the full tax credit regime.

Projects must also be operational by the end of 2027.

That compressed timeline adds pressure to developers already navigating permitting delays and grid interconnection bottlenecks.

With U.S. energy consumption rising and 90% of new power generation last year coming from renewables, any slowdown in solar deployment could tighten future supply.

Without stronger policy clarity, American manufacturers face steeper competition from lower-cost Chinese imports.

The long-term implications extend beyond project pipelines; they could define the role the U.S. plays in the global clean energy supply chain.

Metrics to Watch

• June Jobs: June’s job market showed a strong end to Q2, adding 147,000 nonfarm payroll jobs (nearly 40% above economist projections!).  

• Unemployment Rate Dipped: Likewise, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, compared to the expected 4.3%. 

• July Rate Cuts off the Table: That said, surprising labor economy strength means that July rate cut prospects fell to 5%, down from 24% odds prior to today’s report. 

• Bank Stress Test Boosts Dividends: The nation’s biggest banks announced hefty dividend hikes and expanded buyback programs as regulators eased capital requirements and unlocked cash.

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Market Movers

🛍️ Retail Rallies on Trade Deal: A U.S.-Vietnam trade deal announced this week drops tariffs on Vietnamese goods from 46% to 20%, offering relief to the retail sector, particularly apparel and furniture firms reliant on Vietnamese manufacturing. 

Note that a 40% tariff on transshipping introduces supply chain risks, as ambiguous rules around goods routed through Vietnam could raise costs for retailers dependent on global logistics.

🪙 Tokenization Tests Fintech Boundaries: Fintech popped this week following a unique financialization scheme, specifically blockchain-based tokenization gained traction, like Robinhood’s launch of tokenized shares for private companies like OpenAI in the EU. 

OpenAI’s swift disavowal, clarifying that these tokens don’t represent equity, could be an opening salvo in a protracted legal battle with retail traders (the bulk of those interested in these tokens) in the middle. 

🥶 Tech IPOs Signal Market Thaw: Tech is running hot again, driven by a wave of high-performing IPOs and a recovering venture capital ecosystem following years of subdued exits. 

Circle and CoreWeave’s post-listing bull run, alongside Figma’s IPO filing, reflects growing investor confidence in high-growth tech, but while they offer VC liquidity, uneven performance among smaller IPOs like Hinge Health makes them a risky opening-day play.

🏡 Real Estate Legal Battles: The real estate sector is seeing (more) turbulence as lawsuits against Zillow and the National Association of Realtors challenged the transparency of home listings amid a sluggish housing market. 

Firms like Compass and ThePLS.com advocate for private listings, arguing for seller privacy, while platforms like Zillow emphasize that public listings maximize exposure and prices and make ongoing demand issues even trickier for sellers.

Market Impacts

The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT) may have had a rough go in 2025’s first half, but, with the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal lowering tariffs to 20%, component companies in the apparel and furniture segments stand to benefit.

Lower tariffs enhance profit margins for firms like Nike, Wayfair, On Holding, and Williams-Sonoma.

XRT tracks the S&P Retail Select Industry Index and offers diversified exposure to apparel and home furnishing retailers that will see a pop from this deal, as well as a range of peripheral sub-sectors to offset volatility. 

The ETF’s focus on companies with strong fundamentals aligns with the sector’s renewed and improved outlook, though investors should monitor transshipping tariff impacts.

XRT rose about 5% over the past week, with action starting after the trade deal’s announcement.

• Expense Ratio: 0.35%, or $35 per $10,000 invested.

• TTM Yield: 1.39% 

• Total Assets: $292.6 million 

• YTD Performance: +1.29%, though pre-deal performance sat at a ~2.5% loss, pointing to momentum rising.

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Key Indicators to Watch

• 📅 Market Holiday – July 4th: Remember, markets are closed tomorrow for Independence Day - stay safe and get some rest for the week ahead! 

• 📅 NFIB Optimism Index (June) – July 8th: Will improved labor market trends carry over to SMB optimism? We’ll find out on Tuesday. 

• 📅 Consumer Credit (May) – July 8th: Wages increased in the recent jobs report, which may improve the steady drop in consumer creditworthiness.

Everything Else

• Government sector jobs were June’s big winner, adding to the bulk of labor force growth.

• One well-loved gaming stock may be hardest hit following Vietnam trade deal developments, even after its win against Amazon. 

• Medicare cuts could put a dent in big pharma and biotech stocks. 

• Treasuries took a beating following the jobs announcement, dropping enthusiasm in bond markets. 

• In geopolitical news, Mexican banks are having a tough time following Trump’s sanctions based on accusations of cartel money laundering.