Macro Analysis

The Stagflation Playbook You Now Need

The old playbook just got shredded. Here's what top investors are repositioning for now.

The Grain Rally Is Real: The Farm Balance Sheet Is Not

Grain prices are at 52-week highs, and the farm still cannot pay its bills. That gap is your trade.

The Bond Market Is Now Underwriting The AI Boom

The AI boom stopped being an equity story this year. It is a credit story now.

The Two-Lane Economy Most Portfolios Are Missing

One guy just drove a Ferrari off the lot. The other maxed out Klarna on back-to-school shoes. Both are moving markets.

The $100 Barrel Is Forcing Warsh's Hand

Crude just kissed triple digits. Hike odds are climbing. Your book needs to catch up. Fast.

The AI Buildout Is Being Financed On Your Yield Curve

The AI buildout is being financed in the bond market, and the bill lands on the duration you own.

How Oil Just Put a Rate Hike Back on the Table

Two weeks ago, this Fed meeting was a snoozer. Now it's the most consequential in three years.

Stagflation Is Back, and Your 60/40 Is Not Built For It

Bonds are breaking. Crude won't quit. Here is how to reposition before the Fed meets.

The Commodity Move That's Bigger Than Gold

Gold got the headlines. But the real scarcity trade is playing out across the whole periodic table.

The Consumer Is Splitting In Two, And Your Portfolio Should Reflect It

Under the AI melt-up, half the country is out of cash. Here's the split trade.

The Housing Crack That Just Changed the Fed's Math

Something cracked in the economy this month. And the Fed is now cornered.

The Job Market Froze and Nobody Rang a Bell