Macro Analysis

The Fed Stayed Put, And That “Wait” Is Doing A Lot Of Work

Powell’s Exit Door Is Open, And The Rate Path Just Got A Little Softer

Warsh’s path is clearing, the Fed’s tone could change, and flat-to-lower rates now look like the cleaner bet.

USMCA Was Supposed To Be Settled, Now It’s Back On The Table

Gas Did The Heavy Lifting, But The Consumer Still Showed Up

March retail sales jumped 1.7%, but gas stations did a lot of the work. The real read is more selective.

Consumers Hit The Brakes Before The Economy Did

Gas Lit The CPI, And The Fed Just Lost Its Easy Excuse

March CPI hit 3.3%, gas did the shouting, and real wages took a hit. Here’s the smarter play.

Cease-Fire, Full Tank, Empty Wallet, Why Relief Still Has A Delay Setting

March Put The “Boom” In Jobs, But Healthcare Still Did Most Of The Heavy Lifting

March bounced hard, but the labor market is still running on one main engine and a lot of weather luck.

Home Prices Hit The Brakes, But Mortgage Rates Floored It

Consumer Confidence Ran Out Of Gas Before The Economy Did

Sentiment fell in March as fuel costs jumped and wealthier households felt the market wobble.

Rate Cuts Took The Exit, And A Hike Just Pulled Into The Parking Lot

Diesel Just Went Full Drama Queen, And The Economy Is About To Pick Up The Tab

Diesel topped $5, truckers are sweating, and the next inflation wave may arrive by highway.