Macro Analysis

The Bond Market Just Called BS on the Stock Rally

Stocks are popping champagne while one trillion-dollar market quietly heads for the exit.

When the War Premium Breaks, Here's What Wins

Crude rallied. Gold pushed toward $4,200 before pulling back. Now the White House is hinting at a deal with Tehran, and the unwind of the war premium could define the rest of the summer for stocks, bonds, and commodities.

Housing Got A Bounce. Affordability Is Still The Ceiling.

Home sales jumped in May, but high prices and volatile mortgage rates still cap the recovery.

The Stagflation Trade Wall Street Stopped Believing In Just Came Back

Growth Slowed, but Profits Didn’t

GDP was revised lower, but corporate profits are still climbing. That split matters.

Housing Prices Are Finally Slowing. Affordability Still Isn’t Fixed.

Stocks Are At Records, but Consumers Are In A Recession Mood

Stocks are hitting records while sentiment hits a 70-year low. That gap is the whole story.

China’s Economy Is Sending A Warning From The Factory Floor

Warsh Wants Lower Rates, but the Economy Is Not Cooperating

Kevin Warsh wants easier policy, but inflation, jobs, and the bond market are pushing back.

The Pay Raise Just Got Eaten At The Pump

The Jobs Market Just Took Rate Cuts Off The Table

Hiring beat expectations, unemployment held steady, and the Fed just got more reason to wait.

AI Layoffs Are Here, And The Market Is Picking Winners