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$100 Brent And A 5.35% Ten-Year Just Broke Your Pivot Trade

$100 Brent And A 5.35% Ten-Year Just Broke Your Pivot Trade

Oil, the dollar, and hawkish minutes hit on the same tape. Here is what gets repriced.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
Inflation Just Moved From the Pump to the Service Counter

Inflation Just Moved From the Pump to the Service Counter

Service-sector prices just ran at their hottest pace since 2022. Four names get paid for it.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
Wednesday's FOMC Minutes Will Decide Whether Your Rally Survives

Wednesday's FOMC Minutes Will Decide Whether Your Rally Survives

One release Wednesday afternoon settles the hawkish-versus-dovish fight for the next two months.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The Deal Machine Split In Two, And The Market Sold Both Halves

The Deal Machine Split In Two, And The Market Sold Both Halves

Dealmaking just had its slowest quarter in over a year. The firms that run it already paid for it.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
Shoppers Are Paying More And Buying Less, And Q4 Earnings Will Show It

Shoppers Are Paying More And Buying Less, And Q4 Earnings Will Show It

Holiday sales are headed for a record, and most of that gain is just higher prices.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The 5% World Just Arrived and Most Portfolios Aren't Built For It

The 5% World Just Arrived and Most Portfolios Aren't Built For It

Two macro forces are setting up the biggest regime shift of the year. Here's where to hide.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
The Dollar Is Winning Every Fight Except The One That Actually Matters

The Dollar Is Winning Every Fight Except The One That Actually Matters

Reserve preference is shifting under your feet and long yields are the only tell left.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
Higher For Longer Just Became Higher Forever

Higher For Longer Just Became Higher Forever

The setup that's rewriting every price on your screen. Plus the four names built to survive it.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
Yields Reset Higher, and Every Valuation Model Just Got Rewritten

Yields Reset Higher, and Every Valuation Model Just Got Rewritten

A global yield reset, a 38% crude run, and a payrolls print all hit the same week.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
What If the War Ends?

What If the War Ends?

The whole market is positioned for a long war. Here's your hedge if Hormuz reopens.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
The Week Japan Stopped Being the World's Cheapest Lender

The Week Japan Stopped Being the World's Cheapest Lender

Japan's bond yields just hit a 30-year high, and your US portfolio sits on the other end of it.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The Market's Safety Cushion Just Disappeared

The Market's Safety Cushion Just Disappeared

Stocks and the 10-year now pay you about the same. That changes which stocks deserve your money.

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